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Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 14:58:26


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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Predicting Clan league results is fun, but are you really a genius when you put Masters over Optimum? (No offense)
This question is much more fun, when you have to bet against the odds!

I present you A TON of clan league division A betting odds, where you can show that you truly are smarter than the rest of us!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15QHLKvrWKc9MT9hmWOPLwgIrh1l8EVAr1gS7aB-HWRw/edit?usp=sharing

For this, I used a bottom-up approach where I calculated probabilites of outcomes of every single game that will be played and aggregated those to betting odds for tournament results, player rankings, clan rankings, ...

I tried to be as data-driven as possible with the info available and added as little as possible of my own estimations.

I am relatively confident to have calculated accurate-ish odds for CL events.

Can you beat me?

Try it by betting against my odds.
For this, I recommend we all use these few rules:

1 - You can bet 1000 tokens
2 - You shall not bet more than 50 tokens per bet

That's it.
At the end of Clan league, the better with the most return will win, and everyone with a return of >1000 tokens will have beaten me.
( I added a small bookie margin - But at least I won't collect taxes, promise)

Share your bets with us before the first CL results start coming in.

Oh, and by the way - since I used a bottom-up approach I can calculate probabilities for pretty much every scenario, so if you are curious about extra odds or probabilites, ask me).
Disclaimer: The weak link for "precise" odds will always be input data.
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 16:54:03


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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Rule edit since people (thankfully) got invested in this already:

1 - You can bet 1000 tokens
2 - You shall not bet more than 50 tokens per bet

3 - Bets that are essentially the same same bets like Over 5,5 and 6-0 cannot be made twice
4 - Combo bets are possible (Particularly to be able to predict precise clan rankings by comboing clan rank events)
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 17:03:13


Old Nick 
Level 59
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Count me in! Its like sports betting this will be fun;)

Also my alt has all the coins on it since it plays CW at top level, I will be using that account and name for this event

Edited 1/3/2024 17:03:46
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 17:19:30


Old Nick 
Level 59
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My Bets are as follows:
Q=Quota
T=Token Wager
W=Won

2v2 Crimea: 2-4 Optimum Q5,7 T50 W285
1v1 Landria: 4-2 Optimum Q12 T50 W600
Clan League Winner: Optimum Q30 T50 W1500


I put it all in the spread sheet as well!

Total Winnings: 2,385
Total Losses: 150
Total Tokens Left: 850

Edited 1/3/2024 18:21:11
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 17:30:52


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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Happy to hear that you like it.
But haha, you misunderstood me.

We are not betting coins or anything like that.
I will be bankrupt if something unexpected happens *cries in poor*
We are betting imaginary tokens against each other, because it's fun.
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 19:29:32


FiveSmith 
Level 59
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Will there be a scoreboard of some kind? Or some stats with odds?
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 19:39:52

Tactique
Level 56
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Fivesmith makes the best stat pages

I bet on Marcus! *immediately goes bankrupt* … dang it Alex <.<
Clan League Betting: 1/3/2024 20:06:09


Beep Beep I'm A Jeep 
Level 64
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@FiveSmith: The short answer is No - not for now.

I do not plan to further automate or extend this sheet for now.
Maybe, if I have a super fun idea, I will add a new betting event in the next few days, I'll leave that option open.

But especially I am not further automating this sheet.
I am also not planning to release statistics (these give a false sense of accuracy anyways).
After bets came in and CL started, I do plan to aggregate somehow the bets though to determine a winner (scoreboard), but that's for when the time comes.

I am most interested personally in refining the accuracy of the probabilites for singular game outcomes. There are many things to consider there and I have more small twists and tweaks in that model than first come to mind.
I feel however at this point only large datasets and machine learning of some sort could help there, but I might explore these options.


If you want to jump in - and as tacky said - you are much better than me at data, statistics, visualization - then you are very welcome to do so.

Edited 1/3/2024 20:06:33
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 19:26:55


Rento 
Level 61
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Event----------------Outcome------------------Quota---My wager
1v1 MME MA LD---Buns under 3,5 wins-------12-------50
CL relegation-------Blitz------------------------1---------50
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 20:07:07


Corn Man 
Level 61
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My bets so far, all 50 coins:

CL relegation Python to relegate 41
Clan ranking Lu Fredd 3rd 43
2v2 Volcano Python 6-0 15
1v1 Guiroma Python 6-0 24
1v1 Fogless Fighting Python 6-0 5.5
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 20:11:59


Old Nick 
Level 59
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lol wait, how can Python Relagate if it's winning 6-0 in the brackets
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 20:23:46


Norman 
Level 58
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lol wait, how can Python Relagate if it's winning 6-0 in the brackets

I see your are not into betting. That is called hedging :)
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 20:35:29


Marcus Aurelius 
Level 62
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My predictions for CL 17

I bet the max amount.

CL Winner: Masters
CL Relegator: Blitz (sorry Jeff)
Landria: Masters goes 4-2 or over
Guiroma: Masters goes 4-2 or over
Aseridith: Masters goes 4-2 or over
MME MA: Masters goes 4-2 or over
Unicorn Island: Masters goes 5-1 (Rufus will lose to Jeff again)
Crimea Army Cap: Masters goes 5-1
Szeurope: Masters goes 4-2 or over
Volcano Island: Masters goes 6-0
META: Masters goes 5-1 or over (ONE game is the one to watch)
DRoR: Masters goes 4-2

Edited 1/7/2024 07:42:25
Clan League Betting: 1/6/2024 22:53:18


Motoki 
Level 62
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Marcus I know you are called a `honest idiot` but you need to bet an amount for each prediction ...
Clan League Betting: 1/7/2024 04:48:20


Octane 
Level 65
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All my bets are 50 tokens:

Clan League Winner - Optimum 30
Relegates to B - Union Strikes Back 6.3
5th place in A - Blitz 29
DRoR under 3.5 wins - Python 3.4
META 3-3 - Masters 3.9
Volcano Island under 3.5 wins - Masters 13.0
Volcano Island over 4.5 wins - Optimum 11.0
Szeruope under 3.5 wins - Python 3.5
Szeruope over 4.5 wins - Optimum 3.0
Crimea 6-0 - ONE! 4.6
Landria under 3.5 wins - MoriOri 3.9
Landria over 3.5 wins - Chazz Michael Michaels 4.5
MME MA LD under 4.5 wins - Buns157 3.4
Unicorn Island over 4.5 wins - tornado 2.3
Unicorn Island 0-6 - Bbraw 8.0
Aseridith Islands 6-0 - alexclusive 5.7
Aseridith Islands 5-1 - jache 10.0
Fogless Fighting over 3.5 wins - jache 3.1
Guiroma over 4.5 wins - adrenaline 4.0
Guiroma under 2.5 wins - malakkan 6.9

Edited 1/7/2024 05:19:35
Clan League Betting: 1/7/2024 04:50:58


alexclusive 
Level 65
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He said max 50 tokens per bet lol
Clan League Betting: 1/7/2024 05:02:48


Octane 
Level 65
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Oops, thought that was the minimum, edited it to 20 bets for 50 tokens

Edited 1/7/2024 05:19:50
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