I didn't vote. Reza did. I was out of town.

Comprehensive Update V:

Hmm... my creative train is not working...

Summons Creativity

Well, the summon creativity enchant didn't work either.

RIP Me

I said I wouldn't do an update so late again. But here I am... after forgetting to do the update. Oops. I guess I can't keep myself to my own word... hence I've got nothing fancy to start off this opening except thinking about how tired I am... again. Well, Ill cut to the chase... I apologize if this one isn't as fancy as you want it to be.

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

TJC 			44
Sninja			43
WG			42
Statisticians		35
Hydra			25
FCC			3

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			197
WG			175
TJC			174
Statisticians		167
Hydra			160
FCC			135

Completed Games: (Bold detonates winner):

1v1: Guiroma

WG vs FCC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15662522 (5/22)
Hydra vs TJC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15662521 (5/23)


1v1: French Brawl

Statisticians vs FCC		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15642524 (5/23)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

Statisticans vs Hydra		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15546766 (5/24)
Sninja vs Statisticians		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15478682 (5/24)
Statisticians vs FCC		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15683761 (5/25)

2v2: Final Earth



2v2 Volcano Island

Statisticians vs TJC 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15580812 (5/26)

2v2 Szeurope

Hydra vs WG 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375984 (5/21)

3v3 Europe


3v3 Biomes

TJC vs Statisticians 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15560273 (5/23)
Sninja vs Statisticians 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15389945 (5/26)

Statisticians completed quite a few games for this period, providing them some clarity in their standing and proving that they are contenders for promotion in this clan league. Hydra wins a team game, making FCC the only clan that has not won any teams games thus far. And they have not scored a single point of anything since week one. 1-14 is NOT the way to go for your first set of 1v1 games. Pair that with four 0-1 and 1 0-2 start for team games, and the ship starts sinking quickly, and perhaps a strong second stretch might not even suffice for them to overcome a floundering Hydra. That petrifying gaze has to affect someone I suppose.

Edited 5/27/2018 16:52:01

Progressions:



Horse Race:



Analysis:

Nothing is 100% in B at this point. But we can be reasonably confident that this is a race between 4 clans for two slots. (Sninja, WG, Stats, TJC). Sninja has an edge on the other three, but this is defo up for grabs. On the back in, it looks like FCC is still fast-tracked for relegation. Otherwise, not much has changed about these trajectories.

WG surpassed TJC for second place, but this could go any way. (Note that the progressions are including the two games that finished after the supposed update time).

My apologies on the late update. Ill try to be a bit more timely about this next time.

Edited 5/27/2018 17:16:23

I believe it is a testament to your tiredness that "bold detonates winners"

Updated simulations!

Details of the calculation at https://www.warzone.com/Forum/301728-clan-league-10-division-b-official-thread?Offset=63. (that's about 10 posts before this one) (std=standard deviation, PI=prediction interval)

           mean   (std)    95% PI
1. Sninja 144.87 (11.22) [120-167]  (+6)
2. Stats  112.86 (10.16) [ 93-133]  (+8)
3. TJC    109.80 (10.28) [ 90-130]  (-6)
4. [WG]   106.21 (10.70) [ 85-126]  (-2)
5. Hydra   83.68 (10.84) [ 63-105]  (-1)
6. FCC     42.58 (10.40) [ 24-64 ]  (-5)

               1       2       3       4       5       6
  Sninja  94.95%   3.87%   0.93%   0.25%   0.00%   0.00% 
  Stats    2.32%  43.29%  32.23%  19.58%   2.58%   0.00% 
  TJC      1.68%  30.88%  34.93%  28.69%   3.85%   0.00% 
  WG       1.03%  21.30%  29.34%  40.53%   7.80%   0.00% 
  Hydra    0.02%   0.66%   2.57%  10.95%  84.95%   0.85% 
  FCC      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.85%  99.15% 

I'm as surprised as anyone by these results, so I had to double-check. Turns out the algorithm rates Stats better than TJC and WG at this point, probably because Stats has a win against Sninja while TJC and WG have not. WG actually gets a razor thin edge over TJC according to the algorithm as well when it comes to underlying skill at this point, but TJC comes out on top because they already have secured a few more points. The results for 2-4 are all over the place though, so I have to agree with Aura: it's definitely up for grabs (second place).
However, Sninja is now running away with the win according to the algorithm (about 95% now against 84% last time) and has only slightly more than a single percent probability to not promote (5% last update, 8 days ago). Meanwhile FCC has even less chance than that to not relegate (probability to end fifth has halved). At this point, the algorithm thinks it's almost equally likely that Hydra promotes or relegates. (98.5% that we see Hydra in B again next year if they don't drop out of CL).

Edited 5/30/2018 20:47:12

hmmm, from what I understand your algorithm rates Stats better than TJC and WG because Stats are 3-1 vs WG and 2-4 vs TJC, TJC is 1-2 with WG. I guess though Stats have negative win rate vs TJC, because of positive win rate vs WG and TJC's negative win rate vs WG, overall it thinks Stats is suited for 2nd place. Of-course you're weighing the win over Sninja bit more , since they're the clan win the least losses, but places 2-4 can surely go anyway.

@Mega Knight: I agree that is likely the case. It's an optimization procedure, so a little black box, but if it wants to optimize the distances between the different teams, it makes sense that Stats is a little closer to Sninja than the others.

And it's already outdated, with FCC just notching their second win, again versus Hydra. Most things are about the same, but for Hydra and FCC that changes a lot:
FCC is now expected to finish with 47.33 points and has a 2.69% probability not to relegate, more than triple what it was before that game!

