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So, as a situation analysis:

- I like it very much not seeing Rufus in Europe / Russia. IMO the real mistake of the A picks weren't South America but the picks there. However, we aren't getting punished by Rufus siting in Scandinavian Peninsula.

- Of course Central America > South America however IMO playing against South America from Central America isn't that easy and Rufus has a lot of pressure guessing our South America play correct. The fog is our friend there.

So where is Rufus?
- Central America (obviously)
- East Africa: I believe so since it's the best unknown viable bonus.
- This leaves open West Africa or East China. IMO East China is a poor bonus, I don't believe he is there. West Africa + East Africa was my own choice however I didn't want to combine this with Central America but I guess Rufus saw that differently.


It kinda feels like that Rufus messed his picks up to some extent. Us picking West Russia as number 2 might have surprised him so he lost his spot there.

I bet that,

Rufus is in CA, East Africa (as Norman said), and then Caucasus (as a counter to that area).

Edited 7/8/2020 20:47:45

I always felt that I could relate to Rufus' way to pick and Caucasus is something which doesn't feel right to me. IMO Rufus is also asking himself mainly "How could those picks lose me the game?" instead of "How could those picks crush my opponent?".

Caucasus would have to be a blind counter in order to Rufus not accidentally getting 2 spots in Russia. If the opponent manages to defend West Russia, Rufus risks a swift defeat. Well, maybe I'm wrong about Caucasus however it's certainly not a pick I would build a strategy around.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rufus is in Caucasus. He has made crush-my-opponent picks against me before (https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=23086595, albeit this is a 2/3/6). Plus Caucasus doesn't have to be a gamble on a blind counter: if Rufus's 1/2/3/4 were CA/SA/WR/Cauc, then he'd get or block the CA/SA combo and get or block the WR/Cauc combo, with the Cauc counter being possibly pretty strong against both WR/CR and WR/Scan. The CA/WR/Cauc start could be fatal with an opponent in CR, though, so maybe Rufus's picks looked like: CA/SA/EAf/WR/Cauc/???- that way, the Cauc counter isn't too risky for Rufus to go for, because it wouldn't be blind and it wouldn't come at the cost of a safe bonus in EAf.

If Rufus has Cauc, then we might already be at a pretty steep disadvantage while Rufus has fairly secure income in at least 1 place on the map (my bet is E. Africa).

Edited 7/8/2020 22:20:51

Well... I'd say he is in EA and EC. Clustering his first 3 or 4 picks CA WA EA (SA) makes no sense. CAU without picking CR also doesn't make sense. ME,however is a good slow counter to SCA+WR and that's a possibility. EC is much safer pick though.

@Norman: good point about how Rufus tends to think about picks.

I think you are right that EC is a weak way to control Asia, so lets rule that out.

East Russia is possible, as is Middle East (as Cloud points out). Also, East Russia is a bit big to get in a brawly fight, and Middle East offers a counter to East Africa ...

So, my new opinion is that he has CA, East Africa, and Middle East, where Middle East was designed as either a counter to East Africa or as a way to surprisingly smash up later to attack West Russia/Scandinavia.

Edited 7/8/2020 22:37:27

EC also has a slow counter path to the Scan/CR/WR/CAU cluster thanks to ER's 3:1 positional advantage.

But I don't think Rufus would've let y'all get the Scan/CR/WR/CAU cluster without a counter ready to strike (EDIT: ME would also work here).

Going for CAU would be non-intuitive but imo makes sense as a way to control the map; WR/CR would trigger an immediate brawl which puts Rufus at a disadvantage if Rufus's only safe bonus is a 5:4 while we have 4:3 Scandinvia, but delaying that brawl by 1-2 turns would allow Rufus to trigger it with an income advantage + a distraction in CA/SA. At least, I wouldn't count on Rufus not being in CAU or ME.

Edited 7/8/2020 22:33:22

The more I think about it and try to construct possible pick sets. The more I think Middle East is one of Rufus' picks. Although blind CAU is also possible.

Edited 7/8/2020 23:57:52

Middle East looks interesting. Central America + East Africa + Middle East is something which I haven't seen myself however now that Quicksilver has mentioned it, I kinda like those picks. The problem I see with the Middle East is how difficult it is to take the bonus, that 1 extra territory makes it pretty awkward. A counter pick where you take your bonus, show up at your opponents doorstep with a double border whenever you feel like it and as a plus side your opponent can't effectively play against that pick. I have no idea whether Rufus has picked Middle East, however I'm getting some vibes here.

Edited 7/9/2020 20:39:33

LETS PLAY MINECRAFT?