
Math Wolf
Level 64
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Of note, unless you are living in China or Northern Italy: if you have symptoms, you are still more likely to have flu than Covid-19 for now, but this balance will likely tilt in the next weeks. But guess what: the same protective measures (washing hands, keeping distance, staying home) also reduce the spread of the flu so this is good advice anyway.
Again: there is still a wide variation in which direction this can and will go, and most non-verified sources are clickbait and/or guessing. Not even the best experts (some of which happen to be my colleagues) know how this will play out in the long run.
Interestingly, currently it looks like this will be more of a logistic challenge than a medical challenge.
The medical challenge is what researchers are looking at. Not much is known about the virus yet, but some key results include that (1) it's very contagious due to potential spreading while asymptomatic or mild symptoms, (2) more deadly than the flu but unknown whether this is due to viral properties or mainly the lack of resistance, (3) deaths are strongly like to pre-existing conditions with some surprising results (e.g. diabetes, coronairy diseases (heart and related) increase risk, reduced immune system (e.g. from HIV) seemingly does not increase risk) and some obvious results (elderly, people with lung problems are the major groups at risk). (4) Death is often due to a severe (viral) pneumonia. Remember that pneumonia itself kills 4 million a year (mainly among children and elderly and in LMIC), so this is nothing to sneeze at (pun intended, forgive the dark humor). (5) Spread and infectiousness is likely linked to geographical factors (mainly temperature and humidity) as it is with most viruses. So the idea that the situation will improve as temperatures rise, is not a myth. However, improving does not mean eradicating (you can get flu in summer, but less people get it), and it also implies it will likely return when autumn starts.
Now for the logistic challenge: (1) There are several types of face masks with some give total protection and others not. While it is somewhat useful to wear a facemask that gives total protection yourself, you should always remember that there is currently a shortage of them. If you wear them as a young, healthy person, you are effectively taking them away from health care workers and risk groups who need them and have difficulty acquiring them. It's a selfish move that in the long run helps the spread and fatality rate of the disease and hence may not only put you and your family at an elevated risk in the long run, you may actively cause harm with others. People hoarding these masks should take a long hard look in the mirror and realise what kind of person they are. (2) The main logistic problems next to the shortage of face masks (which is indeed a failure of the health care system), is simply the capacity of the health care system. Two important numbers to keep an eye on are (a) the number of active health care workers (a health care worker with corona reduces the capacity!) and (b) the number of ICU beds (number of places at any given moment on intensive care, or more specifically in this case: the number of patients that can get artificial respiration) The system can only work if health care workers (doctors, nurses, ...) remain healthy, the lack of face masks is consequently a major issue! I heard from colleagues that in China up to 10% of health care workers are/were ill themselves which is a heavy burden on the system. Additionally, the total number of coronacases doesn't matter as much as the peak number. If cases can be spread out over more time, the number of ICU beds should be enough and the system can treat everyone optimally, reducing fatality rates. However, a strong peak like Northern Italy experienced effectively overloads the system and has people requiring artificial respiration waiting in the corridor. This is why you should try to use common sense and protective measures. Chances are you still get it, but at least with some delay allowing the health care system to take better care of everyone and hence save more lifes that would otherwise be lost.
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