Re: Politics- Discussion of politics is acceptable in threads that are clearly labeled as political (this one is) and have a neutral, non-sensational title. At least per the rules on the wiki.

The idea of the rule seems to be to keep heated political discussions from taking over common spaces where people can't consent to political discussion; for a forum thread like this one, someone entering *can* consent.

So in response to Tungsten: The executive is powerful and does not need a federal trifecta to make a difference. While it's likely that Biden would struggle to make any landmark legislative achievements (his health care plan, his tax plan, his climate plan), he- if elected- would have some solid leeway to change some policies (E.g., fracking on public land, federal law enforcement guidelines) and a good bit of extra leeway from controlling the House, which has power of the purse. We won't see a super-liberal administration- I mean, if Biden wins by so little (rn, 20k votes in Wisconsin), his mandate is paper-thin anyways- but we can expect change.

Let's just annex Belgium. It'll be an epic prank.

Current status: There's 5 states in play. Biden has 254 EVs safe while Trump has 217 EVs safe (they need 270 to win). I am counting AK for Trump because it's 2:1 for him and unlikely that the remaining half of the vote can reverse that... it's also reliably red in general. I am not counting AZ for Biden because mathematically it's very plausible that Trump retakes the state with the remaining red-leaning votes from Maricopa County. We do not have enough data to dismiss that likelihood, and we do won't get such data until tomorrow night.

PA (Trump lead, swinging blue), AZ (Biden lead, swinging red), and GA (Trump lead, swinging blue) are pure tossups right now. With AZ back in play, 269/269 with no faithless electors is actually possible again (if Biden wins GA, Trump wins PA, NC, NV, AZ) but unlikely. NV (Biden lead, likely to swing blue) leans blue, while NC (Trump lead, swinging blue) is likely red.

It's still anyone's election but the path to victory is easier for Biden. To win, Biden needs to win PA or any combination of 2 states in play. In contrast, Trump has to win PA and 3 of the 4 remaining states in play. Biden's got really good shots (better than even, I'd say) of winning in PA and GA, and so far Trump's numbers look to be just on the edge of what he would need to take AZ, so while it's nowhere near safe to call the election for Biden just yet he's definitely playing at an advantage.

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Non-presidential stuff
1. Democrats have an outside chance of taking the Senate. If they can bring Perdue's %age in Georgia to below 50.00 (it'll be close, currently 50.07), then that triggers a runoff in Georgia. So Dems will have 48 seats, GOP 50, and Dems will have to win both runoff seats in Georgia to get a thin Senate majority (50+VP tiebreaker).

2. House is going Dem, but many of the Dems' Blue Wave surprise wins of 2018 are not holding. They are definitely underperforming downballot vs. 2018.

Edited 11/5/2020 07:51:42

if the results stay the same in presidential election biden wins he gets exactly 270 votes

Nice analysis again knyte!

A lot of uncertainty is about the outstanding vote. From what I understand, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona are all slight D advantage at this point because Georgia and Pennsylvania outstanding votes seems to be more blue than required for a flip, while Arizona outstanding votes are expected to not be more red than required for a flip.

I'm currently considering Nevada not less of a toss-up as these other four as it's not that clear if the outstanding vote is truly that blue in Nevada.


Also, I'd be looking forward to an equally detailed analysis of the vote in the next Belgian and European election!

Votes as counted on 2020-11-05 14:07 CET

A good chance that the election gets called for Biden tomorrow, due to GA+NV and/or PA. And as I said last time, AZ is in play- Biden is at 253, not 264. Trump retains an outside chance of winning, but the window's closing.

Some really really good accounts to follow if you want live election updates and play-by-play re-analyses of Biden's and Trump's chances of winning various states in play:

Ryan Matsumoto at Inside Elections - https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/with_replies

Daniel Nichanian at The Appeal - https://twitter.com/taniel/with_replies

Tonight there's about 14-15k votes remaining in GA (plus an unknown number of military, overseas, provisional, and 'cured' ballots [rejected ones that get fixed and counted, so like if someone's signature is off]). The only county actively updating is Clayton County, which is left-leaning and should be enough to flip the 1.9k vote lead that Trump has.

The remaining counties in Georgia for tomorrow are one big left-leaning county and a couple of smaller right-leaning counties. If Biden is up tonight, tomorrow he'll likely just run up the score and secure Georgia.

In Pennsylvania Biden is down about 24k with a lot of votes left in not only mail-ins but urban neighborhoods that he's doing well in. Philadelphia is slowed down (due to a Trump lawsuit LMAO) and so is stuck at 91%. There's a good chance PA flips tonight or tomorrow and once it's done Biden just runs up the score in Philly. Mail-ins are overwhelmingly favorable to Biden (as you would expect, since he has a deficit of like 1.3M in in-person votes).

