<< Back to Clans Forum   Search

Posts 10 - 39 of 380   <<Prev   1  2  3  ...  7  ...  12  13  Next >>   
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/12/2017 23:51:21


Math Wolf 
Level 63
Report
Predictions based on 90 respondents:

           1    2    3    4    5    6    7 mean   sd        
Masters 78.9 14.4  4.4  1.1  0.0  0.0  1.1 1.33 0.85
Lynx    13.3 56.7 15.6  7.8  3.3  3.3  0.0 2.41 1.13
Turtles  3.3 15.6 52.2 17.8 11.1  0.0  0.0 3.18 0.94
French   2.2  6.7 16.7 34.4 21.1 16.7  2.2 4.24 1.29
Outlaws  0.0  2.2  7.8 20.0 28.9 21.1 20.0 5.19 1.31
One      1.1  3.3  3.3 16.7 22.2 38.9 14.4 5.30 1.29
Blitz    2.2  1.1  1.1  3.3 13.3 17.8 61.1 6.22 1.30

Most respondents put Masters first (71, 78.9%) and their average ranking is 1.33. Additionally, only 6 out of 90 respondents put them lower than second, with the respondent that put them 7th basically reversing the general belief in his ranking.

Lynx is a convincing second as well, the only clan in any division to get more than 50 votes (51) on a single position that is not first or last. If they don't finish second, it could go either way, but with more people putting them 3rd or lower (27 (30%)) than first (12 (13.3%))

Turtles are predicted 3rd more than all other positions together as well. Just like Lynx, they are more likely to finish worst (28.9%) than better (18.9%) if the respondents have it correct, but the difference is smaller in their case. Everyone puts them at least 5th, meaning they are predicted to not relegate by every single respondent, something no other clan in A, nor B, can say.

French is a little more spread out, getting at least 2 votes on every position but nicely mirrored around the most chosen option and final rank 4th. As is usual by now, they also are slightly more often predicted to rank lower rather than higher than their most chosen rank.

Outlaws are ranked fifth here, but it's worth noting that the difference for 5th between Outlaws and One was non-significant, meaning there is no evidence that the Warlight community sees them as significantly different in skill. Their ranking is fundamentally differently constructed from each other though. Outlaws has a wide range of at least 20% votes each from 4th to 7th, giving them the most variation of all clans while not getting a vote on at least every rank like One, Blitz and French.

ONE on the other hand gets 10% more votes on the contested 5th-6th place, but less 4th and 7th place votes. They do get a first place and one more second place vote than Outlaws, resulting in a wider range of predicted options nevertheless.

Blitz is the consensus last place pick, but not with a large majority. Almost 40% of the respondents (35 of 90) put them higher with about half of those (18 (20%)) putting them out of the relegation zone.

All in all, this was, not surprisingly, the division with the clearest predictions, with only 5th-6th undecided for our panel of voters.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.

Edited 2/13/2017 02:02:03
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/19/2017 02:31:53


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 63
Report
Update #3 - February 18th:

Blitz loses yet another game, this time against French on Guiroma. Not a very auspicious start by Blitz, but they still have time to turn things around. No other games have completed.

Current Standings:
Position     Clan                 Points     Max Points     Change In Position
1st          ONE!                 4          240            =
1st          French Community     4          240            ▲ 
2nd          Lynx                 0          240            =
2nd          MASTERs              0          240            =
2nd          Outlaws              0          240            =
2nd          Turtles              0          240            =
7th          Blitz                0          232            =


Edited 2/26/2017 01:09:36
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/19/2017 03:00:40


Onoma94
Level 61
Report
Two games finished? Seriously?
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/19/2017 03:29:37


TBest 
Level 60
Report
Div A should have lower boot time then all the other divisions :D
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/19/2017 04:12:42

Ollie 
Level 62
Report
Division B is currently kicking division A's ass though! Only 1 game finished xD
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 17:28:07


Kezzo
Level 61
Report
Tbest, div A should have autoboot on Masters! :D
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 17:49:55


master of desaster 
Level 66
Report
We almost are past the picking stage on both 2vs2 guiroma games already!
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 18:38:21


Mr. Nobody
Level 58
Report
"Two games finished? Seriously?"

People actually think about their moves before they make them :p
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 18:48:50


Semicedevine 
Level 60
Report
We almost are past the picking stage on both 2vs2 guiroma games already!

LOL

almost


Edited 2/20/2017 18:49:10
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 18:51:09


Platinum 
Level 62
Report
EU games are just starting now between Outlaws vs Lynx and ONE! So, It's not too slow Guiroma.

