Predictions based on 86 respondents:

                   1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
CORP            32.6 43.0  9.3  9.3  3.5  2.3 2.15 1.21
7th Heaven      52.3 20.9  3.5  8.1  7.0  8.1 2.21 1.67
LuFredd          2.3 11.6 27.9 23.3 20.9 14.0 3.91 1.32
German Warlords  5.8  8.1 25.6 19.8 22.1 18.6 4.00 1.45
Dutch [NL]       4.7 12.8 15.1 17.4 23.3 26.7 4.22 1.54
Preussen Garde   3.5  4.7 18.6 22.1 22.1 29.1 4.42 1.38

The top two is pretty obvious as in that it's clear that there's no one clear number one. (Reread that sentence twice please.) The difference for first between CORP and 7th Heaven is not significant and their means are pretty close to one another. CORP edges out 7th Heaven barely in the predictions because they zone in on the top spots with more than 75% predicted qualification for group C and most others putting them still relatively close (3rd and 4th). In a group with very high variation all over the place, they are the ones with the most consensus.

It's a mystery to me how 7 respondents put 7th Heaven last and 23 (!), more than a quarter outside the qualification spots for C. These are possibly uninformed voters who do not know who really plays for this clan. Nevertheless, more than half of the respondents did predict them first, more than CORP, but it's just not enough to edge out CORP in these predictions. Due to the high number of respondents ranking 7th Heaven towards and the rest putting them first, their variation is the largest over all clans over all divisions.

From third to sixth, it's another block of clans, with all pairwise differences not significant. The p-value associated with the LuFredd - Preussen Garde (3-6) comparison was 18%, delivering no proof that the Warlight community sees any of these clans as having a significantly different skill level of any other. While their votes are not all alike, they are very similar as well though. LuFredd receives double digit predictions at each rank from 2nd to 6th and isn't predicted more than 30% in any single rank, the latter part also being true for each of the other 3 clans in this range. They edge out the others mainly by virtue of receiving the least last place votes of the 4 clans. They also received the lowest first place votes overall, but the absolute numbers there are much smaller (2 votes for them).

German Warlords received the third most first place votes in this division (5), but it's not good enough to really make a difference with any of the other clans, especially considering they only have the 5th most respondents predicting them going to C. Just as LuFredd, they have less than 30% of the vote on each rank, but they have almost 20% on each rank from 3th to 6th, making it obvious that they are difficult to predict.

Dutch [NL] has the third most predictions to actually get to C, with 17.5%. This is however compensated by half of the respondents ranking them 5th or 6th. As mentioned, there is no significant difference between them and any of the other 3-6 clans. Also, they are Dutch, meaning their dialect is significantly worst than mine. ;-) Just kidding, guys, but please don't visit my city for shopping this weekend, I'm sick and tired of hearing that language!

Preussen Garde may not be significantly worse than any of the 3 other clans ranking 3rd-6th, there isn't much hope either. They have the lowest percentage of respondents believing in them getting to C (only one with less than 10%) and the most last place votes. Still, the differences are small and it's about a handfull of votes every time (with less than 30% votes on every rank, like the others), so anything can happen really.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.

Yo, Mathwolf doing work. Thanks for giving us the 411. There's good players all around in this clan league. Look forward to competing with ya'll.

Division Q2 - Week 2

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Finished Games

(losing team on the left side)

2017.02.12
12868647 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)
12862272 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.13
12856032 1v1 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani) vs CORP (Tjoex)
12862273 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs Dutch Forever (Hendrik)

2017.02.14
12849652 2v2 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien) vs LuFredd (max+kalati)
12874079 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd (MrJimmy) vs CORP (mm3100)
12899639 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.15
12856033 1v1 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (Double D.) vs German Warlords (m7)

2017.02.16
12856034 1v1 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (Double D.) vs Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12874084 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) vs 7th Heaven (Bahamut)
12899640 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs 7th Heaven (Bahamut)
12905911 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) vs 7th Heaven (Cait Sith)

2017.02.17
12902787 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Preußen Garde (Naglfar)

2017.02.18
12868642 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) vs Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)
12917947 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)

