Guys, BDH hasn't incriminated himself. WE CANNOT VOTE FOR SEMICE. HE IS EITHER AN ANGEL OR A FOOL; we don't get either. Vote Lawlz.

Change to Pride

Your plan semice.

What's the advantage of the seers revealing themselves publically?

This method of proving a seers credibility which I discussed at 20:16 yesterday is not actually foolproof whether the seer predicts an angel or a villager. Eg kasp has told the wolves he is not gonna be able to play, so they can bus him. Another wolf goes to arun claiming seer and that he knows kasp is a wolf. Gains credibility. Not foolproof.

Dont go public specials.

VOTE SEMICE. Looks like we might get traction here.

The maths stuff. Train town it doesn't really matter whether there is one, two or three angels/seers because the last one of three or two will effectively have the same chance of a random kill of our only one.

Not sure why we are doing this though as its never gonna actually be random and they are safer hidden.

Arun. Why is semice either angel or fool?

Fool I could see but not angel. And like I have said I have no problem allowing the fool to have his hollow victory.

There is slim pickings evidence wise for anyone but you understand why kasp would be a wasted vote right?

This method of proving a seers credibility which I discussed at 20:16 yesterday is not actually foolproof whether the seer predicts an angel or a villager. Eg kasp has told the wolves he is not gonna be able to play, so they can bus him. Another wolf goes to arun claiming seer and that he knows kasp is a wolf. Gains credibility. Not foolproof.

Precisely why I don't trust Arun with roles.

Vote Lawlz.

Yet he still claims me to be village

Show us the votes dom

and also make a spreadsheet

You could do that for us taco? We can count ourselves. Dom can then be more of an adjudicator. If we miscount somehow and the wrong person is called up for lynch I'm sure they or someone else will speak up. Those under attack should be keeping an eye on the votes in particular. If they aren't then tough luck.

Edited 2014-11-03 08:22:16

Votes

Kasparov - 5
Semicedevine - 7
bdh- 1
Mr.Pride -1

please tell me if im wrong

Edited 2014-11-03 10:02:46

VOTES SEMICE

So if we vote semice and he does turn out to be the jester, will he be reborn as a villager? Has he won already then?

@hisballs I agree on the logic that the seer who "outs" kasparov might be a wolf in disguise

since voting kasparov has become useless,

I CHANGE MY VOTE AGAIN TO SEMICE

Change vote to : Semice

Sorry Dom, counting up votes is gonna be really tough today....

His balls, I'm a math guy so I did math. Then I decided to show everyone else, because why not? Also, when I was talking about having multiple angels and seers, what I calculated was the chance of just 1 dying (which, with the assumption of equal number of angels and seers, would leave 1 seer unprotected in Semice plan). Also, I would guess that since it is not random, it would skew towards the wolves having a better chance of killing the angels earlier, because whether or not lynches kill wolves, the wolves will kill a villager, and the wolves can make more informed guesses about who may be angels based on conversation.

The chances of Semice's roles

Jester: 1 in 29
Wolf ( according to the prdiction of 5 ) 5 in 29
Survivor : 1 in 25?
Nutreal and other roles : ? In 24-29
Villager : mostly in 29

my math is off

Edited 2014-11-03 10:13:41

Sorry Dom, counting up votes is gonna be really tough today....

Yeah, gonna be a big job, haha! Still, it's good to see people getting really involved :)


With regards to inactivity, if they've missed seering round + first two voting rounds, they're definitely going tonight. Others may get a reprieve if they've been active but just missed a vote or two - I'll see when I get home from work, as I can consult my spreadsheet then!

i bet this thread will beat so the question is

Edited 2014-11-03 13:13:26

So yeah there is a 1 in 29 chance of the wolves striking lucky if there is only 1 angel. Do you see what I mean about the last of the angles is the same as only having one.

Most importantly though, why are we better off with the seers going public?

Actually, no. There is a 1 in (29-x) chance of x wolves striking lucky if there is only 1 angel. Doesn't change much but still had to be mr. smartypants on this one :)

Change vote back to Semi

Why don't we split vote between Kasparov and Semice? Then we won't have to rely on Kasp to not slip in and cast a vote at the last second to avoid modkilled?

We definately lynch Kasp tomorrow regardless. No loss to the village.

Definitely not a good idea to try to save a friend. How do you know he's innocent?

Who do you suspect? Dont just give up.