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Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 15:50:23


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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Hello all,

We are organizing another event where the world plays one of the world's best players. With the trophy of the 1v1 ladder, the seasonal ladder and the Multi-Template Ladder, Rufus has proven to be one of the best 1v1 players to have ever existed within our community.

The World will be playing Rufus on the old (but not oldest) ladder template: Strategic Medium Earth. Keep in mind that this template features the Weighted Random rounding mode.

Threads will be created for every turn, where The World can vote on multiple sets of moves which a panel will be putting out.

For now, we've reached the picking stage. The board looks as follows:





You can check out the game here: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869

Edited 7/5/2020 15:58:31
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 15:50:30


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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The panel has come up with the following picking strategies:


Option A
The idea of the pickset is the underlying evaluation that the Central America + South America combo is the safest and best on the board. There really is no way to prevent South America in 2 turns if you get the combo all for yourself. Central America is the 1st pick because it directly borders South America and in case that you split the two picks, it is much better because South America has to eat its way through neutrals to prevent Central America from being taken. In fact, Central America is actually a safe bonus in 2 turns and South America can't do anything against it. It is picked as 1 and 3 because in any case you always get either the 1st or 3rd pick. The 2nd pick in Western Russia is just a very good bonus. It keeps an eye on all other Russian bonuses and creates a synergy with Scandinavia. However, in case Scandinavia gets lost, it can also counter it. The 5th pick is to hopefully combo with Western Russia and create a nice Central Russia in 2 turns. However it is a bit risky; imagine ending up with Central Russia and Scandinavia aganinst Western Russia. The 6th pick is just a safe bonus in 2 turns, if you look closely you may realize that it feels like an advantage for us here in any possible pick combo outcome (1/2/6, 1/3/6 and 2/3/6)





Option B
This strategy is obviously about the triple pick in Central Russia. So let's see, does the triple pick work if we end up with it? It is very likely that Rufus in this case has his picks in Central America, South America and probably in Scandinavia. We can take the triple in turn 1 (note: this is not guaranteed, due to luck. The chance is only 64%). Rufus is likely taking South America on turn 2 and starting to take either Central America or Scandinavia in turn 3. Our goal is to prevent Scandinavia from entering Russia with a stack (this would kill us). So, we have to move strong towards Scandinavia turn 2 and counter it strong on turn 3. Then we secure Norway and probably win. However, if Rufus anticipates the triple and plays accordingly, it will be hard. Additionally, it is possible to lose 1 pick of the triple or to have Rufus in Caucasus, so it is a risky strategy.




Option C
As with option A, the idea of the pickset is the underlying evaluation that the Central America + South America combo is the safest and best on the board. There really is no way to prevent South America in 2 turns if you get the combo all for yourself. Central America is the 1st pick because it directly borders South America and in case that you split the two picks, it is much better because South America has to eat its way through neutrals to prevent Central America from being taken. In fact, Central America is actually a safe bonus in 2 turns and South America can't do anything against it. The 3rd pick in East China is on the one hand a slow bonus, but if you look closely this probably doesn't matter. In the case that we get the 12-combo, we just take the combo in 2 turns and prepare East China to take it on turn 3. If we lose one of our early combo picks, we also have the brawl in Russia, so ending up with a bonus that is slow doesn't matter, since the direct fight matters more anyway. Additionally, if we get the 1/2/3 we can long-term move with a stack towards Russia from East China and break bones and bonuses. The 4/5/6 is obviously to either get a one-on-one confrontation in Russia so the picks cancel each other out, or to get the 4/5 combo and take Central Russia in 2 turns. the 6th pick shall prevent exactly this in case we lose both of those picks







Option D
This strategy is supposed to be the counter strategy to the Central America +South America combo. We are trying to get picks 1, 2 and 3 here, take one of the 4-bonuses (likely East Africa) on turn 2 and long-term move a stack into Central America and then down towards South America. Picks 1 and 4 are there to secure the presence in Russia, while our 5th pick has about the same purpose as in the previous set with the 6 being a counter to it and at the same time to Russia in case we get picks 2/3/6.



Credits to AI for coming up with these varied strategies and the explanation behind them!


