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Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:03:52


QueefBalls
Level 59
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Just hoping someone could explain this one to me. The built-in templates/ladder settings have no luck. Yet when you attack 2 neutrals with 3 armies, sometimes you take the territory with one left over, sometimes you take it with two left over, and sometimes you don't take it at all.

If luck is truly turned off, then theoretically shouldn't the same attack yield the same results each time?

Again, just hoping for some clarification. Have a nice day.

QB
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:09:28


knyte 
Level 58
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The luck modifier isn't the only thing in play here. Simply put, there's two types of 0% luck:

0% SR - where it's always guaranteed that a 3v2 will work

0% WR - what's used on the 1v1 ladder

Keep in mind that Warlight's combat formulas often yield non-integer values (i.e., decimals). If you've got SR (Straight Round) enabled, it just rounds that value to the nearest integer- so 1.4 becomes 1. If you've got WR (Weighted Random) enabled, it rounds that value to one of the two nearest integers (unless the value is itself an integer) part of the number after the decimal point (converted to a percentage), so if the formula yields 1.4 attacking armies killed, there's a 60% chance that it will round to 1 and a 40% chance that it will round to 2.

So 0% WR isn't "0% luck" in the sense that attacks with a known number of attacker armies hitting a known number of defender armies are 100% predictable. If you want "0% luck" in the sense that you asked for, always use Straight Round.

Wiki on rounding modes: https://www.warlight.net/wiki/Rounding_mode

Edited 7/1/2015 10:48:51
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:18:28


QueefBalls
Level 59
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Ah, okay. Thanks for clarifying that. I've only ever played no luck straight round so I guess I just assumed that's what the ladders were.

But also, I thought the ladders were supposed to be pure skill? Doesn't weighted random kind of take that away?
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:28:32


Mirror 
Level 59
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Coin games are pure skill. Ladders not. Some amount of randomness is good.
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:29:28


knyte 
Level 58
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The ladders aren't pure-skill. Pure-skill refers to a combination of the following three settings:

    * Luck modifier set to 0%

    * Rounding mode set to Straight Round

    * Turn order set to No-luck Cyclic


The 1v1 and 2v2 ladders only meet the first criterion.

Doesn't weighted random kind of take that away?


A lot of players would argue that. If you check forum history, you'll notice a lot of people who bring up games they lost largely due to a good number of 3v2's not working (i.e., they lost the game primarily on luck) and push for Straight Round. There's also a few notable posts about switching away from random turn-order to either Cyclic (where it's random for the first turn but predictable thereafter), No-luck Cyclic (turn order determined by how fast you are on your first turn and then cyclic), or something else (like ChrisCMU's suggestion for a Weighted Random turn order where the probability of getting successive first-orders decreases by a set amount each turn- so it's tough to get repeats).

However, as far as the SR vs. WR debate goes, there's support on both sides. WR, while introducing an element of luck, isn't quite so bad when you consider what Warlight inherently is- a game of calculated risk, constrained decision-making, and resource allocation and use. There is going to be luck inherent to the game, and a portion of "skill" in this game is the ability to navigate through that luck, to minimize risks and losses while maximizing gains (or more accurately, to maximize gains minus losses). So even a 0% SR No-luck Cyclic game is not truly "pure-skill." Moreover, 3v2 failures and successive first-order scenarios balance themselves out in the long run, with each player being on the receiving end about exactly as often as they are on the beneficiary side.

The discussion is nowhere close to being resolved since a lot of strategic players have a preference for 0% WR over 0% SR just because of the strategic considerations it introduces into the game, although 0% SR is gaining ground.

The other part of the debate is a little bit murkier, since No-luck Cyclic is based on how fast you take your first turn (which makes the distribution turn even more complicated) and introduces its own problems.

Edited 6/30/2015 11:31:09
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 11:31:22


QueefBalls
Level 59
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Thanks for the clarification brothers. I didn't realize it was such a hot topic!

Edited 6/30/2015 11:31:51
Question About No Luck: 6/30/2015 22:19:46


Master Turtle 
Level 61
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The 2v2 ladder is actually 16% luck WR, but Knyte is right other than that.
Question About No Luck: 7/1/2015 10:49:06


knyte 
Level 58
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^ Thanks for the correction. I've fixed my original comment.
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