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Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/13/2017 01:08:51


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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Predictions based on 86 respondents:

                   1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
CORP            32.6 43.0  9.3  9.3  3.5  2.3 2.15 1.21
7th Heaven      52.3 20.9  3.5  8.1  7.0  8.1 2.21 1.67
LuFredd          2.3 11.6 27.9 23.3 20.9 14.0 3.91 1.32
German Warlords  5.8  8.1 25.6 19.8 22.1 18.6 4.00 1.45
Dutch [NL]       4.7 12.8 15.1 17.4 23.3 26.7 4.22 1.54
Preussen Garde   3.5  4.7 18.6 22.1 22.1 29.1 4.42 1.38

The top two is pretty obvious as in that it's clear that there's no one clear number one. (Reread that sentence twice please.) The difference for first between CORP and 7th Heaven is not significant and their means are pretty close to one another. CORP edges out 7th Heaven barely in the predictions because they zone in on the top spots with more than 75% predicted qualification for group C and most others putting them still relatively close (3rd and 4th). In a group with very high variation all over the place, they are the ones with the most consensus.

It's a mystery to me how 7 respondents put 7th Heaven last and 23 (!), more than a quarter outside the qualification spots for C. These are possibly uninformed voters who do not know who really plays for this clan. Nevertheless, more than half of the respondents did predict them first, more than CORP, but it's just not enough to edge out CORP in these predictions. Due to the high number of respondents ranking 7th Heaven towards and the rest putting them first, their variation is the largest over all clans over all divisions.

From third to sixth, it's another block of clans, with all pairwise differences not significant. The p-value associated with the LuFredd - Preussen Garde (3-6) comparison was 18%, delivering no proof that the Warlight community sees any of these clans as having a significantly different skill level of any other. While their votes are not all alike, they are very similar as well though. LuFredd receives double digit predictions at each rank from 2nd to 6th and isn't predicted more than 30% in any single rank, the latter part also being true for each of the other 3 clans in this range. They edge out the others mainly by virtue of receiving the least last place votes of the 4 clans. They also received the lowest first place votes overall, but the absolute numbers there are much smaller (2 votes for them).

German Warlords received the third most first place votes in this division (5), but it's not good enough to really make a difference with any of the other clans, especially considering they only have the 5th most respondents predicting them going to C. Just as LuFredd, they have less than 30% of the vote on each rank, but they have almost 20% on each rank from 3th to 6th, making it obvious that they are difficult to predict.

Dutch [NL] has the third most predictions to actually get to C, with 17.5%. This is however compensated by half of the respondents ranking them 5th or 6th. As mentioned, there is no significant difference between them and any of the other 3-6 clans. Also, they are Dutch, meaning their dialect is significantly worst than mine. ;-) Just kidding, guys, but please don't visit my city for shopping this weekend, I'm sick and tired of hearing that language!

Preussen Garde may not be significantly worse than any of the 3 other clans ranking 3rd-6th, there isn't much hope either. They have the lowest percentage of respondents believing in them getting to C (only one with less than 10%) and the most last place votes. Still, the differences are small and it's about a handfull of votes every time (with less than 30% votes on every rank, like the others), so anything can happen really.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/13/2017 04:34:40


Zack Fair
Level 58
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Yo, Mathwolf doing work. Thanks for giving us the 411. There's good players all around in this clan league. Look forward to competing with ya'll.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/19/2017 02:49:32


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 2



Finished Games

(losing team on the left side)

2017.02.12
12868647 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)
12862272 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.13
12856032 1v1 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani) vs CORP (Tjoex)
12862273 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs Dutch Forever (Hendrik)

2017.02.14
12849652 2v2 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien) vs LuFredd (max+kalati)
12874079 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd (MrJimmy) vs CORP (mm3100)
12899639 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.15
12856033 1v1 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (Double D.) vs German Warlords (m7)

2017.02.16
12856034 1v1 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (Double D.) vs Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12874084 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) vs 7th Heaven (Bahamut)
12899640 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs 7th Heaven (Bahamut)
12905911 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) vs 7th Heaven (Cait Sith)

2017.02.17
12902787 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Preußen Garde (Naglfar)

