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Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/27/2020 13:27:42


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Welcome to turn 6 of Rufus versus The World. For reference, this is how the board looked on picks and how the board looks right now:






As a recap, here's what happened last turn:

The World plays a reinforcement card for 5 armies
The World deploys 13 to Brazil
Rufus deploys 17 to Colombia
The World deploys 3 to Eastern Kazakhstan
The World deploys 3 to Western Kazakhstan
The World takes Venezuela with 14v3. The World loses 1 army
Rufus takes Brazil with 21v1 and loses 1 army
The transfers happen in the Russias
The world takes Caucasus; the 2v1 from Western Kazakhstan resulted in no armies killed for The World.
Furthermore, The World gets perfect leftovers when taking Kyrgyzstan and loses one taking Tadschikistan.



Today, we bring you four options.

Option 1: Norman's Berserk option: eliminate Rufus from SA:

Deploy 3 to Bolivia
Deploy 14 to Venezuela
Play an Order Delay Card
1 army from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Tadschikistan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Moscow will attack/transfer Ufa
1 army from Turkmenistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Tadschikistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Tadschikistan
1 army from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Turkmenistan
4 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
3 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Colombia
100% armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Brazil
3 armies from Bolivia will attack/transfer Brazil


As Norman showed with his custom scenario, we might be able to eliminate Rufus from South America while breaking Central America. We delay a lot, save the Order Delay card and basically hit everywhere whilst we use our armies in Caucasus to delay as much as possible.



Option 2: Predict the Brazil-blockade:

Deploy 17 to Venezuela
3 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
Play an order delay card
1 army from Tadschikistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Moscow will attack/transfer Ufa
1 army from Turkmenistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Tadschikistan
1 army from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
4 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Tomsk
26 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Brazil


As with the previous option, we delay and predict Rufus to blockade Brazil. Instead of trying to eliminate Rufus from South America, we just stack towards Brazil while trying to break Central America. We also take Tomsk to be able to protect it next turn.



Option 3: Break CA guaranteed:

Deploy 17 to Venezuela
1 army from Tadschikistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Moscow will attack/transfer Ufa
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Turkmenistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
4 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Tomsk
2 armies from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Tomsk
29 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba

This one is simple. We can break a bonus guaranteed, so we break it. We keep a large stack, combatting the potential stack hitting Venezuela from Brazil. If Rufus attacks with two stacks (one from Cuba and one from Brazil) this gives us an even better trade.



Option 4: Stack towards Xinjiang

Deploy 17 to Kyrgyzstan
6 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Cuba
6 armies from Venezuela will attack/transfer Colombia
4 armies from Eastern Kazakhstan will attack/transfer Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Tadschikistan will attack/transfer Kyrgyzstan
1 army from Turkmenistan will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Ufa will attack/transfer Eastern Kazakhstan
1 army from Moscow will attack/transfer Ufa
19 armies from Kyrgyzstan will attack/transfer Xinjiang


What happens if Rufus actually came from Tibet? Well, we better have Xinjiang then. We try to break Central America, attack Colombia to keep presence in South America and defend against an attack from Tibet.



You may submit your vote by posting on this thread, or, if you'd rather vote anonymously, mail me.
Voting ends three days after this post.

If you want to see the board on picks, check out the game here: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869

To check the previous threads, refer to these links:
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/436073-rufus-vs-world-turn-1
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/437146-rufus-vs-world-turn-2
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/442264-rufus-versus-world-turn-4
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/447175-rufus-versus-world-turn-5

Edited 9/30/2020 13:56:37
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/27/2020 14:51:45


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Also, let's see how the community thinks about the position on the board. I've created a strawpoll:
https://www.strawpoll.me/21009734
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/27/2020 15:44:00


Norman 
Level 58
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I haven't looked closely over the options in order to decide however just two cents:

- Since option 1 has my name in it: I wanted to actually play an order delay card. However then of course the potential benefit is bigger if we still succeed without having played the card...

- Both option 1 and option 2 follow the same thought process of Rufus doing some fancy play in South America like blockading Brazil. It might make sense to somehow aggregate those votes in case option 3 or 4 get slightly more votes.

Edited 9/27/2020 15:44:59
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/27/2020 15:58:27


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I agree with your second point; they're different plays from our side expecting the same play from Rufus. Anyone voting for one of those options expects Rufus to make that play. I think we can in this case safely assume that we can add the votes from 1 and 2 together and go with the more voted-on option. If anyone is against this or has a better idea, be sure to let me know.

For your first point; would you like me to add the delay card to the option?

