I do not contribute much; they suspect me as a wolf.
I say I am a villager; they say I am a wolf and demand proof that I am a villager.
I give proof; they say I am a wolf for saying what wolves say.
What do you expect me to do? From what it seems like, the best thing for me to do is become totally inactive and get removed from the game by not voting twice in a row!

Nah John. What they are looking for is you to come up with alternatives you suspect to be wolves. Dont bother defending yourself you just dig a deeper hole. Use the power of your posts to make another candidate more lynchable.

I reckon if you just filter through Ehrm's posts you will be able to make a case for him. After all that is why we are playing right? The fun is in the hunt.

Edited 2014-11-10 09:27:36

His Balls is right John. Nothing personal, I just want your opinions rather than the bare minimum.
Cheers mate.

Ehrman, who are your top suspects at the moment?

Ace:
John Smith. Due to him admitting he allows others to dictate his flow of voting.

I would however prefer to test Frank's claim before lynching him. If Veigar is killed we know he trod on some toes. If Frank fails to shoot a target we know he was lying. I personally don't agree with supporting Veigar's theory simply because he has a seer on his side.

That being said, I am not convinced Frank's innocent. Its a huge claim Veigar is going with, and a risk. Till this point he hasn't said or done something this drastic. So I guess it really bottles down to perspectives.

I would like to avoid villager casualties as much as possible.

Its almost certainly too late to test Franks claim but okay. Frank, who you gonna shoot? Tell us and if that person is dead in the morning great. We have a confirmed villager. More likely though, if your claim is true you will be killed by the wolves. Either way, there is no point saving your bullet. Ill give you the benefit of the doubt, not that it will probably change things.

so,

VOTE JOHN SMITH, until I hear better from him.

Well... not sure about the logic from Ehrmantraut
and reading all votes before, I believe FRANK is winning the race.. nobody knows if he a vigilante..

Somehow I don't trust these two guys... what are your thoughts?

My analysis:
We have 20 players left. Of these 20, there will be at least 5 wolves (+1muse/wolf), 1 angel, 1 vig, 2 seers, 1 muse and his/her villager. taking into account that every seer looked up one identity per night, they know up to 6 villagers (3 nights, different seering). Therefore, if there really is a group of confirmed in a chat (as Arun said), then we have a group of up to 12 confirmed non-wolves. If this is true, does the wolfmuse know who they are? If there are really 12 confirmed non-wolves, they hold the majority vote and can- and I think should- kill everybody else. I expect that Dom has equally distributed the specials among the cells.
Looking at these numbers, I realize that I am probably the only villager (or maybe up to a handful of villagers) with no intel whatsoever. I will have to base my judgement on the public chat alone, it seems.

My suspect list in order of likelihood (and this will probably get me killed)
Landalf (no analysis, just blabla phrases like "start and think people", no opinion of his own)
genghis (not an exact reason but his abstaining from voting and rare comments)
Mooooo (lurking)

then maybe ehrenmantraut, kellen, Taisho and John Smith (just get a vibe)

People, I except to be on the villager side are
Dr. Stupid (analysis far beyond what a wolf would say I think)
Hisballs (disagreeing to be part of Arun's Trio from the first moment. A wolf coud have taken advantage of such a position)

Probably innocent
Rento but I don't know.


Questions, I cannot answer:
1. Kasparov/false seer incident.
2. Is there really a chat with all specials? If so, it's infiltrated by the muse or false seer. What to do about it?

s2e4

ooh, I didn't take into account the neutral roles. but that should only be one or two people. I don't think Dom has chosen more than that

Vibe ? An elaboration is requested so I can do my utmost to dispel these vibes.

All villagers should be clamouring to get themselves seered at this point to join the village confirmed gang.

Confirmed are outnumbering the village so this pretence of wolf hunting is pretty silly since by tomorrow pretty much everyone's roles will be known.

Basically because the wolves haven't caught a seer all those not confirmed, or confirmed to be wolves will be lynch victims regardless of what they say.

I see the first night without a night kill happening alarmingly soon.

Did we ever find a fool by the way?

	A Talking Taco		has voted for			Taisho	
	Ace Windu		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Clavicus Vile		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Dr. Stupid		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Ehrmantraut		has voted for			John Smith	
	Frankdeslimste		has voted for				
	Genghis			has voted for			Kellen the Conquerer	
	Green			has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	his balls.		has voted for			John Smith	
	John Smith		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Kellen the Conquerer	has voted for				
	Landalf			has voted for				
	Lord Veigar		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Mayor Sonnen		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	MoOoOoOoO		has voted for				
	Mr. Pride		has voted for			Kellen the Conquerer	
	rento			has voted for			John Smith	
	Silver			has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Taisho			has voted for			Frankdeslimste	
	Traintown		has voted for			Frankdeslimste	

Total:
Frankdeslimste - 10
John Smith - 3
Kellen the Conquerer - 2
Taisho - 1

DEADLINE: 6PM (UK TIME) MONDAY 10/11/14





Sorry for slow updates chaps; had a very busy weekend!

Landalf - was that a vote post or not? I wasn't sure?

Just had to get out my analysis so later I know how close or how off I was. :)

EDIT: If 12 are non-wolves, 2 are wolves, there are only 6 left to be seer'd which means 3 nights

Edited 2014-11-10 16:45:04

Wait why 12 non-wolves? All I can figure is 8 max. 2 seered per night, 4 nights, 8 total, plus the 2 seers, minus the 2 wolves. And if the seers had to do some sort of seering on each other for Arun, or accidentally seered the same person before going to Arun, then it would be even less...

EDIT: Forgot to subtract the wolves.

Edited 2014-11-10 17:54:23

As I said before 1 angel, 1 vig, 2 seers, 1 muse + 1 villager, the seer'd villagers (up to 6) = 6+6=12

Yeah but any of those "specials" could be a wolf you'd still have to seer them to make sure....and that last villager doesn't count if it was one of the seered ones.

Edited 2014-11-10 18:17:49

Except the seers, who we saw found 2 wolves last night, but how would they have known that early in the game?

Ehrmantraut, You have one suspect? Come on, you can do better than that.

His balls, I'm not changing from Frank, his claim is completely unbelievable as I explained on page 50.

Frank must be a wolf because otherwise the confirmed villagers wouldn't have let that bandwagon develop.

Edit: Is MoOoOoOoO going to die from missing the vote?

Edited 2014-11-10 19:37:51