2017.02.18
12868642 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) vs Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)
12917947 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)



Horse Race





Commentary

Games finish quickly, especially ME ones - seems it has a lot of quick players on it. Mm3100 from CORP (playing on ME) is the first player to finish all his games on any single template in this division (however a lot of players finished all but 1). His three wins (with only one loss), and Tjoex's Guiroma win bring lots of points to CORP.
7th Heaven still has yet to lose a game, this week seen Bahamut (aka Belzebu) bringing 2 wins on ME and Cait Sith (aka Rambo) bringing one on Guiroma, all in one day.
Dutch Forever has a less-than-good week with Guiroma team finishing first game with a loss, Hendrik losing 3 games on ME (but also winning one against German Warlords) and Lucky Light losing two on VI (but winning one as well) so far. Their max points burn too quickly, and not always against the "top2" clans of the division, let's hope they'll be able to reverse course.
Almost as bad is German Warlords, which lost "only" three games and won one. Ulti losing even against Hendrik (otherwise on losing streak) looks really bad for them.
Meanwhile Preußen has even week with 2 wins and 2 losses, from 3 different templates. Overally their results look stable. Same thing could be said about Lu Fredd, with 1 win on 2v2 Guiroma, 1 on ME, 1 on VI and 2 losses on 1v1 Guiroma. Notice how those results are a bit more varied, than NL's (mostly just losses), CORP's (mostly wins from 1 player) and 7th's (all wins). Some wins, some losses, and on almost all templates.

No 3v3's finished yet - and they always bring a lot of unexpected changes to final results (remember Lu Fredd's domination in CL7D1?). Since they started first, maybe we'll see some ending soon.




Statistics






Edited 2/19/2017 12:49:02
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/19/2017 02:59:21


Deadman 
Level 64
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That is a lot of games completed in one week :O
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/19/2017 07:15:38

Ryzys
Level 58
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2012.02.12
12868647 1v1 Volcano Island: Dutch Forever (Lucky Light) vs Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller)
12862272 1v1 Old Strat ME: Dutch Forever (Hendrik) vs CORP (mm3100)

2017.02.13
12856032 1v1 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani) vs CORP (Tjoex)
12862273 1v1 Old Strat ME: German Warlords (Ulti) vs Dutch Forever (Hendrik)
I'm more surprised that there's a 5 year gap between some games!
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/19/2017 12:51:04


Onoma94
Level 61
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I'm more surprised that there's a 5 year gap between some games!

Don't fake quotes please. >:]
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/20/2017 17:44:12


Nobody
Level 60
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Na LuFredd got 2 times booted in 1vs1 :(.We substituted the player and we still got the second place so i really hope we will be fine.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/21/2017 04:58:35

Ryzys
Level 58
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Don't fake quotes please. >:]
Don't make me believe I've had the Mandela effect. I know what I saw before the edit and your cover up! :P
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/26/2017 03:38:24


Onoma94
Level 61
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(there was a Q2 update; wait, I mixed up something; will paste it tomorrow)

Edited 2/26/2017 03:42:43
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/26/2017 15:43:39


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 3

Finished Games

2017.02.18
12868644 1v1 Volcano Island: Preußen Garde (Naglfar) defeated 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife)

2017.02.19
12849654 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien)
12940421 1v1 Volcano Island: Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller) defeated German Warlords (Janine)

2017.02.21
12869157 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)

2017.02.22
12849653 2v2 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (max+kalati) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)
12905913 1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)

2017.02.23
12927775 1v1 Guiroma: German Warlords (m7) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12856027 1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated CORP (Tjoex)

2017.02.25
12843233 3v3 Deadman's Rome: 7th Heaven (Jenova+Zack Fair+Red XIII) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)














Commentary

7th Heaven finally took a hit! This happened on the slow Volcano Island tournament. This might be a fluke, or it might be a template where Preußen Garde will really bite - and they will need these points badly.

First game on the 3v3 template has finished and this is, as seen above, 7th Heaven's victory over Prussian Guard.

