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Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/3/2022 21:38:01


Derfellios 
Level 61
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Greetings! After (far too) many consecutive seasons playing in B, it seems to be my turn to keep the scores (fairly).

I am planning to do it a bit different than usual and try to give statistics -- both useful and senseless -- this season. Only, after an eight-hour-long train ride through the German countryside today, I have a headache and don't have anything juicy as of yet. I won't try to digest every game as it would be an enormous effort for probably mostly rubbish.

Who are the contenders of this season for the two spots in A?

First, we have [Blitz] , an old-timer clan, who we have seen bouncing around the divisions for ages. Yet, for the last few seasons, they have been surprisingly stable in B and barely avoided relegation last season due to some helpful mergers at the top. With a crew of seasoned players and young, experienced talent -- their recruitment efforts did not result in big surprises in the line-up -- they hope to return to their former home, division A, this year.

Secondly, there is {101st} , another old clan with a long history. They made it to A but played in the bottom divisions as well. Like blitz, they are a fairly stable B clan but have taken more risk in their line-up with many new faces. Will they make A this year?

Next, we have CORP , yet another old clan (ignoring the 2016 clan-change) that has been floating between B and C the past seasons. They seem to have produced a line-up with lots of WZ regulars with few surprises, and with a new chance in B, they might be able to surprise.

Moreover, the other promotee, Discovery is the youngest clan of the lot, being "only" four years old, half the age of the second youngest clan (Yeah, they truly entered a grandpa reunion). Yet, being part of the offspring of FCC and integrated by the "new" clan TSFH, it has one of the most original line-ups this season.

Then we have French Community , former champions, who had to start allover a few seasons ago. A dramatic rise to the top halted last season in B with a 5th place, something they surely want to improve. With players from their championship season still around, it is surely no team worth underestimating.

Good Gamers is another old clan with a long history of success in clan league, but for the past few seasons, they have been floating between A and B, unable to beat many top-tier clans but able to fight their way through B with ease. Anything less than promoting would be disappointing concerning their past, so quite a task lies ahead. MIFRAN and JV have been around for ages, but the line-up also features newcomers and later generations.

And finally, last but not least, M'Hunters also has a long Clan League history. For example, they have the second-highest number of points collected in B in a single season. They know what it is like to dominate. Most players only play one slot, and such a wide line-up will be an advantage when the games start to pile up. Last season, they ended 4th in B, and I can only presume they want to do better in 2022.



Links:


Edited 1/3/2022 21:45:51
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/3/2022 21:42:28


Jefferspin 
Level 62
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ez
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/3/2022 22:21:58


Motoki 
Level 62
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Person above me is the best player on this site.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/3/2022 23:02:20

Photonic Symmetry
Level 60
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Discovery isn't the "offspring" of FCC but I can forgive people for having that idea.

Changes soon to come! Hopefully.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/4/2022 00:31:05


finding machine-washed cloth
Level 62
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Here it is, the most exciting division in clan league this season. Good luck to all participants except those who face me. I hope you all boot.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/4/2022 09:06:30


Crazy@+_癫神 
Level 63
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Blitz with Jeff is winning indubitably. Hard, if not impossible for them to have no boots, but I trust Jeff and he is bringing Blitz to A-div.
No objections, he succeeded last season. This season, all he has to do is to convince people to have more merges. Go Jeff!

Edited 1/4/2022 09:06:58
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/4/2022 23:38:56

SerFen
Level 62
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Sons of Jeff, of Farah, my clanmates! I see in your profiles the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the banked time fails, when we forsake our teammates, and break all rules of CL; but it is not this day! An hour of boot, and unfresh jokes, when Blitz will stop recruiting; but it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good site, I bid you stand, Men of the Blitz!
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/9/2022 23:35:51


SkekUng
Level 61
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Good luck everyone (and especially 101st, unfortunate about the boots already). I'm excited for a competitive season!
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/12/2022 18:07:39


THE AWESOME OTTERYCAT 
Level 60
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101st would like to make four subs:

Template: Deadman's Rome 3v3
Player out: Ancient
Player in: Lym

Template: Deadman's Rome 3v3
Player out: ohhhesocute(づ。 ‿‿ 。)づ
Player in: Otterycat

Template: Strat MME 2v2
Player out: Ancient
Player in: 6th D. Kage

Template: Strat MME 2v2
Player out: ohhhesocute(づ。 ‿‿ 。)づ
Player in: MoriOri
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 1/12/2022 18:57:08


Cursona 
Level 59
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I'm cheering for Blitz, swearing my allegiance now
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 2/2/2022 00:50:28


THE AWESOME OTTERYCAT 
Level 60
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Another day, another substitution incoming for 101st,

Template: Middle Earth 3v3
Player out: Xera
Player in: Kant

Subs remaining: 7
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 2/11/2022 02:14:45


finding machine-washed cloth
Level 62
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corp sub. in: jirai gumo https://www.warzone.com/Profile?p=69136516268 (in our subs list with different name)
out: me (finding machine-washed cloth)
template: aseridith islands
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 2/14/2022 19:27:23


Onoma94
Level 61
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That's a risky submission you're doing right here
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 2/20/2022 07:43:41


Kaylleb
Level 56
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Discovery makes 2 substitutions:

Template: Middle Earth 3v3
Players Out: NepCoV1:9 and Henky
Players In: Asurados and The Endless Zero
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 2/28/2022 01:09:04