@Math Wolf does your algorithm only take account the clans as whole or also templates? (since many clans should be a lot stronger in specific templates due to how they have done their line-ups so if your algorithm only takes into account clans themselves as whole then clans who have had more completed games on their stronger templates could be overrated by your algorithm and vice versa and same for clans who have beat "stronger" clans templates where those "stronger" clans are weaker)

^good point. Another consideration is that each clan has some teams stronger than others. If you are comparing within templates though, that should not matter, barring a sub.

@ max & Chris: I don't take it into account explicitly, because this is simply not possible. If you read the juicy math details, the following part may be of interest though:

"From these calculated scores and their standard deviation, for each simulation a score was drawn. The points in the remaining games were then calculated for each clan under the assumption that the true level of the clan was equal to this simulated score."

Basically, based on finished games, each clan has an underlying skill score, and a measure of variation on that score. When I simulate, I draw from this distribution. So in some runs, a clan may be assumed better than what they seem from the finished games, in other runs, they may be assumed worst. Like this, I take into account that the skill level on different templates may be different and that the finished games are not completely representative (but nevertheless the best guess we have so far).

Stats just won 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 French Brawl (tiebreaker?) tournaments I think?

Tournament Update:

Hello all. The eve of midseason is upon us. Starting tomorrow, clans can start packing in their new players into the midseason registration window and place them into their lineups. There will be a two week dead period while no new games are created and the Qs finish up their games. I am not sure what the plan is, but depending on how long it takes for Q to finish up it may be a while more than two weeks before new games are created. Nevertheless, we can expect some roster changes going out of the midseason in into the second half of the season.

As math wolf did mention, some clan league tournaments did finish up, with statisticains taking the first two 1v1 tournaments completed.

French Brawl Final Results:



Guiroma Final Results:



Congratulations to Jackie Treehorn and Yeon for an excellent job in securing these tournament wins!

Edited 6/3/2018 04:03:10

Comprehensive Update VI:

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

Sninja 			56
Statisticians		49
TJC			44
WG			42
Hydra			25
FCC			8

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			191
WG			171
TJC			170
Statisticians		167
Hydra			145
FCC			132

Completed Games: (Bold denotes winner):

1v1: Guiroma (Completed)

Statisticians vs Sninja		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15662523 (6/2)

1v1: French Brawl (Completed)

Sninja vs Hydra			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15642523 (5/29)
Statisticians vs Sninja		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15506237  (5/29)
Sninja vs FCC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15573143  (5/30)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

Sninja vs Hydra	 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15683760  (6/2)

2v2: Final Earth

Statisticians vs WG		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15560271 (5/27)
Statisticians vs Hydra		DELETED (6/2)

2v2 Volcano Island

No eruptions to report of at this time...

2v2 Szeurope

Sninja vs TJC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID= 	15540384  (5/27)

3v3 Europe

FCC vs Hydra 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID= 	15540384  (5/29)

3v3 Biomes

Let them think on it a bit.

Edited 6/3/2018 06:02:36

Progressions:



Horse Race:



Analysis:

FCC found their first win since week 1 vs hydra on 3v3 europe. With that, their long drought is over. Maybe mid-season registration can salvage their season yet. If they have the players for it, that is.

Hydra seems to further separate themselves from the top four and currently are holding tight to the 5th place rung. It is defo FCC vs Hydra for relegation/not relegation, and this is definitely Hydra's place to lose. Ppface, however, went inactive, and delivered a free win to stats, as well as booting on active games. So that's not good for them...

Once again, there really isn't anything decisive going on with the top four. Max points hasn't changed much, with sninja still holding onto a 17 point margin, but for the obtained points the Stats, TJC, and WG all shuffled. This will definitely be a nail-biter to the finish for who gets these slots it seems.

Edited 6/3/2018 04:44:58

Aura Guardian you should really be saying "Bold denotes winner", not "Bold detonates winner". The latter says that the player in bold blows up [read, explodes] the winner, which when taken into account that you only bold winners, means the winners blow themselves up…

Someone told me that last update too... then i forgot lmao.

I fixed it now.

Guess my terrorist nature rubbed off a bit here.

Maybe the winner just detonates from joy xD

Hydra is gonna detonate after they relegate :P

Comprehensive Update VII:

As we head into the interim period where no games are created, updates will be fairly minimal in nature since there really much going on at this time.

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

Sninja 			61
Statisticians		49
WG			49
TJC			44
Hydra			25
FCC			8

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			191
WG			171
TJC			170
Statisticians		160
Hydra			145
FCC			127

Completed Games: (Bold denotes winner):

1v1: Elitist Africa:

WG vs Statisticians 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15615227 (6/6)

2v2: Final Earth

Loading, please wait...

2v2 Volcano Island

We sure there's a volcano here?

2v2 Szeurope

WG vs Statisticians 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15540385  (6/9)

3v3 Europe

The rival symphonies are still trying to compose their next movement.

3v3 Biomes

Sninja vs FCC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15560274 (6/3)

Edited 6/10/2018 20:28:39

Progressions:



Horse Race:



Analysis:

A quiet week. Not much to talk about, not much has changed. Statisticians lost two games, which sinks their positioning a bit, but otherwise seems to still be a rather tight race between the top 4. Hydra and FCC are both pretty stalled. Seems neither FCC wants to catch up, nor Hydra break away, but then again, there are no games being created at this time, nor will there be until later this month, as the interim period continues to wind on.

Edited 6/10/2018 23:21:19