CORP's start to be really slow... this week only had an upset on 1v1 Guiroma and now it's a clan with second least amount of points. I really hope we'll see more wins soon. It's the only clan that didn't finish a game on 1v1 Volcano Island, but maybe slowness is caution.

Dutch has a week with two wins from 1v1 Guiroma (including one against CORP!) and "only" one loss on 2v2 Guiroma, so it's not a horrible week for them.

Preußen Garde also has a two wins on one template, which is Volcano Island, but also catches three losses from one player.

German Warlords generally keep losing (except on 1v1 Guiroma), while Lu Fredd finishes only two games, both being wins against the Germans.

Overally - we saw two upsets here, but the general tendencies are continuing there. German Warlords do poorly, 7th Heaven does too well. Lu Fredd manages to not lose too much yet (we'll see how long), [NL] is behind on max points, and CORP and Preußen are just middling.

Edited 2/26/2017 15:44:13
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/27/2017 01:28:08

Cid Highwind
Level 57
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Just curious, what do you mean by we're doing "too well?" :)
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 2/27/2017 01:29:59


Onoma94
Level 61
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Just winning everything. :P

Edited 2/27/2017 01:35:23
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/4/2017 20:57:55


LeQuébécois_Benoit
Level 63
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Cmon CORP! Stop being booted and win what you got left!
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/5/2017 15:19:18


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 4














Finished Games

26.02.2017
12977265 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated German Warlords (m7)

27.02.2017
12843231 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Bear+orionaux) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)
12942442 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

28.02.2017
12843238 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese) defeated Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
12948269 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) defeated Preußen Garde (Naglfar)

01.03.2017
12931944 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)

02.03.2017
12868643 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeated 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife)

03.03.2017
12968947 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12927777 1v1 Old Strat ME: CORP (mm3100) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)
12862277 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd (MrJimmy) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)

04.03.2017
12921281 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)
12946138 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)
12963927 2v2 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi) defeated Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien)




Commentary

7th Heaven
Notes three wins, but also one loss. Yet another loss on 1v1 Volcano Island, but also finally manages to win a game on this template. Still far above the reach of their opponents: Sits at (3-0) on 2v2 Guiroma, (4-0) on 1v1 Old Strat ME (last game against Lu Fredd), finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (5-0) result.

CORP
Wins their first games on 3v3 ROR and 1v1 Volcano Island. Finishes 1v1 Old Strat ME with a good (4-1) and 1v1 Guiroma with a decent (3-2). No news from 2v2 Guiroma, where we wait for Ven to come back. I feel I won't be objective enough talking more about CORP's results, so I'll leave it at that.

Dutch Forever
Another bad week, with 3 losses and no wins. This includes one 3v3, one 2v2 and one 1v1 (Volcano Island). Clan's just one game away from finishing 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 Old Strat ME each, being at (3-1) and (1-3) in them, respectively. They have yet to win a team game((0-3) on 2v2 Guiroma, having matches remaining against CORP and German Warlords), and we all know how precious team formats are.

German Warlords
Now they are only 2 points away to be mathematically eliminated from contest for 1st place. Another bad week, losing a 3v3, two 1v1s and winning only one 1v1. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (2-3) result, which is the most wins they have on a single template. They are also first to finish two games on 3v3 Rome, unfortunately both are losses. (0-4) 1v1 Old Strat ME doesn't look likely to turn into (1-4), and (1-2) on Volcano Island is stil before playing both CORP and 7th Heaven.

Lu Fredd
Another good week, with four wins and one loss. Overally they do really well so far and are still vying for the 2nd place, and that might be decided by 3v3 games - which _will_ finish last and they are worth most.
Unfortunately they are (0-4) on Guiroma (remaining game against Dutch (the only template this clan does well at), and on all but one template they have a game remaining against 7th Heaven, although the current (3-1) on Old Strat ME and (3-0) on Volcano Island look very solid.

Preußen Garde
3rd of march is a black day for Preußen Garde - they finish three games and all three are losses. Abysmal week for them, winning 1 game and losing 4, which decisively puts them behind top three clans of the division. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (1-4) result.

Looking at the graph, there is a big dropoff between the three: 7th Heaven, CORP, Lu Fredd and another three: Preußen Garde, Dutch Forever, German Warlords (all the worst nationalists, one would say). Actually 7th Heaven is very much ahead of the other two as well.

