Predicting Clan league results is fun, but are you really a genius when you put Masters over Optimum? (No offense)
This question is much more fun, when you have to bet against the odds!
I present you A TON of clan league division A betting odds, where you can show that you truly are smarter than the rest of us!https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15QHLKvrWKc9MT9hmWOPLwgIrh1l8EVAr1gS7aB-HWRw/edit?usp=sharing
For this, I used a bottom-up approach where I calculated probabilites of outcomes of every single game that will be played and aggregated those to betting odds for tournament results, player rankings, clan rankings, ...
I tried to be as data-driven as possible with the info available and added as little as possible of my own estimations.
I am relatively confident to have calculated accurate-ish odds for CL events.
Can you beat me?
Try it by betting against my odds.
For this, I recommend we all use these few rules:
1 - You can bet 1000 tokens
2 - You shall not bet more than 50 tokens per bet
At the end of Clan league, the better with the most return will win, and everyone with a return of >1000 tokens will have beaten me.
( I added a small bookie margin - But at least I won't collect taxes, promise)
Share your bets with us before the first CL results start coming in.
Oh, and by the way - since I used a bottom-up approach I can calculate probabilities for pretty much every scenario, so if you are curious about extra odds or probabilites, ask me).
Disclaimer: The weak link for "precise" odds will always be input data.