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Horse Race

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Commentary

Games finish quickly, especially ME ones - seems it has a lot of quick players on it. Mm3100 from CORP (playing on ME) is the first player to finish all his games on any single template in this division (however a lot of players finished all but 1). His three wins (with only one loss), and Tjoex's Guiroma win bring lots of points to CORP.
7th Heaven still has yet to lose a game, this week seen Bahamut (aka Belzebu) bringing 2 wins on ME and Cait Sith (aka Rambo) bringing one on Guiroma, all in one day.
Dutch Forever has a less-than-good week with Guiroma team finishing first game with a loss, Hendrik losing 3 games on ME (but also winning one against German Warlords) and Lucky Light losing two on VI (but winning one as well) so far. Their max points burn too quickly, and not always against the "top2" clans of the division, let's hope they'll be able to reverse course.
Almost as bad is German Warlords, which lost "only" three games and won one. Ulti losing even against Hendrik (otherwise on losing streak) looks really bad for them.
Meanwhile Preußen has even week with 2 wins and 2 losses, from 3 different templates. Overally their results look stable. Same thing could be said about Lu Fredd, with 1 win on 2v2 Guiroma, 1 on ME, 1 on VI and 2 losses on 1v1 Guiroma. Notice how those results are a bit more varied, than NL's (mostly just losses), CORP's (mostly wins from 1 player) and 7th's (all wins). Some wins, some losses, and on almost all templates.

No 3v3's finished yet - and they always bring a lot of unexpected changes to final results (remember Lu Fredd's domination in CL7D1?). Since they started first, maybe we'll see some ending soon.

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Statistics

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Edited 2/19/2017 12:49:02

That is a lot of games completed in one week :O

2012.02.12
12868647 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)
12862272 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.13
12856032 1v1 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani) vs CORP (Tjoex)
12862273 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs Dutch Forever (Hendrik)

I'm more surprised that there's a 5 year gap between some games!

I'm more surprised that there's a 5 year gap between some games!

Don't fake quotes please. >:]

Na LuFredd got 2 times booted in 1vs1 :(.We substituted the player and we still got the second place so i really hope we will be fine.

Don't fake quotes please. >:]

Don't make me believe I've had the Mandela effect. I know what I saw before the edit and your cover up! :P

(there was a Q2 update; wait, I mixed up something; will paste it tomorrow)

Edited 2/26/2017 03:42:43

Division Q2 - Week 3

Finished Games

2017.02.18
12868644 1v1 Volcano Island: Preußen Garde (Naglfar) defeated 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife)

2017.02.19
12849654 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien)
12940421 1v1 Volcano Island: Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller) defeated German Warlords (Janine)

2017.02.21
12869157 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)

2017.02.22
12849653 2v2 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (max+kalati) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)
12905913 1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)

2017.02.23
12927775 1v1 Guiroma: German Warlords (m7) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12856027 1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated CORP (Tjoex)

2017.02.25
12843233 3v3 Deadman's Rome: 7th Heaven (Jenova+Zack Fair+Red XIII) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

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Commentary

7th Heaven finally took a hit! This happened on the slow Volcano Island tournament. This might be a fluke, or it might be a template where Preußen Garde will really bite - and they will need these points badly.

First game on the 3v3 template has finished and this is, as seen above, 7th Heaven's victory over Prussian Guard.

CORP's start to be really slow... this week only had an upset on 1v1 Guiroma and now it's a clan with second least amount of points. I really hope we'll see more wins soon. It's the only clan that didn't finish a game on 1v1 Volcano Island, but maybe slowness is caution.

Dutch has a week with two wins from 1v1 Guiroma (including one against CORP!) and "only" one loss on 2v2 Guiroma, so it's not a horrible week for them.

Preußen Garde also has a two wins on one template, which is Volcano Island, but also catches three losses from one player.

German Warlords generally keep losing (except on 1v1 Guiroma), while Lu Fredd finishes only two games, both being wins against the Germans.

Overally - we saw two upsets here, but the general tendencies are continuing there. German Warlords do poorly, 7th Heaven does too well. Lu Fredd manages to not lose too much yet (we'll see how long), [NL] is behind on max points, and CORP and Preußen are just middling.

Edited 2/26/2017 15:44:13

Just curious, what do you mean by we're doing "too well?" :)

Just winning everything. :P

Edited 2/27/2017 01:35:23

Cmon CORP! Stop being booted and win what you got left!

Division Q2 - Week 4

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Finished Games

26.02.2017
12977265 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated German Warlords (m7)

27.02.2017
12843231 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Bear+orionaux) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)
12942442 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

28.02.2017
12843238 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese) defeated Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
12948269 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) defeated Preußen Garde (Naglfar)

01.03.2017
12931944 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)

02.03.2017
12868643 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeated 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife)

03.03.2017
12968947 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12927777 1v1 Old Strat ME: CORP (mm3100) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)
12862277 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd (MrJimmy) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)

04.03.2017
12921281 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)
12946138 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)
12963927 2v2 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi) defeated Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien)

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Commentary

7th Heaven
Notes three wins, but also one loss. Yet another loss on 1v1 Volcano Island, but also finally manages to win a game on this template. Still far above the reach of their opponents: Sits at (3-0) on 2v2 Guiroma, (4-0) on 1v1 Old Strat ME (last game against Lu Fredd), finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (5-0) result.

