Welcome to turn 7 of Rufus versus The World. For reference, this is how the board looked on picks and how the board looks right now:





As a recap, here's what happened last turn:

The World:
Deploy 17 to Venezuela

Rufus:
Deploy 4 to Cuba
Deploy 6 to Brazil
Deploy 2 to Colombia

The World:
3 armies failed to take Cuba from Venezuela

Rufus:
2 armies captured Bolivia from Brazil
0 armies transferred to Colombia from Brazil (Original order sent 23 armies, Mode: Attack Only)
7 armies captured Xinjiang from Tibet

The World:
Farah♦ plays an order delay card
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Tadschikistan
1 army transferred to Ufa from Moscow
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Turkmenistan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Ufa
1 army transferred to Tadschikistan from Kyrgyzstan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Kyrgyzstan
4 armies captured Tomsk from Eastern Kazakhstan
26 armies failed to take Brazil from Venezuela

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Today, we bring you four options to choose from. They are as follows:

Option 1: Smash Xinjiang

Play an order priority card
Deploy 17 to Tomsk
9 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
19 armies from Tomsk will attack/transfer Xinjiang
2 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will transfer to Kyrgyzstan
2 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will transfer to Tadschikistan
1 army from Tadschikistan will transfer to Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan

In every set where we don't want to fight in South America, we opt to flee to Cuba with an Order Priority card. We have to flee somewhere and we have two options; it's a prediction.
With that out of the way, we're aiming to take out Xinjiang. We're smashing from Tomsk for a reason: if our smash is effective, it means that Rufus does not deploy a lot to Xinjiang. If he does not deploy a lot to Xinjiang, his best move is probably to smash Tomsk to flank to another double border, while attempting to eliminate us in South America.

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Option 2: Give up Caucasus; fight in SA/CA

Deploy 15 to Venezuela
Deploy 2 to Tomsk
4 armies from Tomsk will attack/transfer Mongolia
1 army from Tadschikistan will attack/transfer Turkmenistan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Western Kazakhstan
5 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
5 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Colombia
14 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Brazil
Blockade Eastern Kazakhstan

This was suggested by Joi, so it's already a flawed option. Here we give up Caucasus and blockade it with 5 (resulting in a blockade of 18). Instead, we try to pressure Rufus in Central America and South America by assuming he does not deploy there, giving us great kill rates and more armies on the board. We'd also break Central America under the assumption of him not deploying there, meaning we're one income behind, but potentially some armies up.

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Option 3: Predict a single border in Caucasus

Play an order priority card
Deploy 2 to Kyrgyzstan
Deploy 15 to Tadschikistan
9 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
4 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will transfer to Tadschikistan
2 armies from Tomsk will transfer to Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan

With this option we predict Rufus to attack Tadschikistan. We defend our other border with 3 (or 5 after the transfer) to combat a small attack. If Rufus smashes Tadschikistan, we keep Caucasus for at least one more turn and we potentially break Central America as well. We'll also have a stack defending one of our borders in Caucasus already, if all succeeds.

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Option 4: Predict two borders in Caucasus

Play an order priority card
Deploy 8 to Kyrgyzstan
Deploy 9 to Tadschikistan
9 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
2 armies from Tomsk will transfer Kyrgyzstan
2 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will transfer Tadschikistan
2 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will transfer Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan

With this option we hope Rufus attacks both territories slightly soft. If he fails to break us, we have two territories with armies on them, and it will be a prediction battle.

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You may submit your vote by posting on this thread, or, if you'd rather vote anonymously, mail me.
Voting ends three days after this post.

If you want to see the board on picks, check out the game here: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869

To check the previous threads, refer to these links:
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/436073-rufus-vs-world-turn-1
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/437146-rufus-vs-world-turn-2
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/442264-rufus-versus-world-turn-4
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/447175-rufus-versus-world-turn-5
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/463579-rufus-versus-world-turn-6

Also, another poll to test the opinions of everyone:
https://www.strawpoll.me/21030692

im for option 2 obviously. it wont work but im all in for it

option 3 - don't panic

Edited 10/1/2020 14:34:20

would be funny if he were to not attack cauc and we break it ourself.

