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Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 11:59:31

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Number of Blockades per game:

Blockades       0       1       2       3       4       5       6
    Total   46622   36737   13520    1703     678      15      10
        %    47.0    37.0    13.6     1.7     0.7     0.0     0.0

I was surprised there were 10 games with 6 blockades.


Which territories are blockaded, with how many armies, in which turn, how often blockade broken, and how often does blockader win?

TERRITORY                  BLOCK%    ARMY    TURN  BREAK%    WIN%
Svalbard                      5.0    20.8     8.7    13.5    41.8
Scott                         4.0    25.4     8.6    17.9    39.9
Iran                          3.7    35.0    11.6     9.7    48.4
Thailand                      3.6    23.3     9.9    14.1    45.8
South Pole                    3.5    29.0     9.0    17.0    33.4
Hawaii                        3.2    35.5    12.5     9.4    49.5
Argentina                     3.0    23.9     7.6    13.4    40.9
Brazil                        2.8    28.2     8.9    15.9    39.1
Siple                         2.8    23.5     8.2    14.9    43.1
Pakistan                      2.4    21.1     9.0    15.6    38.3
Nigeria                       2.4    29.9    10.6    14.0    40.3
Mexico                        2.4    26.7     9.8    11.2    34.8
Novolazarevskaya              2.3    24.4     8.9    13.2    31.8
Taiwan                        2.0    22.7    10.5     9.3    43.3
Baja                          1.9    17.5     8.2    12.8    35.9
South Africa                  1.8    27.9     9.3    11.7    41.9
Panama                        1.8    21.9     8.2     7.4    42.2
Malaysia                      1.7    25.9     9.8    15.0    45.9
Egypt                         1.7    38.3    12.1    12.6    40.9
Murmansk                      1.7    19.4     8.9    10.2    43.5
Cuba                          1.7    22.0     8.7     9.1    41.2
Norway                        1.5    28.1     8.4    10.7    37.1
Myanmar                       1.5    22.3     9.2     9.7    34.5
Spain                         1.4    37.8    13.4    10.9    40.8
Venezuela                     1.3    21.5     8.1    13.7    29.9
Ufa                           1.3    20.6     8.3    14.3    42.4
Congo                         1.3    21.2     9.4    12.7    30.6
Colombia                      1.2    24.7     8.5    13.7    31.8
Papua New Guinea              1.1    28.1    10.7    11.0    31.6
Georgia                       1.0    25.9    11.2     9.0    47.0
Finland                       1.0    20.7     7.2     9.7    38.7
California                    1.0    33.0    11.9    15.8    45.9
Philippines                   1.0    24.7     9.8    10.2    38.5
Dudinka                       0.9    20.3     9.7     9.9    41.6
Solomon Islands               0.9    23.5    10.5    12.6    34.3
India                         0.9    21.3     8.7    11.6    35.9
Tomsk                         0.9    22.6     9.6    12.9    36.1
Hong Kong                     0.9    22.8     8.5    11.0    43.9
Xinjiang                      0.9    25.7    11.1    10.0    49.0
Tasmania                      0.8    26.9    11.0    15.4    33.6
Beijing                       0.8    18.7    10.1    13.8    32.7
Sweden                        0.8    20.3     8.1    10.0    40.4
Moscow                        0.7    24.4     9.5     7.9    42.6
Danmark Havn                  0.7    30.7    11.4    12.3    53.8
Algeria                       0.7    37.3    12.7    10.7    46.0
Shanghai                      0.7    29.3    10.5     9.4    36.5
Vorkuta                       0.7    19.2     9.5    10.7    37.3
Queensland                    0.6    26.0    10.3     9.3    35.4
Japan                         0.6    37.5    13.3     8.9    52.0
Alaska                        0.6    42.4    15.5     7.0    45.9
Israel                        0.6    30.6    12.3     6.6    38.6
New Zealand                   0.6    24.9    11.7     9.0    34.4
Ukraine                       0.6    31.6    13.3     9.5    45.6
Jessej                        0.6    19.7     9.7    11.4    31.4
Western Australia             0.6    25.5    10.3    12.1    38.4
Bolivia                       0.5    18.5     8.8    18.2    31.9
Iceland                       0.5    33.6    14.1    10.8    39.6
Eastern Kazakhstan            0.5    22.5    10.4     8.4    38.9
France                        0.5    45.3    13.5    12.6    38.3
United Kingdom                0.4    33.8    13.8    11.3    37.1
Ghana                         0.4    17.7     9.6    11.7    35.0
Chad                          0.4    22.8     8.8    10.4    35.1
Sudan                         0.4    24.9    11.0    10.4    30.6
