I don't have any evidence for this, it's pure speculation, but if I look at the amounts you actually got and put them in relation to the base recipe runtimes, there seems to be a pattern: For quick recipes you get large amounts, for slow recipes you get fewer. This suggests that there is another limiting factor that you missed. This might be the number of smelters/crafters.
Let's just take the screw example: To output 5k screws in 24h you have to output one screw in 17sec. For the amount you actually got (~3k) you have to output one screw in 30sec. If you do the math for the aluminum you get 7sec vs 14sec (rounded). If I keep the original recipe times in mind, I'd follow that you get the amount you can produce in 24h, meaning that you not only have to produce enough ore but also have to own the number of smelters/crafters to actually output those amounts. Then Market Raid would be some kind of min-function:
ore production per 24h / ores per alloy/item ,
seconds per 24h / recipe duration in seconds * number of smelters ,
<the same for crafters in case of items>
If you produce more ore but have limited smelters, no more Market Raid. If you have more smelters but produce not enough ore, no more Market Raid.
Don't know how this would be calculated if an item requires other items as ingredients.