Edited 9/27/2020 15:58:36
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/27/2020 17:09:07


Norman 
Level 58
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@Farah: I would prefer a delay card for option 1. However then I can understand why some guys might predict Rufus not playing a delay card himself, but I just don't feel like being greedy with the delay card is worth the risk. I haven't looked over option 1 in detail yet to see whether we are deploying enough armies in Venezuela in order to survive a potential first order hit. As for option 2 it seems pretty extreme to only poke Cuba with 2 armies. Rufus might still have his leftover army floating there.

My custom scenario was just to show the general idea. I hope option 1 involves enough armies

Edited 9/27/2020 17:15:26
- downvoted post by berdan131
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/28/2020 01:16:46

Player25253
Level 27
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This is only Turn 6... oh dear god. Can I see the link to the game?
Oh, and Rufus could see this forum chat and counterplay accordingly...
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/28/2020 08:22:00


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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The link to the game is in the first post of this thread. Also, Rufus doesn't check these threads.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 02:09:26

Player25253
Level 27
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Thank you, Farah. :)
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 11:28:24


Master Meldarion 
Level 62
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Why is there no option predicting Rufus to OD and grab SA bonus in one go rather than blockade?
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 11:31:36


AI 
Level 64
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Because it is not a good play on his side, huge risks for basically no benefit (we just break back in the next turn and he wasted more on neutrals than he gains from +4). Also, it is kinda covered by the prediction to blockade Brazil and option 4.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 11:37:15


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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I vote option 2
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 11:47:29


Norman 
Level 58
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Why is there no option predicting Rufus to OD and grab SA bonus in one go rather than blockade?

@MasterMeldarion:
Option 1 and to a lesser degree also option 2 covers that possibility.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 11:51:34


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I've added the OD card to option 1. It makes sense.
Also, I forgot about Rufus' potential leftover in CA. I adjusted option 2 to an attack on Cuba with 3 instead of 2.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 12:00:13


Master Meldarion 
Level 62
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As long as it's not option 3. I guess I'll vote option 2
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 12:35:33


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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with option 2 would it be better to hit cuba first move? vs the potential leftover?

increases our chances that we break cuba?
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 12:45:24


Norman 
Level 58
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There can also be 2 leftovers guys...
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 12:52:35


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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Tough one.
Option 1 doesn't get us Tomsk which is a major problem and worst case leaves us disadvantaged in SA vs CA. Best case though is a great position, putting considerable pressure on Rufus countering SA while on 13 next turn Upside in any scenario with this moveset is us either breaking Cuba OR having Colombia both of which will affect his Chinese stack vs Tomsk.
Option 2 worst case is hitting a wall in Brazil, unlikely as it is. The other bad, more realistic scenario is leaving us with smaller stack in Brazil not threatening any of his actual income at all. Bad that. But best case is Rufus on 13 and a very good position and some pressure on Rufus to prevent SA.
Option 3 worst case is being cut off from Africa entirely if he does blockade. Extremely bad that long term. Best case is Rufus being on 13 income 100% and that's real upside no other option has.
Option 4 is counter against something unlikely ( I think you guys are right about north path). Downside is losing footing in SA and an awkwardly positioned stack in China. Worst case is SA wipe which is unacceptable and best case is countering the stack and giving us momentum in Asia. Both can happen at the same time, weirdly. But again, this is playing against an unlikely moveset.


I am gonna vote for Option 1 here, upside is really good while betting on Rufus' most likely moveset ; berserk move is kind of a my style anyways; it uses OD which increases our chances of success and if it goes ok-ish we can still smash Tomsk next turn with OP whilst being ahead on income if we choose to do so instead of focusing on CA/SA cleanup. Option 2 is very close second pick for me.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 13:19:44


AI 
Level 64
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nice analysis by cloud strife!

I go with option 3 though, let him do his trickster thing, I prefer more armies, more income, more momentum for the following turns. I do see the potential benefits of the other options tho, and they could work just as well/better maybe.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 22:09:08


Joi179
Level 59
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i dont see why we would want to hard strike CA. he will either stack SA to defend africa and possibly expand in it or go all in for the counter attack in asia.

i could only see him defend with max 3 as anticipation of us not going full but thats it.

i personally like option 1 the most. its quiet daring, would secure us SA if he ends up countering asia / stops him from expanding into africa.

option 2 is safer but not as fun if it works as option 1.

i dislike option 3 a lot.

option 4 meh.

i take option 1.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/29/2020 23:05:11


Norman 
Level 58
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OK, let me look over the options so I can also cast my vote:

---
Option 4: We have calculated last turn that Rufus either is playing sneaky with his deployments or he is in fact coming from Inner Mongolia. Opton 4 isn't "that" bad if Rufus indeed comes from Mongolia since we can use the armies to attack China, however it's not so great in that case.