OK, let me also take a look. However that stack in Xinjiang is really ugly.

Option 2: Joi179 should feel ashamed for proposing that option. Blockading my own bonus is not how I roll. However leaving my pride behind, maybe that option makes sense.

Option 3: Being close to te gg, I feel like we have to make a guess now how Rufus will play his move and play accordingly. Option 3 looks like an option which pretends that we don't have to precisely guess Rufus' next move and can still win:
- If Rufus focuses on Russia, we don't need the order priority card for South America. However if we guess Rufus' border correctly, having an order priority card next turn could be great.
- If Rufus focuses on America, we would be way better off hiting Rufus in China.

Option 1: Hm, nothing fancy. However then again if I was Rufus and I wanted to focus on America, I would build multiple stacks and use my order delay card. Us just sitting there with Rufus showing up at our Caucasus border is an option Rufus can easily discard. Those moves can work however they also might not work.

Option 4: Well, it's a prediction.

The probem I see with options 1,3 and 4 is that if I was Rufus, my prefered play would be to take South America this turn while dodging in China. Us moving to Central America isn't a move which should be too hard for Rufus to predict.

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--> I like none of the options. If option 2 wouldn't include blockading our own bonus I would vote for that. Out of the given options I vote for option 1.

@normen, in my original post i did not propose to blocade cauc. that added farah. i would also be against it.

But why?
Both Farah and I agreed that this option only makes some sort of sense if we blockade Caucasus. The intention here is that we want to gain an advantage in SA/CA, but we need some time to make that advantage work. If Rufus can move straight to our next bonus, we will not have that time.

However then again if I was Rufus and I wanted to focus on America, I would build multiple stacks and use my order delay card.

Some of my general thoughts, not only targeting this particular quote: From Rufus point of view, the only way he can now realistically lose this game is if he allows both things to happen: He does not eliminate us in SA and he allows us to take back Xinjang.
He will build his moveset around this thought, and building multiple stacks is one of the options where theoretically both could happen for him. We could break through one of his stacks in SA/CA if we guess right and have the right numbers.
So I believe this would be a bad move for him.

This is also the reason why option 2 can't work without including the blockade card. In option 2 we NEED Rufus to full deploy in China and nothing in SA (because we want to make killrates in SA). Full deploying in China obviously involves attacking Caucasus. So I guess your hope without the blockade card was that Rufus might not attack Caucasus, but that's not gonna happen.

Edited 10/2/2020 07:57:26

@AI: If Rufus focuses on South America he has mainly 2 options. Either he builds multiple stack or he hits us strong with an order priority card. In both cases we have more armies than him there and have the advantage if we deploy strong there. Rufus and us focusing both in South America is an advantage for us, as long as we don't throw away Caucasus that is...

Basically how I understand you, is that you see no way of Rufus focusing in South America. If that chance was indeed 0, we could get a free break to Central America and would just have to guess the correct border where Rufus hits us and then Rufus has pretty much lost the game.

Edited 10/2/2020 09:26:49

What you say I agree with, but I don't understand the consequences of that.
Are you proposing a new option? If anything we learn from that, that playing with much deploy in SA is no valid option for him, no?

From his point of view : wipe in SA creates inevitability. But why would we ignore SA and allow that?
Or he can go for CAU hit, and even if we focus on SA and break CA, he'd have advantage. The only way he doesn't is if we predict CAU hit(s) correctly and with OD card he will still hold double border. This is a better option for him, especially with SA pressure.
Now those are both focused and last turn he's shown he's willing to split his income. Which I think might also be the option for him here: Some +6-8 to Cuba and the +8-10 Xinjiang, OP Brazil hit Venezuela, OD delays, hit Venezuela from Cuba and CAU.