You may vote by posting on this thread, or, if you'd like to vote privately, you may mail me. Voting will end exactly three days after this post.

Good luck and have fun!

Edited 7/5/2020 15:59:33
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 16:03:04

{N.W.} Hi
Level 59
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A
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 16:11:49


Quicksilver 
Level 60
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D

Edited 7/5/2020 16:23:09
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 16:56:03


master of desaster 
Level 65
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I don't like SA that much. Personally i'd go for an approach 1 CA 2 east africa 3 scandinavia 4 west russia 5 central russia 6 west china.

Getting SA without CA sucks a lot. Some safe but rather slow income in EA, scandinavia which is good as bonus and counter for russias as well

Edit: out of these options i will go with A

Edited 7/5/2020 16:59:25
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 17:01:58


AI 
Level 64
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That is true mod, however it felt to me like losing CA and SA both is even worse without any reasonable plan against it. and there is none except maybe option D? Maybe I'm wrong.

Edited 7/5/2020 17:06:24
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 17:22:27


master of desaster 
Level 65
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East africa should work as longterm counter? We'll see how this goes, looking forward to this

Edited 7/6/2020 08:01:24
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 17:50:46


Leia - Coinwheel Princess
Level 54
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C
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 18:24:13

DrApe 
Level 61
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I'd go with D, but I think CA as 3 with West US as 4 is just strictly better.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 19:04:37


Norman 
Level 58
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Hm, I see a releatively common theme here with getting a disadvantage after picks:

- Having South America + opponent in Central America. If Rufus isn't picking something fancy he will also choose Central America first and thus giving us a 50% chance of quite a huge disadvantage after picks.

- Having West Russia + opponent (might or might not) being in Scandinavian Peninsula. With West Russia we seem to put a lot of pressure on ourself in order to play correctly against Scandinavian Peninsula.

Anyhow, I pick A. A is the Szeweningen style of picks which seems OK with me. The other picks seem kinda crazy. What I would love to have in the pool is some play with Africa. I'm thinking about Scandinavian Peninsula + East Africa + West Africa.

Edited 7/5/2020 19:07:11
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 21:50:26


DarkKing121
Level 56
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Probably A, though C isn't bad either.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/5/2020 21:57:23


Phobos
Level 61
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Credit to the pick sets that only B has me having a violent reaction against it. Too many picks ruin the triples life.

I really do like pick set D, but not against Rufus lol. Too many alternatives he can pick to make the counter not very good.

This leaves A vs C and I went back in forth between these two a bit. I like A slightly better.

My vote: Option A
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 05:57:19


hexe1309 
Level 65
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Option B&C are jokes, right?

B is too vulnerable to meme around.

Look at a possible 2+3+4 on option C...
Do you really want to risk that your only 2-turn bonus options are highly contested?

Option D has flaws like 1+4+5 in it.

A ist the least of the evils, although having SA without CA sucks.

Can I vote for Option M(od)?
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 07:29:52


Buns157 
Level 68
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A
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 09:04:42


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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A is bad if you lose CA, 136 is not advantageous at all. Nor is 236.
B is shit I'd play on some rt autogames, and definitely against Xeno. Or Rufus if we're clowning but it doesn't seem like that's the idea.
C you don't even have advantage unless literal best case and vs Rufus it's not happening, first bonus likely turn 3 in most scenarios. Remove SA and take something safe and you're better off.
D is interesting because of the counter. I don't see the rest working out, especially if you lose EA.

imho ca ea sca wr cr wc picks

I'd vote modified C, but if it's only unmodified choices - B, might as well lose in style.

Edited 7/6/2020 09:06:25
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 09:50:09


Soldier of Orange
Level 60
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A
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 15:22:08


Buns157 
Level 68
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@cloud strife

Can’t get 136 on picks.

236 with A may turn out sad, but CA is always going to beat SA.

If we pick C and got 2 3 6 it also sucks, but not as bad as A imo.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 18:28:45


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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Voting ends in two days!