1v1 Guiroma will likely be the first format to finish, as it's only two games away from completion. Next up is 1v1 Old Strat ME as it has all games already created.

Edited 3/9/2017 16:28:37
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/6/2017 15:13:19

max
Level 58
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hey you have wrong LuFredd player in guiroma template :) first four games (those that are finished) were played by moffel38, after he got booted from his first two games we replaced him with Double D. but sadly Double D. got only the last game in guiroma, so the games finished last week were still played by moffel38
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/9/2017 16:30:59


Onoma94
Level 61
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Thanks, fixed that.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/10/2017 09:34:18

max
Level 58
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also i think you're right in that the 2nd place will likely be decided in 3v3s, actually it's possible that LuFredd vs. CORP 3v3 might be the deciding game (well if we can keep up because as you said we have propably bit harder games than CORP left so it's possible that you can secure then 2nd position without that win too) as it gives the winner 5 points while lowering losers max points by 5
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/12/2017 18:47:10


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 5











Finished games

2016.03.05

12843235 3v3 Deadman's Rome: 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeated CORP (Baer+The Shots+orionaux)

2016.03.06

13034654 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

2016.03.08

12843236 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde (Nina+Naram-Sin+cnxer) defeated Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese)

2016.03.10

13014467 1v1 Old Strat ME: 7th Heaven (Bahamut) defeated Lu Fredd (MrJimmy)
13028038 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated German Warlords (Janine)



Commentary

Not a whole lot of games have finished this week - 1v1s are almost wrapped up and now mostly the usually slower team games have left.

7th Heaven maintains their insane winrate and wins 11 points from 3 finished games. Preußen has a nice week, upsetting Lu Fredd on DRoR and collecting a win on ME. Now it looks like that Preußen can fight for 3rd place in the division, as their max points still easily allow them to. Lu Fredd starts to take hits, although I already mentioned the worse of them. German Warlords continue to be everyone's punching bag, and Dutch don't finish any game this week. They seem locked on their current positions.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/12/2017 22:16:36


Cloud Strife
Level 61
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If I'm not mistaken, we are the first clan in all Q groups to secure a place in C. We are currently sitting at 62 points,while maximum points for Lu Fredd and CORP are 67 and 68 respectively. However, those 2 clans have yet to finish 3v3,2v2 and 1v1 game between them - which ammounts to total of 12 points. There is no theoretical variation of those results where both clans finish above 7th Heaven.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/12/2017 22:46:44


LeQuébécois_Benoit
Level 63
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Congrats 7th Heaven!! You rock! :)


You were my favorites to win the whole division C anyways ;).

Edited 3/12/2017 22:46:55
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/12/2017 23:21:05

Cid Highwind
Level 57
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Can add another two wins for 7th and a 2v2 guiroma sweep. We had our last two games finish just a bit ago.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/14/2017 03:48:10


Deadman 
Level 64
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That was quick! Congrats on the qualification to C.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/18/2017 20:48:55


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 6











Finished Games

2017.03.12
12975054 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)
12975056 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Lu Fredd (max+kalati)

2017.03.13
1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated Lu Fredd (Double D.)

2017.03.14
3v3 Deadman's Rome: Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

2017.03.15
12843232 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde (Nina+Naram-Sin+cnxer) defeated Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
13097718 2v2 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)

2017.03.16
13034653 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) defeated Dutch Forever (Hendrik)

2017.03.17
12849655 2v2 Guiroma: German Warlords defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)
13098894 2v2 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (max+Kalati) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)

2017.03.18
13116377 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)



Commentary

7th Heaven is now 2 points away from clinching first place of division Q2. CORP doesn't finish any games.

Lu Fredd has a so-so week, although they score two wins, they also lose two games, concluding 1v1 Guiroma with unspectacular 0-5 result. Being fifty-fifty on wins vs losses kind of widens the gap between 2nd and their 3rd.