-------
Option 3:
I like that we are delaying our moves here. However as I see it, option 1 and 2 build upon option 3 and they are, with me simplifying stuff here, just plain better.
- If Rufus plays fancy, option 1 and 2 are better than option 3.
- If Rufus hits us strong instead, the way option 1 and 2 play out default to the same behavior as option 3 (in a simplified way).
--> If Rufus hits us strong first order with option 3, we perform a weak attack to Cuba.
--> If Rufus hits us strong with option 1, we also perform a weak attack to Cuba and our other orders don't get executed.

Also I disagree about Rufus sneaking South America being a non option. If Rufus sneaks South America we won't be able to break the bonus back and Rufus will win the game when he breaks us from China. Of course Rufus sneaking South America involves the majority is his stack moving to Venezuela.

-------
Option 2:
This is almost the same as option 1 however option 1 with the main difference of option 1 also taking Colombia. Since I like to view WarLight as a "game of pressure", for me taking Colombia is a huge deal. If we don't take Colombia then next turn we have to worry about the following aspects:
- Rufus moving from China
- Rufus taking West Africa
- Rufus taking back Central America
(- Rufus performing some fancy play in South America by throwing us out of the bonus)

However if we take Colombia then the pressure situation for me swings in a huge way:
- Rufus taking back Central America has less pressure since we also have the option to attack Central America from Colombia.
- Rufus has pressure of us sneaking South America or alternatively he has pressure of us getting into a situation where we could safely sneak South America.
(- Rufus has enhanced pressure of getting into a situation where he risks getting eliminated from Central America.)

So yeah, for me Colombia is a relatively huge deal, pretty much independent of how Rufus decides to play his turn.

-------
Option 1: The deployment in Bolivia might be a bit questionable, but for me this is also a part of the mentioned pressure swing of us threatening Rufus with South America.

Also I have to disagree about option 1 being more risky in case of Rufus hiting us full force. With option 2 we perform a small attack to Central America and our remaining stack will then crush into his bigger stack. With option 1 however we hit Central America stronger, then hit Colombia and there won't be any remaining stack which we crush into Rufus' bigger stack.
-------

--> I vote for option 1.

Edited 9/29/2020 23:23:09
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 12:16:25


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Interesting analyses, everyone. Voting ends soon, so if anyone wants to put in their vote, options one and two are close!
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 12:25:02


TBest 
Level 60
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I vote for option 1.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 12:27:10


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I vote option 2.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 12:51:09


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I forgot to mention I changed option 2 as per Quicksilver's suggestion, as it's strictly better. Voting ends in an hour and with the new votes it's even closer
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 13:01:14


Njord
Level 62
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2....

option 3 is too boring..... only a true german would pick that

Edited 9/30/2020 13:01:21
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 13:46:28


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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So the votes are tied between option one and option two. I will wait with committing until one of two things happen to break the tie:
1) Someone who hasn't voted for option 1 or 2 speaks out their preference
2) We get a new vote in

Whatever happens first.
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 13:50:56


AI 
Level 64
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Booh.
I will change to option 2 then, since I do not see any benefit in taking Colombia. To me it is not a game of pressure but a game of armies, and I don't want to spend armies on this territory. Also, I really would want to see Tomsk.

Edited 9/30/2020 13:51:12
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 14:21:59


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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The World voted for option 2!

Here's a screenshot of the board as it looks now:




The following happened:
The World:
Deploy 17 to Venezuela

Rufus:
Deploy 4 to Cuba
Deploy 6 to Brazil
Deploy 2 to Colombia

The World:
3 armies failed to take Cuba from Venezuela

Rufus:
2 armies captured Bolivia from Brazil
0 armies transferred to Colombia from Brazil (Original order sent 23 armies, Mode: Attack Only)
7 armies captured Xinjiang from Tibet

The World:
Farah♦ plays an order delay card
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Tadschikistan
1 army transferred to Ufa from Moscow
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Turkmenistan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Ufa
1 army transferred to Tadschikistan from Kyrgyzstan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Kyrgyzstan
4 armies captured Tomsk from Eastern Kazakhstan
26 armies failed to take Brazil from Venezuela
Rufus versus The World: Turn 6: 9/30/2020 14:39:41


AI 
Level 64
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I would have prefered to play option 3/4 and not to panick, but panicking moves are fun. Let's goo
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