@AG In your main post , You forgot to change Blitz Max points to 232 (It's 236)
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 18:54:39


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 63
Report
Thanks, I changed it.
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 19:41:43


Cloud Strife
Level 61
Report
Man, AG sucks at updates, I wish we could have Tony Sodano on the job.
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 22:23:23

player12345
Level 61
Report
Great analysis from Mathwolf. The polling stats seem to match most early predictions. It's interesting to consider how much those predictions influenced the polling.
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 23:44:24


Master Turtle 
Level 62
Report
Is there supposed to be a separate thread for CL substitutions? Nox is being removed from 2v2 Guiroma, we are working on a replacement just want to know which forum I am supposed to put this information as per the rules in the CL9 doc.
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/20/2017 23:55:54


Min34 
Level 62
Report
Just make sure it reached MotD and Beren.

There is a substitution tab in the CL doc, so it will be visible to all there.
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/21/2017 00:36:37


Platinum 
Level 62
Report
https://www.warlight.net/Forum/173737-promotionrelegation-league-season-20?Offset=180

If what Kaerox said in this is true, Lynx will be making another substitution. Meaning Lynx will have made 3/6 substitutions they are allowed. Just for anyone interested in Sub Drama.

The more you know!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GD6qtc2_AQA
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/21/2017 00:44:07


Hades 
Level 64
Report
^#FakeNews
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/26/2017 01:41:51


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 63
Report
Update #4 - February 25th:

Blitz continues its losing streak, with their latest loss against MASTERs in 3v3 Europe. All of the completed games in Division A so far have been losses by Blitz to different clans. Meanwhile, MASTERs take the first 3v3 win in Division A to pass both French and ONE! in 1st. What luckers.

Current Standings:
Position     Clan                 Points     Max Points     Change In Position
1st          MASTERs              5          240            ▲
2nd          ONE!                 4          240            ▼
2nd          French Community     4          240            ▼
3rd          Lynx                 0          240            ▼
3rd          Outlaws              0          240            ▼
3rd          Turtles              0          240            ▼
7th          Blitz                0          227            =




Edited 2/27/2017 18:42:22
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/27/2017 18:36:24

Memele 
Level 60
Report
The starting dates for the last tournaments are in some place?
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 2/27/2017 18:41:38


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 63
Report
1v1s will start later. I haven't been given exact dates on when they will begin.

Edited 2/27/2017 18:47:36
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/5/2017 01:08:56


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 63
Report
Update #5 - March 4th:

Unfortunately, lots of games finished this week. Luckily, a few players are on vacation and holding up games, so a big thanks to those who are trying to keep Division A as slow as it usually is.

3v3 -
  • Europe:

    • Blitz loses another game to French, putting them at 0-2. French and MASTERs both have 1-0 from their wins vs. Blitz to take an early lead in the tournament, and are currently playing each other.


2v2:
  • Guiroma:

    • Lynx defeats Turtles. These two clans have been expected to finish 2nd and 3rd respectively (off of Math Wolf's data), so any games they win against each other will be crucial.

  • Final Earth:

    • Turtles defeats Lynx, negating their win in Guiroma, and putting the two clans neck and neck with each other again.
    • Blitz loses their fifth game overall, this loss coming courtesy of Outlaws. All clans are now officially on the scoreboard (Total Points (TP) and/or Max Points (MP) are no longer at the default score for any clan).
    • Blitz ...wins their first game! They beat French (the only clan to have beaten them twice so far), and with this win, all clans now also have a non-zero TP score. However, their previous five losses drag their points ceiling down to 18 points below the second lowest MP ceiling (236 for French, Lynx and Turtles). They will need a lot of wins in the coming weeks to offset this early hole.


Current Standings:
Position     Clan                 Points     Max Points     Change In Position
1st          MASTERs              5          240            =
2nd          ONE!                 4          240            =
2nd          Outlaws              4          240            ▲
4th          French Community     9          236            ▼▼
5th          Lynx                 4          236            ▼▼
5th          Turtles              4          236            ▼▼
7th          Blitz                4          218            =
Although French have the most points (TP) in the division, they are in 4th due to their Points Contested Percentage being lower than ranks 1-3.





Edited 3/5/2017 07:06:34
Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/8/2017 12:19:04


Onoma94
Level 61
Report
Blitz
  • Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/8/2017 12:27:10


    Kaerox
    Level 59
    Report
    Thanks ag, these updates are cool to read :)
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/12/2017 00:49:33


    AWESOMEGUY 
    Level 63
    Report
    Update #6 - March 11th:

    The scary trend of multiple games finishing in one week continues.

    3v3 -
    • Europe:

      • MASTERs pick up a win against Turtles, putting them at an early 2-0 lead. The only other undefeated team with a win is French (1-0), who are playing MASTERs currently.


