C, taking Georgia is was we have prepared to do last turns, so lets complete that

I vote for A.

I dislike assuming Rufus has Middle East with 100% certainty. If we fail Scandinavia (36% chance) and he is not in ME, we auto-lose the game. If he is in ME, what says he'll show up this turn? Maybe he takes the fight to SA. I'd prefer to take the fight to Central America, as we're 100% sure he's there.

C

its possible rufus didnt go for central america and already blockades in south america so that would make a stack in south america very useless for the next couple of turns

I believe that we should not take Georgia this turn.
The scenarios:

In one case he doesn't have ME, ok fine, in that case, Georgia is a wasted move anyways, right?

But now let's assume he has ME, why would he move to Georgia this turn? He could only do so if he went for the strategy of taking Central America in turn 3 from the beginning while at the same time moving ME consequently towards Georgia. This ignores tho, that he probably does neither know about our exact picks in Russia nor that he has to be prepared for us eventually trying to take South America in 2 turns. (we almost did that!) Both those things prevent him from playing in a way that would allow him to take Georgia now.
Then there is also the option that he takes Georgia without bothering to take any more income before showing up there. He would go into his counter with a 9 vs 12 disadvantage, why would he do that? And on top, this would mean anyways that our attack of 4 or 6 armies into Georgia doesn't succeed, so no need to even try it.

To conclude, I would honestly even say that moving to Georgia in this turn is just an objective bad move, no matter of predictions.

I agree with Farah's reasoning and vote for A. I would even vote for D maybe if the leftovers would be a bit better than what we have.

I agree with AI. True words, true words....
If there's one thing I would change though, it's nothing, because his analysis is flawless

Let's consider Rufus' options at 3rd pick.

1) He has ME. In this case CA + EA matches Scan + CR income for income. Beating Rufus to Georgia or counter taking him does a lot. It protects our WR double border and threatens ME. If Rufus is ME, all we need to do to win this game is take Iran and not play catastrophically bad. Taking Georgia is both proactively defensive and gets us closer to that goal.

2) He has EC. In this scenario he likely countered SA already and is working on EC (I don't think he can take it this turn in most scenarios but will leave that to the WR wizards). Taking Georgia here isn't ideal, but we can still use the armies for card piece and working on caucasus.

3) He has something else like ER, WC or Eur. We probably just lose in any of these scenarios, but I don't see how our other options are all that better.

D

I'm very sure that the thought process of AI is wrong. I have already pointed out how super bad we are assuming Rufus to play here (all assuming it's Central America + East Africa + Middle East):
- Turn 2 Rufus takes East Africa (9 income)
- Turn 2 (or maybe also turn 3) Rufus smashes into South America (which he can do with a 4v2 attack at best if turn 2). (9 income)
- Turn 3 Rufus takes absolutely no bonus. (9 income)
- Turn 4 Rufus can then take Central America (12 income)
- Turn 5 Rufus surrenders because we have 12 income since turn 3 and am breaking him easily in Central America.

Playing like that Rufus would have issues beating Blowfly. Blowfly takes his big bonuses.

Bad / careless play IMO would be to take Mexico in turn 2 from Rufus' side. I just do not see why he should have done that. I also do not see how being at an 9 vs 12 disadvantage for one turn while going for position in the meantime is game losing. Mybe I am missing something, why exactly Rufus shows up in Georgia this turn.

@AI: After turn 3 we could not only have 12 income but could also be bordering Central America already. In fact this kind of play would be the most obvious choice from us IMO if we weren't so "paranoid" about a Russia counter. So if Rufus would play like that he would risk not getting Central America at all. He would just be stuck with his 9 income for probably the end of the game. He also can't take Middle East and especially not while getting slapped around in Central America.

Edited 8/6/2020 17:52:27

if Rufus is in ME you want to use that prediction to get as much out of it as possible.

if we prematurely show up to block the counter we lose some of our advantage. the ideal is to smash georgia on the turn he moves in and block it (although that could be a 50:50 if he moves in with a stack too). So, it's worth thinking through when he would likely show up - which is going to be when he has a good stack of armies/ has decent income relative to us.

I have an impression that the longer you try to analyse this, you risk over thinking it. I'm talking generally, not to a specific person.

Doubting, second guessing etc may do more harm than good in my humble opinion.

I'm not sure about D finally... flipping vote to A

At this point might aswell wait in SA for Rufus to find us. I vote C without moving SA

suggestion: either link the distribution thread or even better add the screen in the turns. a hassle to go back to check :P

Edited 8/6/2020 19:46:32

"if Rufus is in ME you want to use that prediction to get as much out of it as possible.

if we prematurely show up to block the counter we lose some of our advantage. the ideal is to smash georgia on the turn he moves in and block it (although that could be a 50:50 if he moves in with a stack too). So, it's worth thinking through when he would likely show up - which is going to be when he has a good stack of armies/ has decent income relative to us."

Much better to show up prematurely than to let Rufus gain Georgia. If Rufus gains Georgia we're in a world of hurt. If we show up prematurely we still have a pretty strong advantage. The danger in hitting Georgia strong is that Rufus started not in ME. If he started in ME and isn't going for Georgia its still a win as taking Iran basically seals the game in our favor. If he started not in ME then we're in trouble, but my analysis is that if he starts in not ME we're in trouble anyways.

Edited 8/6/2020 19:54:14

C
We went this far with the ME assumption, we might as well keep going

Smash.

The world voted for Option C!

Here's what happened:

We took Norway with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Finland with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Brazil with a 3v2, getting perfect leftovers
We took Georgia with a 6v2, getting perfect leftovers
We did not see Rufus in either South America or Middle East
The World is a lucky bunch.



Expect a new thread soon!

Hm, I was wrong about pushing the Middle East option. I really don't like having so little clue what Rufus picked now. Could he not be in East Africa at all but instead have some bizarre China doublepick?

I still find it pretty obvious to not see Rufus in South America. The math showed that if Rufus would attack us there he wouldn't be able to achieve any competitive income. This was true not only for Rufus in Middle East but for every other plausible option.

My random guess is that Rufus picked Central America + East Africa + East China. What I'm sure about is that he will complete his third bonus this turn and will have enough income to attack us in South America now.

Edited 8/8/2020 11:33:17

We were also debating him having Caucasus and sitting there. It's the rufus kind thing to do