As hinted at before, I wanted to check the match-ups of the finished games to see if some clans had more advantage from feasting on weak clans so far.
Meet the ASOS metric for this. ASOS=adjusted strength of schedule, I defined this as the
win % of opponents in games against the other teams. If your ASOS is high, it means your opponents won often against other clans, if your ASOS is low, it means your opponents lost often against other clans. In this case: play often against Sninja or TJC for a high ASOS, play often against FCC for a low ASOS. Because of the balanced nature of the competition, all teams will end Clan League with an ASOS of 50%. An ASOS of 55% is considered a difficult schedule, a 60% ASOS is a very difficult one, an ASOS of 45% is considered a weak schedule, while an ASOS of 40% is considered very weak.
Sninja: 2 TJC, 2 WG, 1 Stats, 2 Hydra, 4 FCC, ASOS: 40.55% (games), 39.46% (points)
TJC: 2 Sninja, 3 WG, 4 Stats, 5 Hydra, 3 FCC, ASOS: 53.48% (games), 52.00% (points)
[WG]: 2 Sninja, 3 TJC, 3 Stats, 5 Hydra, 5 FCC, ASOS: 42.61% (games), 39.07% (points)
Stats: 1 Sninja, 4 TJC, 3 WG, 2 Hydra, 2 FCC, ASOS: 51.90% (games), 54.46% (points)
Hydra: 2 Sninja, 5 TJC, 5 WG, 2 Stats, 3 FCC, ASOS: 52.90% (games), 55.63% (points)
FCC: 4 Sninja, 3 TJC, 5 WG, 2 Stats, 3 Hydra, ASOS: 53.74% (games), 54.71% (points)
Before I started, I thought this might not say much actually, but to my surprise, it actually does tell us a lot! You can clearly see that Sninja and WG have been feasting on the weaker teams a lot more! For both clans, more than half of their games have been against Hydra and FCC. For [WG], more than half of their points are from wins against FCC even! (20 out of 39). This gives them a very weak strength of schedule so far. Meanwhile, the other clans have a very similar schedule, all just a little higher than expected to compensate. If you look at this, TJC looks a lot stronger than their record indicates, and [WG] actually looks weaker. Their ([WG]) good team record? Mainly FCC feasting...
I went one step further and used this to (very) naively predict the remaining games/points. I wanted to get a first idea if this actually means that TJC has a reasonable chance to still tie Sninja.
Method (skip this if you don't like the juicy math details) I did this in a Bayesian way by giving every team a 50% prior head start (a theoretical 10/20 points won). For every game won or lost, the number of points were added. This gives Sninja now a hypothetical 45/58=77.58% win rate rather than their real 35/38 record. This is to allow regression to the mean. In each remaining game, I pit the two teams and divide the points proportional to the hypothetical win rate. E.g. a 2v2 between Sninja and Stats (WR=51.61%) would earn Sninja 2.4 point (4 * 77.58% / (77.58%+51.61%)). This is obviously not the best way to do this, but it's the quickest to do without spending another hour writing code (which I might still do). The final results are as follows:
Sninja: 137
TJC: 121
[WG]: 113
Stats: 106
Hydra: 88
FCC: 35
I find it noteworthy that according to this method, FCC is really behind the others at one end, while Sninja may not be as dominant as their current record indicates. Hydra is closer to Sninja than to FCC!
Of course, this methodology is very crude and there is obviously a lot of variation in the results, but I found it quite interesting nevertheless.
