Predictions based on 90 respondents:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 mean sd
Masters 78.9 14.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.33 0.85
Lynx 13.3 56.7 15.6 7.8 3.3 3.3 0.0 2.41 1.13
Turtles 3.3 15.6 52.2 17.8 11.1 0.0 0.0 3.18 0.94
French 2.2 6.7 16.7 34.4 21.1 16.7 2.2 4.24 1.29
Outlaws 0.0 2.2 7.8 20.0 28.9 21.1 20.0 5.19 1.31
One 1.1 3.3 3.3 16.7 22.2 38.9 14.4 5.30 1.29
Blitz 2.2 1.1 1.1 3.3 13.3 17.8 61.1 6.22 1.30
Most respondents put Masters first (71, 78.9%) and their average ranking is 1.33. Additionally, only 6 out of 90 respondents put them lower than second, with the respondent that put them 7th basically reversing the general belief in his ranking.
Lynx is a convincing second as well, the only clan in any division to get more than 50 votes (51) on a single position that is not first or last. If they don't finish second, it could go either way, but with more people putting them 3rd or lower (27 (30%)) than first (12 (13.3%))
Turtles are predicted 3rd more than all other positions together as well. Just like Lynx, they are more likely to finish worst (28.9%) than better (18.9%) if the respondents have it correct, but the difference is smaller in their case. Everyone puts them at least 5th, meaning they are predicted to not relegate by every single respondent, something no other clan in A, nor B, can say.
French is a little more spread out, getting at least 2 votes on every position but nicely mirrored around the most chosen option and final rank 4th. As is usual by now, they also are slightly more often predicted to rank lower rather than higher than their most chosen rank.
Outlaws are ranked fifth here, but it's worth noting that the difference for 5th between Outlaws and One was non-significant, meaning there is no evidence that the Warlight community sees them as significantly different in skill. Their ranking is fundamentally differently constructed from each other though. Outlaws has a wide range of at least 20% votes each from 4th to 7th, giving them the most variation of all clans while not getting a vote on at least every rank like One, Blitz and French.
ONE on the other hand gets 10% more votes on the contested 5th-6th place, but less 4th and 7th place votes. They do get a first place and one more second place vote than Outlaws, resulting in a wider range of predicted options nevertheless.
Blitz is the consensus last place pick, but not with a large majority. Almost 40% of the respondents (35 of 90) put them higher with about half of those (18 (20%)) putting them out of the relegation zone.
All in all, this was, not surprisingly, the division with the clearest predictions, with only 5th-6th undecided for our panel of voters.
Please see
https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
Edited 2/13/2017 02:02:03