Preußen has interesting week, because it has 2 wins against Dutch Forever and 2 losses on 2v2 Guiroma. As for tournament finishes they also deal in twos, because they finished two: 2v2 Guiroma with (2-3) (see? yet more twos) and 1v1 ME with... also 2-3. Pretty sure that their song of the week is this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSbBvKaM6sk

Dutch Forever finishes 1v1 Guiroma with good (4-1) result and wins on 3v3 DRome, but also gets a boot loss on 1v1 ME against [PG]. It seems that they are a one-template clan here having only won one game on each, except 1v1 Guiroma where they won as much as four.

German Warlords win their first team game (finally!), but they also lose 4 other team games, which puts them a whole tier behind other clans. They are now mathematically eliminated from finishing anywhere other than last place.

This week sees 1v1 Old Strat ME and 1v1 Guiroma wrapping up, while 1v1 Volcano Island and 2v2 Guiroma only now wait for CORP to finish (has 4 and 3 games to finish in them, respectively).

Overally the final results are more and more visible, clans are cementing at their positions, 7th Heaven as a clear winner, CORP with lots of unfinished games likely at second, Lu Fredd getting distanced from CORP, Preußen Garde only a bit worse than Lu Fredd, Dutch getting outclassed on all but one template and German Warlords handing out wins to anyone.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/19/2017 03:27:59


Zack Fair
Level 58
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CORP with lots of unfinished games likely at second, Lu Fredd getting distanced from CORP

Is this you declaring that those unfinished games are expected to be wins for CORP? The stat sheet reads that Lu Fredd has won a higher % of points contested and will get 2nd at the current pace.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/19/2017 04:19:57


LeQuébécois_Benoit
Level 63
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It is normal Onoma is biased in his analysis :P
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/19/2017 21:13:25


Zack Fair
Level 58
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haha gotcha :)
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/20/2017 00:13:33


Onoma94
Level 61
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I think looking at contested points alone isn't enough, especially considering the actual matchups - which I payed attention to a few times in the updates.

Let's look at CORP's results so far:



As we can see, 7th Heaven - who are sitting at 91% in points contested and 90% winrate, being so far ahead everyone else it's not funny - is the only clan against which CORP played full set of games (or "played", since 2v2 Guiroma had 1 CORP player not joining, but that's not too weighty here). Here also CORP has 20% winrate against this clan - only 3 out of 18 dearly points gained.

Against everyone else though, there are very few matchups, out of which only two don't come from 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 ME! One is an auto-loss on 2v2 Guiroma (from the same player on the same template not joining), other is win against German Warlords on the DRome. This kind of speaks nothing about CORP players' skill there, however we know much more about other clans (since they have much more games finished): there is a one loss against Dutch Forever on 1v1 Guiroma - for [NL] it's the only template where they have more than 1 win after 4 out of 5 templates finished (except CORP matchup on 2v2 Guiroma). I do not expect them to break out from it, and I feel fairly safe to predict three losses against CORP incoming (assuming Ven will join and play his games). The one loss against Preußen Garde comes from Ven not joining his game, as said before, otherwise it's all wins. German Warlords do very poorly in this division, and CORP already has 3 wins against them, any CORP loss in remaining two games against [GER] would be a massive upset. Lu Fredd deserve their own write up - see below.

Templates-wise: we see a very good 80% winrate on 1v1 ME and decent 60% winrate on 1v1 Guiroma - the two finished templates. Other templates however, are super scarce in games. 1v1 Volcano Island has a lone game finished, which is CORP's only win against 7th Heaven. I sure expect more wins here. 3v3 Drome has loss against the best clan and win against the worst clan, which says nothing, but I do believe in CORP team doing well here. Just take my word for it. :P



One thing we immediately notice is that Lu Fredd has many more games finished than CORP. Second thing is: while CORP had all matches against 7th Heaven already one, Lu Fredd already has all matches against the "weaker" clans of the division done, only waiting to play CORP and 7th Heaven! Seems obvious that DD will have higher points contested if they have less games against the winner. ;P

