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The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 19:00:20


rakleader 
Level 64
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Ladies and gentlemen, the moment you’ve all been waiting for is here!
Eight months after the challenge was first issued, Nauz (aka Johnny Silverhand) has finally accepted to face Phobos in a challenge that is bound to make Warzone history.

The rules are simple: it’s a best of 11 multi-day games on Strat MME, and the first player to win 6 games wins the challenge.

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An event of this magnitude deserves an exhaustive coverage, which is why I’m currently gathering the greatest Strat MME specialists.

A Pick Rating Panel has been assembled, featuring three 1v1 Ladder trophy holders (DrApe, Jefferspin and krunx). After each game of the challenge finishes, those three Warzone legends will look at both players’ picks and rate them on a 0-10 scale. At long last, we’ll find out which player is the best picker!

I’m also in the process of recruiting other 1v1 Ladder specialists to write in-depth analyses of the games themselves. Feel free to contact me if you're interested.

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But first, let’s kick off this thread by doing a little survey and predicting the results of the challenge.
If you want to participate, you only have to copy/paste the following questions and reply to this thread:

Is Phobos an elite player? (Why?)
Is Nauz an elite player? (Why?)
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games?
Who will win this challenge?
What will be the final score?
Who will be crowned best picker?

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players?
Will Nauz ever get a trophy?
Are Masters too arrogant?


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Let’s go!
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 19:00:46


rakleader 
Level 64
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The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 19:03:32


Kratt 
Level 61
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Down in front!
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 19:04:15


Rick Sanchez
Level 59
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Is Phobos an elite player? - yes (cool name, cool dude and a good clan)
Is Nauz an elite player? - no, he talks too much. samu is better than him/her/they/them/it.
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games - maybe wz shuts down.
Who will win this challenge - phobos
What will be the final score - 6-1 (phobos winning)
Who will be crowned best picker? - phobos

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? - sammu and nauz
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? - no
Are Masters too arrogant? - yes, addy the dog is number 2 after nauz.

Edited 5/18/2021 19:04:36
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 19:45:53


l4v.r0v 
Level 59
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Is Phobos an elite player? (Why?) No
Is Nauz an elite player? (Why?) Yes
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games? Yes
Who will win this challenge? Nauz
What will be the final score? 6-1
Who will be crowned best picker? Nauz, for not picking this fight

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? No
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? Yes
Are Masters too arrogant? No

(this is just to balance rick out)

Edited 5/18/2021 19:47:45
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 23:37:44


Phobos 
Level 62
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First game might finish today, so get your predictions in now.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/18/2021 23:47:31


Ocean0.1 
Level 59
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#GoPhobos
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 01:05:46

DrApe 
Level 62
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Is Phobos an elite player? (Why?) No, I haven't seen much that would give him the label "elite". A 1v1 trophy is no longer very significant, especially considering the circumstances of this one.
Is Nauz an elite player? (Why?) No. Same as above, except he doesn't have a trophy.
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games? Yes
Who will win this challenge? Nauzhror
What will be the final score? 6-3
Who will be crowned best picker? Nauzhror

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? Not really, but I'd be open to any challengers.
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? Yes
Are Masters too arrogant? There are certainly some more arrogant individuals, but they're a nice bunch for the most part.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 01:16:53


krinid 
Level 61
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Is Phobos an elite player? Yes
Is Nauz an elite player? Yes
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games? No, they'll both play properly.
Who will win this challenge? Flip a coin . . .
What will be the final score? 6-5 for whoever wins the coin toss. Honestly just want to see some good play, doesn't really matter who wins. Doesn't change anything.
Who will be crowned best picker? Evenly matched.

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? Winner plays the next elite player and so on!
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? Yes
Are Masters too arrogant? Sometimes

Edited 5/19/2021 01:17:22
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 02:09:24


Johnny Silverhand 
Level 58
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Rak should analyze all the games, and stream himself doing so.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 03:13:50


sanmu the shamu
Level 59
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Is Phobos an elite player? - 100% yes. You don't name yourself after the larger moon of Mars unless your penis size is at least greater than 6 inches.
Is Nauz an elite player? - No, for the reasons stated above.
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games - Nauz probably quits after 1 or 2 losses.
Who will win this challenge - Phobos
What will be the final score - 6-0 (Phobos)
Who will be crowned best picker? - Nauz. This man analyzes picks like no other.