Tura                          0.4    19.9     9.7    10.8    33.7
Kenya                         0.4    21.6    10.9    12.5    39.4
Turkey                        0.4    36.0    13.7     5.4    38.6
Tadschikistan                 0.4    24.5    10.4    10.5    41.2
Nuuk                          0.4    29.3    12.9     8.8    30.2
Omsk                          0.3    25.1     9.6     6.1    43.4
Arkhangelsk                   0.3    25.2     9.2    13.7    34.0
Tibet                         0.3    22.5    10.6    10.9    44.3
Western Siberia               0.3    29.3    13.6     6.7    41.5
Saudi Arabia                  0.3    29.8    13.1     4.9    35.7
Florida                       0.3    30.2    14.0     9.7    42.3
Borneo                        0.3    20.7     8.9     9.9    27.1
Anadyr                        0.3    44.0    16.1     9.9    36.1
Quebec                        0.3    28.9    14.2    12.0    49.7
Qaanaaq                       0.3    25.6    12.7    11.2    26.1
Jiangxi                       0.3    22.1     8.4    12.8    29.3
South Australia               0.2    28.0    11.0    14.6    29.2
Shaanxi                       0.2    24.3    11.7     9.7    33.7
Mongolia                      0.2    29.2    12.1    10.3    46.6
Kyrgyzstan                    0.2    26.6    11.5     9.7    37.9
Nunavut                       0.2    27.8    13.4     4.1    49.6
Western Kazakhstan            0.2    26.0    11.7    12.6    32.8
Germany                       0.2    31.5    11.8    11.0    45.0
Italy                         0.2    38.4    14.3     3.7    43.5
Cameroon                      0.1    19.1     7.9    14.0    29.9
Itseqqortoormiit              0.1    33.4    12.5    17.1    39.0
Ethiopia                      0.1    18.4     9.2    18.6    35.3
Somalia                       0.1    24.3     9.4     7.0    33.0
Iraq                          0.1    34.3    12.8     7.1    30.3
Inner Mongolia                0.1    22.8    11.7     8.2    44.9
Turkmenistan                  0.1    28.1    12.3    12.2    39.8
Heilongjiang                  0.1    24.4    13.2     8.3    38.5
Southwest                     0.1    24.4    12.6    14.0    36.6
New Southwales                0.1    25.7    11.7    14.3    29.7
Nord                          0.1    35.4    12.8     8.8    34.1
Angola                        0.1    20.4    10.3     6.7    30.3
Niger                         0.1    26.4    10.9    12.5    35.2
Mauritania                    0.1    19.4    11.0    10.5    26.7
Libya                         0.1    25.7    11.0     9.3    44.0
Texas                         0.1    26.7    13.9     6.8    35.1
Great Plains                  0.1    27.5    14.4    19.4    36.1
Afghanistan                   0.1    25.3    11.7     8.7    40.6
Botswana                      0.1    25.9     9.7     8.1    35.5
Alberta                       0.1    32.6    13.9     9.8    36.1
Atlantic Northeast            0.1    30.4    13.4     8.9    32.1
Namibia                       0.1    24.8     8.5    17.9    23.2
British Columbia              0.1    31.9    16.1     9.3    35.2
Madagascar                    0.1    19.3    10.3    23.3    32.6
Khabarovsk                    0.1    35.4    14.9    19.0    52.4
Midwest                       0.1    29.6    12.9    10.0    30.0
Rocky Mountains               0.0    33.7    13.6     8.6    37.1
Qinghai                       0.0    22.2    10.8     9.1    27.3
Mali                          0.0    21.9    10.3     3.1    31.3
Pacific Northwest             0.0    36.7    13.6     3.2    38.7
Gulf Coast                    0.0    33.2    12.2     7.4    29.6
Great Basin                   0.0    25.4    13.2    14.8    25.9
Tennessee                     0.0    25.7    12.0     7.7    23.1
Mys Lopatk                    0.0    26.5    15.3     4.5    40.9
Western Great Lakes           0.0    26.6    12.3    10.0    20.0
Ontario                       0.0    30.3    13.7     0.0    30.0
Kamchatka                     0.0    24.8    14.7    16.7    33.3
Eastern Siberia               0.0    31.2    17.8    17.6    35.3
Poland                        0.0    26.2    13.7     5.9    41.2
Yukon                         0.0    27.4    16.3     7.1    50.0
Eastern Great Lakes           0.0    31.7    17.8     0.0    69.2
Chita                         0.0    57.8    14.8     0.0    38.5
Northwest Territories         0.0    35.5    15.6     0.0    45.5
Korea                         0.0    60.0    10.5     0.0     0.0
TOTAL                       100.0    26.1    10.0    12.2    39.8


Iran being 3rd surprised me.
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 12:19:32

DanWL 
Level 62
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Iran being 3rd surprised me.

Iran borders many bonuses, so by blockading it, your bonuses are defended. Most of the time, I blockaid Iran.