    2v2:
    • Guiroma:

      • Lynx defeats Blitz, also increasing their total record to 2-0. Coincidentally enough, French once again is the other undefeated team with a positive record (1-0), though this win is not new.
      • Blitz wins against Turtles. A very interesting game, probably the most interesting one of the week, culminated in Blitz gaining a slight advantage late-game which was enough to win them the match. Blitz are now 1-2 in total, and with this loss, Turtles are now 0-2 in Guiroma. (Here is the link for those interested: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12855974)

    • Final Earth:

      • MASTERs beat Turtles to pick up their first win in FE. Oh gets eliminated in 5 turns!
      • Turtles beat French due to an autoloss from a player failing to join in time. This win raises the Turtles' record to a respectable 2-1.
      • French beat Outlaws to finally get a win in FE. They are now 1-2, whereas Outlaws break even with 1 win and 1 loss.


    Current Standings:
    Position     Clan                 Points     Max Points      Change In Position
    1st          MASTERs              14          240            =
    2nd          ONE!                 4           240            =
    3rd          Lynx                 8           236            ▲
    4th          French               13          232            =
    5th          Outlaws              4           236            ▼▼▼
    6th          Turtles              8           223            ▼
    7th          Blitz                8           214            =
    Masters (1) have a good week, with two wins (both coming from Turtles) to increase their Total Points (TP) by 9.

    ONE! (2) is still coasting in their 2nd place position due to their ONE! and only win in China almost a month ago. (Fun fact, this is still the only win on China, which has had no further games completed in the same month-long span).

    Lynx (3) boosts to third, whose points come entirely from Guiroma.

    French (4) remains in the same position they were last week by recieving one win and one loss in the past week (both completed games were from FE). They are only 1 point away from MASTERs' TP score, however they are 8 points away from MASTERs' Max Points (MP) ceiling.

    Outlaws (5) fall to 5th with their recent loss, otherwise they would still qualify for 2nd under the same conditions as ONE!.

    Turtles (6) suffer the worst this week, with 3 losses and only 1 win coming from an autoloss by the opposing team.

    Blitz (7) picks up a win, but that is far from enough to offset the hole they continue to sink into.

    Also noteworthy is the fact that this is the first week to have each individual clan occupy a different position.





    Edited 3/26/2017 00:45:42
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 00:53:37

    Ollie 
    Level 62
    Report
    Think there should be clear dates for when we can expect 'tourneys' to start. I just noticed masters removed Panagiotis from their clan and also from the 2vs2 china lineup. He is still in the lineup for a 1vs1 but i would assume they will replace him there as well, just didn't bother to do so yet because 1vs1 hasn't started yet. Maybe they want to see just before it starts who has most time to play.

    No problem with that but we replaced Mike weeks ago on strat 1vs1 because he would be busy until april and we didn't want to risk more boots. After we replaced him we heard there isn't a real date where the 1vs1 will start but most likely not sooner then april. If we knew that up front we would not have needed to replace mike just yet. We could have waited to see if he had enough time in april to play (also not to waste replacements since everybody is limited to 6 for the season).

    Don't get me wrong here, I am not accusing masters of cheating and I do appreciate all the hard work Motd and Beren have put into organizing the league but for transparency it would be better to set a date where each 'tourney' will start.
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 00:56:28


    Quicksilver 
    Level 61
    Report
    I think Ollie makes a very good point.

    Plus, I hear constant grumbling about the 1v1s not starting.

    Can the CL organizers set a date please for when the 1v1s start? Current thing is lame.
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 01:05:28


    TBest 
    Level 60
    Report
    Plus, I hear constant grumbling about the 1v1s not starting.

    Oh you mean like signing up for 1v1, since you had time at the beginning of the year, but now all the finals for everyone in school is coming up? Yeah, the 1v1 should have just been started, when CL started. I get the concept of having an intense showdown at the end, but no start date and ir being indefinitely postponed is a really bad user experience.

    Edited 3/18/2017 01:05:51
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 01:24:42


    Φιλώτας
    Level 62
    Report
    +1 ollie
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 02:11:27


    Deadman 
    Level 64
    Report
    We wanted to postpone 1v1s until 50-60% of the team games were complete(or Groups C,D begin). Obviously it's hard to put a date on that. If the uncertainty is a problem, we can start the first tournament on April 1 and a subsequent tournament every 3 days.
    Clan League 9: Division A Official Thread: 3/18/2017 03:06:20


    ZeroBlindDragon 
    Level 60
    Report
    I disagree with the idea that 1v1 games should be delayed until 50-60% of team games are completed. Otherwise, they won't start until May or June... A player who is available to play during the Winter may not be able to play during the Summer. I believe all the games should have started at the same time.

    There is no problem with the 1v1 games finishing months before the 2v2 and 3v3 games.
    Posts 10 - 39 of 380   <<Prev   1  2  3  ...  7  ...  12  13  Next >>