I will share some secrets of RaffleBot here. If time permits, I will analyze how RaffleBot gives the prize, and try to answer the question that whether RaffleBot is fair.

Remarks:

* I am a mathematician, not a statistician. I only have very limited knowledge of statistics, and below are only some very basic analysis.

* All the percentages given below are approximations.

* I would like to thank JK_3 for providing the chat history of RaffleBot.

* All data is based on raffles from Apr 13, 2021 to Jul 22, 2021.

* If a user changes the user name, then it may not be reflected correctly here.

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Type of raffles

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There are 3 possible types of raffles.

* Raffle: 95%

* Waffle: 3.5%

* Wafaffle: 1.5%

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Message at the end

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If nobody entered the raffle, the message is

Nobody entered the raffle! These coins will be added to the next one. Be ready for it!

There are 3 possible messages otherwise.

* Stay tuned for the next raffle!: 93%

* Stay tuned for the next waffle!: 3%

* Stay tuned for the next wafaffle!: 2%

* You are all ruthless!: 2%

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Start time of raffles

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The start time in a day follows an uniform distribution.

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Gap between raffles

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The gap between raffles in minutes follows a discrete uniform distribution between 11 minutes and 120 minutes.

* This means that the gap is always in full minutes (plus possibly < 1 second error).

* There was two very special raffles on July 4, 2021, 06:53:24 and 09:23:24. The gap is 150 minutes. This is the only occurrence of raffles that do not follow the distribution above. Was RaffleBot an American busy with celebrating July 4 and forgetting to give us raffles?

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Coin prize of raffles

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If nobody entered the raffle, the coin prize will be added to the next raffle. Let

effective coin prize = coin prize of the current raffle - coin prize saved in previous raffles.

There are two type of effective coin prize:

* Small: 95%

* Big: 5%

The small prize follows a binomial distribution with mean value 5.

* 8 coins: 1.5%

* 7 coins: 12.0%

* 6 coins: 21.5%

* 5 coins: 30.0%

* 4 coins: 21.5%

* 3 coins: 12.0%

* 2 coins: 1.5%

The large prize follows a Poisson distribution with mean value 55.

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Power prize of raffles

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You cannot get a power prize and an artifact prize at the same time.

There are 8 possible power prizes.

* Free Cache: 25%

* None: 15%

* Supercharge Army Camp: 15%

* Supercharge Mine: 15%

* Time Warp: 15%

* Fog Buster: 5%

* Market Raids: 5%

* Inspire Mercenaries: 5%

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Artifact prize of raffles

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You cannot get a power prize and an artifact prize at the same time.

There are 2 possible artifact prizes.

* None: 95%

* Poor artifact: 5%

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Participation rate leaderboard

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Below are the participation rate of users, chopped at 5%, which means roughly 1 raffle per day.

37.5% krinid

35.1% JK_3

34.8% awaythro

33.1% Captain Ab

31.3% faxfox

24.1% Z

22.3% John Smith

21.2% Hodop

18.5% Lefty

18.2% Gunk

16.5% Ocean0.1

15.2% #BanPlajer

14.4% ZombieSlay

13.6% Kcebnroh

13.2% Ursus

12.9% Splat

12.5% stonemende

11.5% Legolas

10.0% Shin

9.3% Mythos1618

9.2% Kratt

9.1% Sevban

8.8% Arrow838™

8.0% nonolet

7.2% KaelF

6.6% riskboy88

6.5% Xxylox

6.5% Leia - Pri

6.2% Thorben

5.5% TrapdoorSp

5.3% GODZILLARE

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Coin leaderboard

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The percentage of coin prized earned are listed here, chopped at 1%. This is correlated to the previous section.

6.46% krinid

5.47% awaythro

5.44% Captain Ab

5.16% JK_3

3.47% Z

3.19% John Smith

3.17% Hodop

3.15% faxfox

3.08% Lefty

3.06% Gunk

2.91% Ursus

2.60% Ocean0.1

2.51% Kcebnroh

2.48% ZombieSlay

1.77% Legolas

1.71% stonemende

1.65% Splat

1.65% #BanPlajer

1.52% Sevban

1.35% Shin

1.33% Kratt

1.28% Arrow838™

1.23% GODZILLARE

1.13% qweds

1.07% IMaq AQ

1.06% Xxylox

1.04% Madkytle

1.04% Leia - Pri

1.01% nonolet

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Luck

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Below are the luck of players who attend at least 5% raffles (roughly 1 raffle per day). A 5% luck means at the player has a 5% more possibility to earn the prize of a random raffle. I would say -5% to 5% is well in the margin of error. So, we can conclude that, so far, no one had abused the RaffleBot, and vice versa.

4.91% Ursus

4.67% Legolas

3.73% Xxylox

2.94% Thorben

2.12% Lefty

1.92% nonolet

1.43% Arrow838™

1.01% Leia - Pri

0.72% riskboy88

0.22% krinid

0.20% Gunk

0.19% Sevban

0.08% Hodop

0.08% awaythro

0.04% Kcebnroh

-0.12% #BanPlajer

-0.47% Ocean0.1

-0.53% stonemende

-0.56% ZombieSlay

-0.62% Z

-0.83% GODZILLARE

-0.99% Kratt

-1.37% Splat

-1.37% Shin

-1.45% Mythos1618

-1.58% John Smith

-1.66% JK_3

-1.75% Captain Ab

-1.98% faxfox

-2.42% TrapdoorSp

-4.74% KaelF

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Winning time

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The percentage of winning by the time remaining is shown in the plot below. The horizontal axis is the time remaining, with -1 means "announced soon" and -2 means nobody entered. The vertical axis is the percentage of wins. This is for the people who believe that correlation implies causation, and I would advise them to join a raffle in the first 10 seconds.

https://imgur.com/a/wigQ5KZ
Edited 7/23/2021 02:25:02