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? - ;)
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? - Do participation trophies count?
Are Masters too arrogant? - Some of them are without a doubt. Others are not. Honestly, they only seem to have members on both extremes.

Edited 5/19/2021 03:27:42
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 03:33:19


Johnny Silverhand 
Level 58
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Sorry, 6-0 predicts are spoiled.

1-0 my lead: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26949008

Edited 5/19/2021 03:34:35
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 03:42:00


Phobos 
Level 62
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Congrats on Nauz taking the first game. There's a reason I challenged best of 11 and not best of 1 :)

Second game has been created:

https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26962979
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 03:46:33


Johnny Silverhand 
Level 58
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Oh, I'm not claiming that I've won the series, I just said any 6-0 prediction is spoiled. I still think it's very possible of going either way. Despite criticizing your picks and being blunt, I don't think you're a bad player.

If I were to group players into distinct tiers, I'd put you in Tier C, I'd also put myself in Tier C.

Tier C has no relation to Div C in CL to clarify.

Tier A are players I'd expect to beat under 25%. Tier B 25-40%, Tier C 40-60%. Ranking players vs each other when they're close-ish is hard IMO, but putting people into vague tiers isn't that hard usually.

I think the one error I probably made was taking Southeast Asia. It worked okay in the end, but I think hitting Tomsk turn 4 with a stack is probably the safer win. Otherwise turn 5 I gamble on having first order if he hits with a big stack.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:15:45
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:04:22


Norman 
Level 58
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https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26949008

Very interesting picks by Nauzhror and a very bold initial expansion. At least the expansion could also have easily backfired IMO. But then again I believe I might actually agree with both his picks and his expansion, go big or gome home.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:07:13
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:06:06


Bonsai 
Level 62
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The game play here is not optimized for (using) information. See what I did there. I'll be here all day.

Phobos has no intel, but there can't be many places that Nauz can be - but Phobos doesn't really seem to have a plan in the middle turns.

On the other hand, I question Nauz going for WC first given the potential ftb pick in Pakistan.

Luckily I'll probably get a really long explanation.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:13:15


Carnage
Level 21
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IMGAINE 40 OF THESE GUYS GOING AT IN AN FFA! OMG THE INSANITY IT WOULD BE!
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:13:38


Johnny Silverhand 
Level 58
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Pakistan's risky, I knew if he had it and hit WC turn 2 that the game was over, but I don't at all like Pakistan vs EC. As such I expected most opponents to pick EC as #1, and not pick Pakistan.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:15:11


Phobos 
Level 62
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My explanation is simple. I had no intel but know Nauz has some combination of the Asia/Indo/Aus picks. If he has pakistan (roughly in my brain this was 50% chance) then a stack in georgia turn 4 is expected and I try to beat the stack, with the logic that if it doesn't show up I can probably recover (I couldn't).

I assumed Nauz didn't double pick west china because it's so easy to get a pick set with pakistan. If I 3-4-5 counter the FTB instead of 4-5-6 I win this game very easily. I didn't and Nauz's bold choice paid off. Without knowing he picked west china and immediately stacking to counter it, the game is lost.

I know several people will disagree with my expansion turn 5. I stand by it's a reasonable decision if you assume that Nauz did not start with West China.
The Challenge: Phobos vs Nauz (Megathread): 5/19/2021 04:44:30


Norman 
Level 58
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Pakistan's risky, I knew if he had it and hit WC turn 2 that the game was over

That looks like an acceptable risk for me given that this would require Phobos not only sitting in Pakistan but probably having a clue about West China. Else there is no reason to not move already turn 1.

If Phobos was in Pakistan and Nauzhror had expanded more ordinary, Nauzhror would have 2 more income from his bonuses, some armies momentum and when in question could also expand. An ordinary expansion would have probably won Nauzhror the game then but his gameplay which he opted for probably not.

If Phobos was not in Pakistan, then Nauzhror could have guessed Phobos' last pick with a pretty high likelihood to be West Russia. In order to evaluate whether Nauzhrors expansion was a mistake you would have to evaluate whether an ordinary expansion would have won against West Russia as Phobos' third pick. I believe I would prefer Nauzhrors position over Phobos' with Nauzhor expanding in a conventional way however the game would certainly have been less of a clear win than with Nauzhrors bold expansion.

For this reason I see both Nauzhrors picks and expansion not contradicting optimal play but his expansion is maybe stretching it.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:45:14
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