I vote option 3, but I don't really like any of these options

Let us know what you like.
Maybe if we missed something, we can add another option

If I were rufus I know that defending Caracus is very difficult, so I would assume u wouldnt defend it and u would push Brazil. So I would full on defend brazil and attack caracus with 1 or to to be safe

@AI: Rufus has a lot of options what is the benefit of being in his position and especially the benefit of him having an order delay card and us not. In Rufus shoes I would at least seriously consider something like this:
- Deploy 4 to Colombia
- Deploy 12 to China
- Delay the moves without playing the order delay card
- Take South America
- Don't move in China.

However, Rufus has lots of moves and I don't see him in a position where he can play with a binary move choice. It's mainly that I see us dodging with an order priority card to Central America as a trap. If Rufus does decide to deploy heavily in America, he should build multiple stacks and if Rufus doesn't decide to deploy in America, not only is our order priority card wasted, but we gift Rufus South America for free. So yeah, I like option 2 minus us blockading our own bonus.

Edited 10/2/2020 13:41:28

I could see him using some spares in America to set something up but his main deploy will go to China. I have tried to make my view clear why I think this is the case and I have nothing to add. Maybe I'm wrong after all, we'll see.

Anyway, I'm voting for option 3, anything else is doomed to fail imo.

I could see him using some spares in America to set something up but his main deploy will go to China.

@AI: As I said, I agree of this being a likely moveset for Rufus, however deploying in China doesn't mean moving in China. Even if Rufus deploys all in China and doesn't go for any fancy play in America, he will have a 50% chance of guessing the wrong door. Without calculating it through, this looks like a (more or less) game over situation for Rufus.
--> Missing card piece
--> 17 vs 13 income
--> Us having enough armies on the board to block our double Caucasus border

All those 4 options assume that Rufus deploys full in China, throws a dice for the correct door and commits. If this was the objectively and for every skilled player determinable play for Rufus to play the game, the odds of him winning the game are pretty much down to 50%.

Edited 10/2/2020 14:13:33

No, Norman. Option 1 counters Rufus going for SA wipe.

What no option considers is if he doesn't overcommit in China but still goes for both SA wipe and CAU hit.

@Cloud Strife:

Here is option 1 played out against a moveset from Rufus which I find pretty likely: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=24127124

I forgot to give us the Scandinavia bonus so it looks a tiny bit worse than in reality. The main thing I'm trying to argue here isn't that I know how Rufus plays it but to let me phrase it again:

All those 4 options assume that Rufus deploys full in China, throws a dice for the correct door and commits. If this was the objectively and for every skilled player determinable play for Rufus to play the game, the odds of him winning the game are pretty much down to 50%.

In fact if I was in Rufus shoes I would seriously consider playing like I have in the custom scenario and none of our options work against that.

Edit: Rufus doesn't care about winning the game, all he cares about is not losing. The only way the moves from the custom scenario backfire is if we both take Central America and stay alive in South America. However if we manage this by overly deploying there, Rufus pretty much gets the Caucasus break for free next turn. Rufus also gets the Caucasus break for free if we defend one border in Caucasus and play our order priority card. There is lots of stuff that can go right for Rufus and little that can go wrong enough for him to lose the game.

Edited 10/2/2020 15:26:11

@Norman

Oh, I am not arguing how that would play out vs full Xinjiang deploy or, how that would play out at all, really. I don't like that option at all and don't see it working well against anything. What I am saying is that the Option 1 is what the team came up with as a response to Rufus prioritizing SA wipe and going for lateral move against CAU via Tomsk, according to what Farah said in the description :

In every set where we don't want to fight in South America, we opt to flee to Cuba with an Order Priority card. We have to flee somewhere and we have two options; it's a prediction.
With that out of the way, we're aiming to take out Xinjiang. We're smashing from Tomsk for a reason: if our smash is effective, it means that Rufus does not deploy a lot to Xinjiang. If he does not deploy a lot to Xinjiang, his best move is probably to smash Tomsk to flank to another double border, while attempting to eliminate us in South America.