Winrates aren't perfect against any of the clans there: 80% against [NL], 60% against Preußen, 80% against German Warlords. Although that's due to problems on 1v1 Guiroma, where one player got booted in 4 games and the replacement lost the last one, against [NL] (already said it's [NL]'s only "good" template), otherwise we would see two perfect winrates! It's much worse against CORP and 7th Heaven: a whole zero games won against those clans. It doesn't even look like a competition. But maybe there's a chance for DD: 1v1 Volcano Island is the only template where 7th Heaven has as many as two losses. Maybe Lu Fredd will score 3 points there? I don't expect destroying them on 3v3 DRome. CORP is a bit more volatile, since there's the Ven factor. I'll be, however, biased and say that CORP will win at least one remaining game against Lu Fredd. (:



Overally my prognosis for CORP results is as seen below:



I'm gonna be pessimistic and predict 0 wins for CORP on 2v2 Guiroma. Hopefully it won't happen though. Wins at Volcano Island are a no-brainer, and loss against Lu Fredd on it is here to spice things up. As I said, I believe in Dror (#trustMOTD). Overally 53 points.

Prognosis for Lu Fredd:



I don't know if Lucien Müller will win his games against both Cloud Strife and The Shots. That's an optimistic variant (pessimistic for my clan). No mercy at DRor though. So we can see 50 points there, which is just a bit less than what I predicted for CORP.

Actually you are right that my wording in update was biased, since it's actually a bit closer, as seen in this post. But possibility of DD overtaking CORP is not that big.
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 3/26/2017 15:48:44


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 7











Finished Games

13017791 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
13028037 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeats Preußen Garde (Naglfar)
13070395 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde defeats German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)



Commentary

Most games are behind us, so we're off for slow mode. This week seen only three games finishing.

CORP has a good week, scoring wins on VI (against Preußen) and DRome (against NL). Unfortunately we also see Ven taking his last, 7th vacation for period of four days. Not an efficient use of vacation if you ask me, and it still throws a big shadow on CORP's CL future.

Preußen Garde finished 1v1 Volcano Island with (2-3), losing against CORP and scores third win on ROR, against Germans.

Lu Fredd and 7th Heaven don't finish any games this week.

[NL]... as mentioned, a loss against CORP on 3v3 DRome.

Finally, German Warlords finish 3v3 DRome with (0-5) result this week, after game against Preußen Garde with predictable outcome.

Edited 3/26/2017 15:49:03
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 4/1/2017 21:38:31


Onoma94
Level 61
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Division Q2 - Week 8

I changed clan so my updates aren't biased anymore. :) :)











Finished Games (by template)

3v3 Deadman's Rome
13111040 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair)
13070394 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux)
13193130 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)

1v1 Volcano Island
13153790 CORP (The Shots) defeats Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)



Commentary

(ok so listen up @Oh, this is for you!)

Well, this is a week of surprises. Firstly, Lu Fredd wins as many as two games on 3v3 Drome on last burst, scrapping 10 points off CORP and 7th Heaven!! Overally winning the most valued template with (4-1) result. This means that window of promotion for CORP is now way narrowed. Secondly, Ven came back and CORP's remaining 2v2 Guiroma is safer now, although - obviously - no new games finished here yet.

7th Heaven wins one and loses one, but at this point it doesn't mean anything for them anymore... except finally dropping below 90% points contested (were a bit below it after week 4, but that was just a fluke). Also, right now they have only one game left to finish stage 1.

Lu Fredd right now definitely picks up second place, with winrate and contested points higher than CORP's after their DRome finish. They now need one more win against CORP to assure promotion spot.

CORP falls to third, going 1-1 this week, losing on DRome and winning on VI. Now they need to perform very consistently to avoid relegation. And still lots of games before the end...

Preußen Garde and German Warlords don't finish any game this week. Currently they have mainly only games against CORP left.

Dutch Forever go (0-2) this week and now they have reverse clinched 5th place (have lower max points than 4th place's points gotten).
Clan League 9: Qualifier Q2 - Official Thread: 4/1/2017 22:02:44


Legi
Level 57
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go go power-corps!

thanks Onoma for the updates. biased or not, they are realy good and informative updates. (i personaly like them to be a bit biased)

tth Heaven have the spot.
now it a run between Lu Fredd and CORP. for Nr.2 .

i'm excited to se the first results from corps 2v2's.
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