Cornucopia better not comment ;)
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 13:14:32


Tristan
Level 57
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You have an awful lot of free time o:
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 13:41:55

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
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Antartica total 12.6%, knew it will be high.
Norway so far behind Svalbard is a bit surprising, but actually make sense.
Total 39.8% win is really interesting, only few above 50% too (and none among most popular ones).
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 14:09:24


knyte 
Level 58
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Iran is a great blockade if you've got a significant number of territories in Asia- it's a big weakness for both Caucasus (Kazakhstan) and SE Asia (India). I've turneda around many a game simply by taking Iran (to be fair, the opponents who lost to that were also the ones who went all-in on a China start).

Also, I don't know how the Game feed API output handles failed blockades- does your code count those?

Edited 6/25/2015 14:10:57
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 14:36:38


Beren • apex 
Level 63
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@Widzisz, this data seems to confirm what we kind of already knew - people tend to blockade when they're in trouble. I wonder if it would change if we restricted the data to the top 50 players again. Are top players more likely to use blockades when ahead or even than poor players?
Analysis: Blockades: 6/25/2015 23:50:14

Hennns
Level 58
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Thanks Smileyleg :)


Indeed very interesting with the below 50% win rate, but doesn't surprise me. Especially if this includes games where both players blockaded, since that would drag the averages to 50%.

The territory blockaded first is Finland, not sure what to make of that, except that scand is a contested area.

Funny that every territory have been blockaded, makes sense as you'd do that to prevent an opponent from taking any that bonus, but still not something I'd expect.

I wonder if there's an inverse correlation between win rate and break rate, but that only seems true for places I'd expect a typical blockade.

One final thing I note is the very high army count, seems like a lot of blockades are too large, I think this would be much lower from top 50 players.
Analysis: Blockades: 6/26/2015 00:22:16


Fallen Angel
Level 55
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Hi, could I make a request for the next analysis (if there is a next?)? Could you analyze which groups of picks win the most (ex. Boston triple or SA+CA+Scan, etc). Combining that with the info from https://www.warlight.net/Forum/96596-analysis-picks-win would make some fascinating insights.
Analysis: Blockades: 6/27/2015 13:08:22


(ง︡'-'︠)ง let's fight!! 
Level 60
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in case that there is 1 blockade per game. Who won more often the blockader or the otherone?
Analysis: Blockades: 6/27/2015 14:39:16


Le Count H 
Level 57
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It would make sense Svelvard is blockaded for it would make your opponent not able to complete that bonus that is listed as most easily taken. It is one of those awesome things to feel you did when youre the person who prevented it but the person trying to get it would feel it as one of the most frustrating things.
Analysis: Blockades: 6/27/2015 17:16:28

smileyleg 
Level 61
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When only one player blockades, that player wins about 40% of the time.

Only successful blockades are counted. You can tell failed blockades from the game feed API though.

Fallen Angel: I will keep that one in mind!
Analysis: Blockades: 6/28/2015 15:25:26

RvW 
Level 46
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One piece of information which is currently missing from the analysis and could be very interesting (but might be a little difficult to determine automatically) is whether the blockade is inside the bonus (sacrificing it, but stopping the opponent's advance) or outside the bonus (keeping the bonus intact, stopping the opponent's advance and preventing them from getting a bonus).

This could mark the difference between a last, futile attempt to prevent imminent defeat (but only forestalling it, not actually averting it), or a decision to "close" one front, to focus on another one (where you're beating your opponent).

For instance, seeing that Danmark Havn gets blockaded tells me nothing; it makes a big difference whether it's done by the person controlling Greenland or by the person controlling Scandinavia.
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 07:50:04

Aaron Wolff
Level 46
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What reason could one possibly have for blockading Madagascar?
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 09:19:51


Pink 
Level 60
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stopping someone from getting the bonsu as has been said above
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 09:23:45


Pink 
Level 60
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ifi understood this correctly, the player who blockades Eastern Great Lakes wins 69% of the times, next time ill blockade it as soon as i get it :P
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 11:37:40


OxTheAutist 
Level 58
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I always blockade Yukon. It's the most strategic move I ever make commonly. What are these so called "skilled" players thinking?
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 14:15:46


knyte 
Level 58
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@Pink: I'm going to start picking only wastelands because getting 1/2/3 makes it much more likely that I'll win the game, according to smiley's other analysis. >_<
Analysis: Blockades: 7/2/2015 15:39:44


Pink 
Level 60
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yeah knyte, i believe we are on the way to become some fo the best players in warlight
Analysis: Blockades: 7/13/2015 21:25:38

Weibull Guy
Level 55
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I think that the multiple blockades has a definite conditional probability involved. My observation is that once one person sets a blockade other players tend to follow. Almost as if players forget that they have that card in their "pocket" until someone else plays it. Again, this is more of an opinion based on a sample sample size.
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