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Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:42:39


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Welcome to turn 4 of Rufus versus The World. The board looks as follows:



To recap, this is what happened last turn:

We took Norway with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Finland with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Brazil with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Georgia with a 6v2, getting perfect leftovers
We did not see Rufus in either South America or Middle East





We present you with three options today:

Option A

Deploy 12 to Brazil (SA)

Smash Colombia (SA) with a 13v2
transfer 4 from Georgia (Cauc) to Ufa (WR)
transfer 2 from Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)

This moveset seems like the default approach. We know Rufus is in Central America, so we move towards it with a stack and wait to see what happens elsewhere. Moving towards CA should be first order, because that way we might see what Rufus is doing with his leftovers in CA eventually, as well as denying him to take it himself and hiding the amount of leftover moves we did. (we would reveal that if we move there last order). We also assemble our armies in Ufa. Taking territorries with those armies would be a waste no matter where we go, so we just prepare for this exact case, while we are also able to take a free card piece with it next turn. Possibly this moveset will just run into Rufus having 16 armies by next turn though (with East China for example) and even breaking CA would still put us at a 12v13 disadvantage.




Option B

Deploy 12 to Brazil (SA)

Transfer Georgia (Cauc) to Ufa( WR)
Transfer Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)
Take Argentina (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)
Take Venezuela (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)
Take Colombia (SA) with 4 from Brazil (SA)

Here we are going all in with our expansion, just hoping that Rufus will not expect us to be greedy enough to even try for it. It would be the obvious plan for us to stack towards CA, going for the bonus is not obvious. Therefore it could turn out that we are lucky and it works, especially if Rufus is in Caucasus, for example and stacking towards us this turn. Therefore we also assemble our armies in Ufa. Taking territories with those armies would be a waste no matter where we go, so we just prepare for this exact case, while we are also able to take a free card piece with it next turn. Questionable is, whether the return if we actually succeed is really that great. We threaten CA, but also risk to lose SA immediately while Rufus spent his armies elsewhere



Option C

Deploy 12 to Ufa (WR)

Take Eastern Kazakhstan (Cauc) with 12 from Ufa (WR)
Transfer 2 from Moscow (WR) to Ufa (WR)
Transfer 1 from Finland (Scan) to Moscow (WR)
Transfer 1 from Sweden (Scan) to Finland (Scan)
Take Western Kazakhstan (Cauc) with 4 from Georgia (Cauc)

This option serves multiple purposes. If we predict Rufus to be in Caucasus and move towards us, we could try to interrupt his attempt, while at the same time denying him a card piece eventually. If he is not in Cauc, then we will just use those armies next turn to complete Caucasus. Taking Western Kazakhstan serves the purpose of taking a card piece ourselves if Rufus moves before us. At the same time we try go get him nervous in SA and eventually let him counter into the blue there. Downside is, that we still do not threaten him in CA.



You may submit your vote by posting on this thread, or, if you'd rather vote anonymously, mail me.
Voting ends three days after this post.

If you want to see the board on picks, check out the game here: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869

To check the previous threads, refer to these links:
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/436073-rufus-vs-world-turn-1
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/437146-rufus-vs-world-turn-2
https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:44:43

Bobby 
Level 57
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What is Rufus vs the world?
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 20:53:39


knyte 
Level 58
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@Bobby: https://www.warzone.com/Forum/433434-rufus-vs-world-picks

Voting for A, tentatively

B & C both feel suicidal to me.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 21:05:37


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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C, since we are in an awkward spot.

either get nice bonus (and then assume East China) or we block a late counter

Edited 8/10/2020 21:05:48
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 21:29:14


Phobos 
Level 62
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Option C,

East Russia kills us period so I won't worry about it. I think late Caucasus is unlikely but this is a decent play against it. This is also the best play against East China, which I think is the most likely "other" Rufus pick.

Taking South America is foolhardy. Unless he's just stacking towards us from Caucasus. Rufus will attack South America this turn, and he will do it with enough to handle a 4 attack.

Stacking in South America is ok, but we run the risk of getting outexpanded, especially against East China.

Edited 8/10/2020 21:29:49
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/10/2020 23:27:13


ktyne
Level 33
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Caucasus seems like a brittle bonus to go for since Rufus is likely in East Africa and could very well greet us in Iran right as we finish that bonus.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 08:50:30


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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he's not that close I don't think, not yet - do the math on it
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 11:21:54


Soldier of Orange
Level 60
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C
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 13:15:31


AI 
Level 64
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@knyte: This is somewhat ignoring that Rufus has a 3rd pick. If that is indeed his gameplan he will execute it later, he cannot be that fast in Iran.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 13:27:35


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I'm voting for C as well. It looks as if the World is pretty much saying C is the way. If this remains the same, I might end the voting a day early to get on with the event.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 14:32:53


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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C of course.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 15:23:51


OvertForeigner 
Level 55
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C
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/11/2020 16:36:51


Norman 
Level 58
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C also for me.

Denying the card piece seems pretty far fetched however we need income.

A looks like us losing by default and B hopes for a certain play from Rufus which I don't see happening. Playing like B is necessary when we are facing immediate defeat. As for B I would have probably preferred hiting 1 spot with 6 and the others with 3.

Edited 8/11/2020 16:38:19
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 08:52:20


AI 
Level 64
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IMO C is undebatable here. It is the only option that is playing for a win.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 08:57:08


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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With everyone but one person voting for C, we committed this option. Here's what happened:




The World took Eastern Kazakhstan with 12 and lost 1 army.
The World transferred 2 from Moscow to Ufa
The World transferred 1 from Finland to Moscow
The World transferred 1 from Sweden to Finland
The World took Western Kazakhstan with 4 and lost 2 armies.
We see Rufus show up with a 6v2 in Colombia from Panama. He lost 1 army.