To anyone suggesting different picksets, I'm sorry I can't include them anymore. Keep in mind though that this is The World versus Rufus, so a vote from a serious 1v1 player counts as much as the next guy playing SE 1v1 all day. As much as I'd love to add the picksets MoD and others suggested, voting has already commenced. I do like them though :)
If you want your moves represented in the future, feel free to mail me for an invite to the discord server where we discuss.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 19:58:28


psykkoman
Level 60
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I would vote for what MoD suggested, too. Getting SA without CA basically throws a bonus away. If you lose safe 2 turn bonus, you need another safe 2 turn bonus as compensation, and only Mod's picks fulfill that requirement reliably.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 19:59:17


Norman 
Level 58
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@Farah: Imo it's fine, I find it interesting to hear reservations against certain picks. As for the actual game it should be more obvious what the sound options are.

Edited 7/6/2020 20:00:20
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 20:11:23


Min34 
Level 61
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Out of these I'd go with A
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 21:16:03


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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@Buns - in theory I think you can which is why Farah (or is it AI?) says this about A-set :

The 6th pick is just a safe bonus in 2 turns, if you look closely you may realize that it feels like an advantage for us here in any possible pick combo outcome (1/2/6, 1/3/6 and 2/3/6)

So it was a comment on that. In reality, I agree - no way you will get 136. But even in theory, only 126 looks like advantageous position out of these three mentioned outcomes.

And I also agree that 236C > 236A.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 21:36:49


berdan131
Level 58
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It's gonna be easy for rufus knowing his opponent exact picks xD most people say option A...
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 21:51:38


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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Rufus is not checking these threads, so no worries about that.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/6/2020 22:37:38


Norman 
Level 58
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Yeah, 1+3+6 is possible. However 1+3+6 generally looks like a bizarre outcome to me. I generally think of the outcomes as the following:

- 1/2/6 --> You checked with your picks 3+4+5 your opponents picks and now slam him with your number 6.

- 2/3/6 --> You picked the board quite similarly than your opponent.

- 1/3/6 --> Technically just like 2/3/6 just that your opponent picked your pick number 2 as hist first pick. However practically you seem to have evaluated the board completely different than your opponent and it's just a big coincidence that you got to pick 6. But perhaps then again 1/3/6 is also just like 1+2+6 if you form a combo with your 1+3 instead of the more classic 1+2.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/7/2020 00:27:01


knyte 
Level 58
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Under ABBAAB, 1/3/6 is possible for B if (and only if) A's 1st pick is B's 2nd pick and A picks B's 2/4/5 in A's first 3 successful picks. I don't think you need a completely different evaluation of the board; you can arrive at 1/3/6 where A & B disagree on just 1 vs. 2. That could be a pretty huge disagreement or possibly just tricky play when 1&2 are the same combo (could be a mutual combo where both warlords are borders).

e.g., where A1...A6 = A's picks, and likewise for B1...B6:

A1 is B2
A2 is B1
A3 is B3
A4 is B4
A5 is B5
A6 is B6

1. A gets A1 (B can't get B2)
2. B gets B1 because B2 is taken (A can't get A2)
3. B gets B3 (A can't get A3)
4. A gets A4 because A2, A3 are taken (B can't get B4)
5. A gets A5 (B can't get B5)
6. B gets B6 because B4, B5 are taken

(note that 1/3/6 just implies that you're B, that B2 = A1, that B4 is in {A2, A3, A4}, and that B5 is in {A3, A4, A5}; the above is just one scenario where the pick similarity is maximized).

Edited 7/7/2020 00:36:02
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/7/2020 03:36:24


Benjamin628 
Level 60
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+1 MoD/Timi

Option A is the best, even if some of the second pick options don't look so good.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/8/2020 14:49:29


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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The picks have been made!
Out of the four options, The World overwhelmingly took option A as the best one. We ended up getting second pick; we have Western Russia, South America and Scandinavia. We know for sure that Rufus is in Central America and not in Central Russia.

The board looks as follows:



Expect a thread on the first movesets for this turn tomorrow.

Good luck and have fun.
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/8/2020 14:50:30


master of desaster 
Level 65
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Lol
Rufus vs The World: picks: 7/8/2020 14:52:39

yeeeeeeeeeehoooooo
Level 12
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things
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