JustinR17 
Level 59
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Just a reminder to clan contacts that forgot (and aren't on the discord server)

The mid-season registration started a few days ago and will continue until March 6, 2022 (whatever timezone Meld is in). If you have changes, mail Meldarion with them + player links.

https://www.warzone.com/Profile?p=8285645937

The maximum of a roster remains at 27, if you are already at there, but need to add someone, you are allowed to remove people, as long as they have not played a single game. People that have been subbed out and won't play again, but have, are not allowed to be subbed out of the roster.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 3/6/2022 04:40:40

JustinR17 
Level 59
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Last reminder to clan contacts, there is less than a day left to submit roster changes for the midseason registration. Make sure to mail meldarion with any additions/removals along with their player links.

https://www.warzone.com/Profile?p=8285645937

The midseason registration ends 2022-03-07 00:00 CET.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 3/6/2022 14:03:37


Derfellios 
Level 61
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Time for a late first update! It has been ages since Clan League began, but still, few games have finished. Only 34 out of 231 have been decided at the time of writing. Yet, even this small sample tells a lot about the state of certain clans. Let’s take a look at the current scores first:



Clearly, two clans are in the lead: Discovery and French Community . Both suffered two losses and have the same PC%. Only, due to the French’s penalty at the start of the season, Discovery actually has two more wins. Discovery mostly scored against 101st, while French Community had a more spread out pattern of victories.

Blitz is getting close, hunting the two leaders from the third place. The gap of 11 PC% might appear enormous but can be closed with a single game at this stage. Now they have positive head-to-heads against every clan but the two leaders, and if they want to promote, they have to start grabbing more points there.

The Good Gamers and M’Hunters are way behind Blitz, almost 30 PC%. Both picked up one 3v3 and three 1v1s to get an equal amount of points, but GG has one more loss. Promotion will be a long shot, and the relegation battle is never far away. Both have a long history of excellent performances in B, so it is way too early to count them out of the race.

A little behind them, at the feared 6th place, {101st} is ready to catch up and remain in B for the nth time. Not a good start for the eagles, but a lot is still possible, although promoting is difficult at this point.

Meanwhile, CORP is in big problems. Only 1 win in 7 games is not what they had hoped for. Get it together!


Everyone could deduce what I have stated so far from the image. So, time for some in-depth analysis. Despite the low number of finished games, I wanted to understand the current state of affairs better. Is it possible to compute who will promote already? Well, this is quite hard, and polling has not been a good indicator in past Clan Leagues. So, I opted for simulations.

Say, every game is equivalent with a coin flip, a 50/50 chance for both clans to win, and I compute this randomly for every remaining game. Then I get one possible scenario of how Division B will wrap up. If I do this a million times, I have some sensible statistics. Too lazy to worry about tie-breakers, I randomized the order in case clans tied at the end of the season. First, I wanted to assign an ELO rating to every tournament, but there is too little data for that at the moment. 



Strangely, this method reveals that Blitz can actually be considered the runner-up behind Discovery at the moment. Why? Most likely because this method likes the extra points that Blitz has at the moment and that Blitz has had more h2h’s already against the other top 3 clans. Meanwhile, on the bottom, four old-timers fight against relegation.
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 3/15/2022 07:42:37

Mylo 
Level 62
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Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 3/15/2022 20:44:14

Zev 
Level 62
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Clan: FC

Template: DROR
Player out: Legui https://www.warzone.com/Profile?p=9377231212
Player in: Phaeril https://www.warzone.com/Profile?p=7510748853

Subs remaining: 11

Edited 3/15/2022 21:09:43
Clan League 15 Division B Official Thread:: 3/18/2022 12:58:12


linberson 
Level 62
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Everyone could deduce what I have stated so far from the image. So, time for some in-depth analysis. Despite the low number of finished games, I wanted to understand the current state of affairs better. Is it possible to compute who will promote already? Well, this is quite hard, and polling has not been a good indicator in past Clan Leagues. So, I opted for simulations.

Say, every game is equivalent with a coin flip, a 50/50 chance for both clans to win, and I compute this randomly for every remaining game. Then I get one possible scenario of how Division B will wrap up. If I do this a million times, I have some sensible statistics. Too lazy to worry about tie-breakers, I randomized the order in case clans tied at the end of the season. First, I wanted to assign an ELO rating to every tournament, but there is too little data for that at the moment.

Strangely, this method reveals that Blitz can actually be considered the runner-up behind Discovery at the moment. Why? Most likely because this method likes the extra points that Blitz has at the moment and that Blitz has had more h2h’s already against the other top 3 clans. Meanwhile, on the bottom, four old-timers fight against relegation.


Just to understand this better I would like to ask some questions:


  • you take 50% since the numbers dont say much, since they are too small
  • the model should favour total points at this point, right? we see this with Blitz
  • the outcome of the model are probabilities, in the case of discovery (who are leading right now) the answer this model gives is then the following: if they win 50% of the games from now on, then they will have probabilty to promote of ~54% after redoing this fo 1.000.000 times.
  • are there any other models that could be used, and if so why did you chose this way?
  • Is my assumption correct, that with the number of games so small, it wouild make less sense to take the current win % as predictor?
  • how would the 2 clans that stayed in B fare with their win % from last season?


I am a stats noob, and would be delighted to get enlighted.

Cheers

lin
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