Expect a new thread soon!

Edited 8/13/2020 08:57:31
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 09:04:04


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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We would like to give The World the option to contribute to deducing Rufus' picks and play so far. What option allows him to capture with 6? What bonuses do we think Rufus has?

To help: this is the distribution:



Edited 8/13/2020 09:13:15
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:14:09


Norman 
Level 58
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https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3?Offset=30

A 6v2 attack is something which I have "calculated" for East Africa and China. That's why I was thinking about the option of hitting one spot in South America also with 6. I'm more happy with C however you should be open minded to crazy play, when you feel the situation is dire, @AI.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:18:34


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Ah yes, I see. So the first explanation for Rufus' move is:

Looking over the board I'd also like to assume East China however I'm not certain. East China + East Africa is pretty bad for us:
- Turn 2 Rufus took East Africa
- Turn 3 Rufus took Central America
- Turn 4 Rufus will now take East China. This leaves him with another let's say 5 armies or so which he can deploy elsewhere. Even if Rufus doesn't have any intel from picks I see very little reason for him now not to hit South America with, let's say 6 armies.


By Norman.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 10:51:09


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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Yep. CA + EA + EC. Not great, not terrible.

Edited 8/13/2020 10:51:26
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 11:05:55


AI 
Level 64
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Alright, very sensible. We will surely come up with orders considering this. Any more pick theories we should consider?

@Norman: I am familiar with the concept of taking risks in bad situations
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 17:02:48


Phobos 
Level 62
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Central + East Africa + East China seems the most likely. But I don't think it's an ironclad guarantee. For example if I assume East Russia:

Turn 1: Set up East Africa
Turn 2: Set up Central, take East Africa, take one territory in East Russia
Turn 3: Take Central America take triple border with Central Russia
Turn 4: Set Up East Russia, Counter South America

Edited 8/13/2020 17:03:01
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 17:34:18


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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I bet he's in Malaysia just to flex
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 17:41:32


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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phobos the problem with the east russia idea is that you don't want to fight while in the middle of taking your bonus - since you either have to pause taking the bonus or risk losing the first engagement

so, that decreases the probability of east russia imo

---

also, I would a decent probability on rufus smashing brazil with a bigish army first move - since he knows we are a bonus behind.

Edited 8/13/2020 17:43:22
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 17:58:10


Phobos 
Level 62
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@Quick

I think Rufus is East Africa + East China. I'm merely trying to think of alternatives so we don't get caught in a myopic view of the board that *may* not be correct.

I agree Rufus hitting Brazil big seems likely.
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 18:11:51


Norman 
Level 58
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Picking East Russia never was a thing back in the days. Also our own play not to contest Central America is something which Rufus couldn't have foreseen.

IMO the good thing is now that in the past Rufus had the intel advantage while now we know exactly where Rufus is. I'm certain that Rufus will expand into West China now while trying to slap us around in South America.

The question for me is how Rufus will take West China. He has 16 income.
- If Rufus deploys 12 against us, we can't tell whether Rufus is expanding through Inner Mongolia or through Tibet.
- If Rufus deploys 13 against us then this is a clear sign that it's Tibet. In this case we will have to hit Xinjiang relatively strong.
- If Rufus deploys less against us, he will try to take West China immediately the turn after.

By default I'd strongly advice expecting an expansion through Inner Mongolia and not through Tibet. Us playing razor sharp in China + us not getting destroyed in South America is our victory condition.

Edited 8/13/2020 18:14:09
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 18:20:05


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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er ... taking west china? maybe? probably not tho?

like, what intel does rufus likely to have on scan/west russia if he's in east china? good chance his only intel is south america. in which case rufus has to think that maybe we have, or will have, central russia - so he's going to either move up from east africa to georgia and/or move up from east china (which he has two routes possible)

--

also, unless rufus wants to hide his income he might just smash us full, given his income advantage - getting brazil secures west africa as expansion

Edited 8/13/2020 18:22:33
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/13/2020 18:42:01


Norman 
Level 58
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@Quicksilver: I mean that Rufus will now move to Central Russia through West China. He has 2 possible paths and the more obvious one is through the top.

like, what intel does rufus likely to have on scan/west russia if he's in east china?
Here is what Rufus knows / doesn't know:
- Rufus probably has direct intel on the Scandinavian Peninsula. The reason is that East China only works with a +3 bonus and he couldn't have build his strategy around him luckily getting Central America.
- Then Rufus guessing West Russia shouldn't be a hard guess.
- Rufus knows that we are taking a third bonus there which can either be Central Russia or Caucasus. Caucasus might surprise him.


However I believe you are right that Rufus shouldn't take West China. If Rufus shows up in Mongolia and he doesn't see us in Central Russia he shouldn't take West China because he then has to know that it was Caucasus. Even if you disagreed with me about the intel of Rufus it gets very easy for him then. There are 4 bonuses (Scandinavia, West Russia, Central Russia, Caucasus) there, he knows that we picked 2 of those bonuses and that we expanded into the third. If he doesn't see us in Central Russia, he knows all our 3 bonuses there.

Edited 8/13/2020 18:43:34
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/25/2020 04:33:44

JaiSh123
Level 58
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Hello guys,
I was really enjoying this match up, but what happened? Is it not continuing?
It's been over two weeks since the last update. I really hope this continues and we get to enjoy this classic game. :-)
Good luck to The World!
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/25/2020 09:44:56


Farah♦ 
Level 61
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Vacation happened. The event will continue. A new thread should be up today or tomorrow; sorry for the delay :)
Rufus versus The World - Turn 4: 8/30/2020 12:17:57


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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Stop trying to con decent and honest landlord folk out of their hard earned money and focus on your duties as a puppet of the hive!
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