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Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:42:39


Farah♦
Level 61
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Welcome to turn 4 of Rufus versus The World. The board looks as follows:



To recap, this is what happened last turn:

We took Norway with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Finland with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Brazil with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Georgia with a 6v2, getting perfect leftovers
We did not see Rufus in either South America or Middle East





We present you with three options today:

Option A

Deploy 12 to Brazil (SA)

Smash Colombia (SA) with a 13v2
transfer 4 from Georgia (Cauc) to Ufa (WR)
transfer 2 from Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)

This moveset seems like the default approach. We know Rufus is in Central America, so we move towards it with a stack and wait to see what happens elsewhere. Moving towards CA should be first order, because that way we might see what Rufus is doing with his leftovers in CA eventually, as well as denying him to take it himself and hiding the amount of leftover moves we did. (we would reveal that if we move there last order). We also assemble our armies in Ufa. Taking territorries with those armies would be a waste no matter where we go, so we just prepare for this exact case, while we are also able to take a free card piece with it next turn. Possibly this moveset will just run into Rufus having 16 armies by next turn though (with East China for example) and even breaking CA would still put us at a 12v13 disadvantage.




Option B

Deploy 12 to Brazil (SA)

Transfer Georgia (Cauc) to Ufa( WR)
Transfer Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)
Take Argentina (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)
Take Venezuela (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)
Take Colombia (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)

Here we are going all in with our expansion, just hoping that Rufus will not expect us to be greedy enough to even try for it. It would be the obvious plan for us to stack towards CA, going for the bonus is not obvious. Therefore it could turn out that we are lucky and it works, especially if Rufus is in Caucasus, for example and stacking towards us this turn. Therefore we also assemble our armies in Ufa. Taking territories with those armies would be a waste no matter where we go, so we just prepare for this exact case, while we are also able to take a free card piece with it next turn. Questionable is, whether the return if we actually succeed is really that great. We threaten CA, but also risk to lose SA immediately while Rufus spent his armies elsewhere



Option C

Deploy 12 to Ufa (WR)

Take Eastern Kazakhstan (Cauc) with 12 from Ufa (WR)
Transfer 2 from Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)
Take Western Kazakhstan (Cauc) with 4 from Georgia (Cauc)

This option serves multiple purposes. If we predict Rufus to be in Caucasus and move towards us, we could try to interrupt his attempt, while at the same time denying him a card piece eventually. If he is not in Cauc, then we will just use those armies next turn to complete Caucasus. Taking Western Kazakhstan serves the purpose of taking a card piece ourselves if Rufus moves before us. At the same time we try go get him nervous in SA and eventually let him counter into the blue there. Downside is, that we still do not threaten him in CA.



You may submit your vote by posting on this thread, or, if you'd rather vote anonymously, mail me.
Voting ends three days after this post.

If you want to see the board on picks, check out the game here: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869

To check the previous threads, refer to these links:
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/436073-rufus-vs-world-turn-1
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/437146-rufus-vs-world-turn-2
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:44:43

Bobby
Level 60
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What is Rufus vs the world?
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:53:39


l4v.r0v 
Level 59
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@Bobby: https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks

Voting for A, tentatively

B & C both feel suicidal to me.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 21:05:37


Corn Man 
Level 61
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C, since we are in an awkward spot.

either get nice bonus (and then assume East China) or we block a late counter

Edited 8/10/2020 21:05:48
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 21:29:14


Phobos 
Level 62
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Option C,

East Russia kills us period so I won't worry about it. I think late Caucasus is unlikely but this is a decent play against it. This is also the best play against East China, which I think is the most likely "other" Rufus pick.

Taking South America is foolhardy. Unless he's just stacking towards us from Caucasus. Rufus will attack South America this turn, and he will do it with enough to handle a 4 attack.

Stacking in South America is ok, but we run the risk of getting outexpanded, especially against East China.

Edited 8/10/2020 21:29:49
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 23:27:13


ktyne
Level 34
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Caucasus seems like a brittle bonus to go for since Rufus is likely in East Africa and could very well greet us in Iran right as we finish that bonus.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 08:50:30


Corn Man 
Level 61
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he's not that close I don't think, not yet - do the math on it
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 11:21:54


Nature
Level 61
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C
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 13:15:31


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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@knyte: This is somewhat ignoring that Rufus has a 3rd pick. If that is indeed his gameplan he will execute it later, he cannot be that fast in Iran.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 13:27:35


Farah♦
Level 61
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I'm voting for C as well. It looks as if the World is pretty much saying C is the way. If this remains the same, I might end the voting a day early to get on with the event.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 14:32:53


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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C of course.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 15:23:51


The Voynich Manuscript
Level 56
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C
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 16:36:51

Norman 
Level 58
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C also for me.

Denying the card piece seems pretty far fetched however we need income.

A looks like us losing by default and B hopes for a certain play from Rufus which I don't see happening. Playing like B is necessary when we are facing immediate defeat. As for B I would have probably preferred hiting 1 spot with 6 and the others with 3.

Edited 8/11/2020 16:38:19
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 08:52:20


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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IMO C is undebatable here. It is the only option that is playing for a win.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 08:57:08


Farah♦
Level 61
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With everyone but one person voting for C, we committed this option. Here's what happened:




The World took Eastern Kazakhstan with 12 and lost 1 army.
The World transferred 2 from Moscow to Ufa
The World transferred 1 from Finland to Moscow
The World transferred 1 from Sweden to Finland
The World took Western Kazakhstan with 4 and lost 2 armies.
We see Rufus show up with a 6v2 in Colombia from Panama. He lost 1 army.

Expect a new thread soon!

Edited 8/13/2020 08:57:31
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 09:04:04


Farah♦
Level 61
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We would like to give The World the option to contribute to deducing Rufus' picks and play so far. What option allows him to capture with 6? What bonuses do we think Rufus has?

To help: this is the distribution:



Edited 8/13/2020 09:13:15
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:14:09

Norman 
Level 58
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https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3?Offset=30

A 6v2 attack is something which I have "calculated" for East Africa and China. That's why I was thinking about the option of hitting one spot in South America also with 6. I'm more happy with C however you should be open minded to crazy play, when you feel the situation is dire, @AI.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:18:34


Farah♦
Level 61
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Ah yes, I see. So the first explanation for Rufus' move is:

Looking over the board I'd also like to assume East China however I'm not certain. East China + East Africa is pretty bad for us:
- Turn 2 Rufus took East Africa
- Turn 3 Rufus took Central America
- Turn 4 Rufus will now take East China. This leaves him with another let's say 5 armies or so which he can deploy elsewhere. Even if Rufus doesn't have any intel from picks I see very little reason for him now not to hit South America with, let's say 6 armies.


By Norman.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:51:09


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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Yep. CA + EA + EC. Not great, not terrible.

Edited 8/13/2020 10:51:26
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 11:05:55


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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Alright, very sensible. We will surely come up with orders considering this. Any more pick theories we should consider?

@Norman: I am familiar with the concept of taking risks in bad situations
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