Meanwhile in Arizona, there's some noise but Trump is currently slightly underperforming the margins he needs to retake that state. He might do better or worse in future ballots, but so far there's some good breathing room for Biden.

There's 3 states really in play. NV's remaining votes are likely solid blue- Las Vegas may have a gambling problem but even they're not going to take the risk of a second Trump term. 3/4 of the votes seem to be in Clark County (Las Vegas) with the remainder in other counties (middle of nowhere); Clark is 2:1 Biden so far while the rest is 2:1 Trump. So looks like overall strong blue showing.

Of the 3- PA, GA, AZ- Biden only needs one.

Great map for Biden, great odds of flipping PA or GA, great chance we're in the endgame now.

Also, to add some stakes:
I am confident that Biden will win Georgia. In fact, I am so confident that, if he doesn't, I will post my honest review of Warzone Idle on the forums and risk the permaban for saying bad things about it.

Edited 11/6/2020 05:47:11

wait you lie about warzone idle?

people like idle?

Someone really thought this was gonna happen lmao

Edited 11/7/2020 00:36:35

I predict that that Trump will win after a three month court battle.

"Software used to tabulate votes cast in 47 Michigan counties erroneously gave 6,000 votes to Joe Biden in Anterim County, according to state GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox.

"In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000 vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said 'tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote.' Since then, we have now discovered the 47 counties used the same software in the same capacity," she said, adding "Antrim County had to hand count all of the ballots, and these counties that used the software need to closely examine their results for similar discrepancies."

"Of note, Trump won Antrim County in 2016 with 62% of the vote vs. 33% for Hillary Clinton."

I predict that that Trump will win after a three month court battle.

Unlikely, his cases have so far been thrown (read: laughed) out of court. The only one that seems to have succeeded so far was in Philly, which led to a two-hour delay over whether the vote counters should stand 10 feet apart or 6 feet apart and affected exactly zero votes. There's actually been some hilarious exchanges from these cases, demonstrating just how little merit the arguments have:

My Google-fu is failing me, but this is a paraphrase of the transcript (from memory) over the bid to halt the count in Philadelphia (Trump campaign was alleging that observers were not being allowed when there were, in fact, official Trump observers in the room at the time):

Judge Diamond: Are there people in that room?

Trump lawyer: Yes.

Judge Diamond: Are there observers from the Trump campaign in that room in an official capacity?

Trump lawyer: Yes

Judge Diamond: I don't get it. What is your problem exactly?

<order denied>

If someone can find the official transcript, would be much appreciated!

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Since you didn't bother to actually cite your quotes, here is a link from local media providing context: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/antrim-county-vote-glitch-software-update/6194745002/

Because most counties in the state — especially smaller ones — use the Dominion Voting Systems equipment that Antrim County does, concerns were raised this week about whether other county results could have been posted with errors.

But that's not the case, according to the Department of State, which stressed in the news release that the votes were correctly tabulated and the printed tapes showing the results were also accurate in Antrim.

"In order to report unofficial results, county clerks use election management system software to combine the electronic totals from tabulators and submit a report of unofficial results," the release said. "Because the clerk did not update software, even though the tabulators counted all the ballots correctly, those accurate results were not combined properly when the clerk reported unofficial results."

How exactly does this software glitch make the case that Trump would be able to recover (at this point) 53 EVs in court? Are you trying to confuse people into believing baseless allegations of widespread fraud with a news story about an already-fixed software glitch that did not change ballot tabulation and had no impact on the official count?

Edited 11/7/2020 05:22:59

Sooooo, is this it?

The harry potter fans are the ones who vote for bernie, what are you on about knyte. Meanwhile, I, the tolkein fan, voted for kanye

(scroll for the full story if your screen isn't big enough)

By the way, the Fake News media at Bloomberg has made a Trump lawsuit tracker (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-05/trump-election-lawsuits-filed-state-by-state) so you can follow along live as each case gets bounced out of court.

Edited 11/9/2020 07:18:50

I found a prediction someone made.
I call it: "America on the way to autocracy."
How likely is it?

1. Numerous lawsuits for fake fraud allegations that drag on into December, parallel to Trump rallies.
2. Millions of Trump voters are incited and put pressure on the Republican legislatures of the Blue Wall to determine the electorate regardless of the outcome of the election. There is and is provided by the constitution (even if it has been confused with various SCOTUS judgments in both directions)
3. The legislatures comply with this request and set up republican electors.
4. The governor opposes this and sets up democratic electors
5. It goes in front of the SCOTUS.

From here on unpredictable

6. Assuming the SCOTUS decides for Trump, there will be riots
7. Trump puts this down on the basis of the Insurrection Act.

this could start a civil war tho kretoma

Fun fact: the normal people lost the election (time for a civil war!)