CORP
Wins their first games on 3v3 ROR and 1v1 Volcano Island. Finishes 1v1 Old Strat ME with a good (4-1) and 1v1 Guiroma with a decent (3-2). No news from 2v2 Guiroma, where we wait for Ven to come back. I feel I won't be objective enough talking more about CORP's results, so I'll leave it at that.

Dutch Forever
Another bad week, with 3 losses and no wins. This includes one 3v3, one 2v2 and one 1v1 (Volcano Island). Clan's just one game away from finishing 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 Old Strat ME each, being at (3-1) and (1-3) in them, respectively. They have yet to win a team game((0-3) on 2v2 Guiroma, having matches remaining against CORP and German Warlords), and we all know how precious team formats are.

German Warlords
Now they are only 2 points away to be mathematically eliminated from contest for 1st place. Another bad week, losing a 3v3, two 1v1s and winning only one 1v1. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (2-3) result, which is the most wins they have on a single template. They are also first to finish two games on 3v3 Rome, unfortunately both are losses. (0-4) 1v1 Old Strat ME doesn't look likely to turn into (1-4), and (1-2) on Volcano Island is stil before playing both CORP and 7th Heaven.

Lu Fredd
Another good week, with four wins and one loss. Overally they do really well so far and are still vying for the 2nd place, and that might be decided by 3v3 games - which _will_ finish last and they are worth most.
Unfortunately they are (0-4) on Guiroma (remaining game against Dutch (the only template this clan does well at), and on all but one template they have a game remaining against 7th Heaven, although the current (3-1) on Old Strat ME and (3-0) on Volcano Island look very solid.

Preußen Garde
3rd of march is a black day for Preußen Garde - they finish three games and all three are losses. Abysmal week for them, winning 1 game and losing 4, which decisively puts them behind top three clans of the division. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (1-4) result.

Looking at the graph, there is a big dropoff between the three: 7th Heaven, CORP, Lu Fredd and another three: Preußen Garde, Dutch Forever, German Warlords (all the worst nationalists, one would say). Actually 7th Heaven is very much ahead of the other two as well.

1v1 Guiroma will likely be the first format to finish, as it's only two games away from completion. Next up is 1v1 Old Strat ME as it has all games already created.

Edited 3/9/2017 16:28:37

hey you have wrong LuFredd player in guiroma template :) first four games (those that are finished) were played by moffel38, after he got booted from his first two games we replaced him with Double D. but sadly Double D. got only the last game in guiroma, so the games finished last week were still played by moffel38

Thanks, fixed that.

also i think you're right in that the 2nd place will likely be decided in 3v3s, actually it's possible that LuFredd vs. CORP 3v3 might be the deciding game (well if we can keep up because as you said we have propably bit harder games than CORP left so it's possible that you can secure then 2nd position without that win too) as it gives the winner 5 points while lowering losers max points by 5

Division Q2 - Week 5

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Finished games

2016.03.05

12843235 3v3 Deadman's Rome: 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeated CORP (Baer+The Shots+orionaux)

2016.03.06

13034654 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

2016.03.08

12843236 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde (Nina+Naram-Sin+cnxer) defeated Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese)

2016.03.10

13014467 1v1 Old Strat ME: 7th Heaven (Bahamut) defeated Lu Fredd (MrJimmy)
13028038 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated German Warlords (Janine)

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Commentary

Not a whole lot of games have finished this week - 1v1s are almost wrapped up and now mostly the usually slower team games have left.

7th Heaven maintains their insane winrate and wins 11 points from 3 finished games. Preußen has a nice week, upsetting Lu Fredd on DRoR and collecting a win on ME. Now it looks like that Preußen can fight for 3rd place in the division, as their max points still easily allow them to. Lu Fredd starts to take hits, although I already mentioned the worse of them. German Warlords continue to be everyone's punching bag, and Dutch don't finish any game this week. They seem locked on their current positions.

If I'm not mistaken, we are the first clan in all Q groups to secure a place in C. We are currently sitting at 62 points,while maximum points for Lu Fredd and CORP are 67 and 68 respectively. However, those 2 clans have yet to finish 3v3,2v2 and 1v1 game between them - which ammounts to total of 12 points. There is no theoretical variation of those results where both clans finish above 7th Heaven.

Congrats 7th Heaven!! You rock! :)


You were my favorites to win the whole division C anyways ;).

Edited 3/12/2017 22:46:55