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Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:12:01

Mathematician
Level 59
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Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:12:38


riskboy88 
Level 62
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Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:15:50


krinid 
Level 60
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#broken


A template so popular that only 1 team queued for it. Hmmmm, what could this possibly be telling us?

A timeslot with only 1 super popular template that a # of people queued for (I considered it) just to make a point. Resulting in 0 games played despite a # of people being ready to go and waiting for the timeslot. What could this possibly be telling us?

[sarcasm off]

Edited 10/9/2021 04:33:26
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:18:05


Shin
Level 59
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i guess it's ironic, so popular it's unpopular


Edited 10/9/2021 04:18:36
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:41:31


l4v.r0v 
Level 59
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Curious how we got here, so let's go back a few time slots:

7 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1234 - 10 on SEAD, 19 on SE1W (total: 29, +5 from 24h ago)
6 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1240 - 20 on SEAD, 15 on Strat 1v1 (total: 35, -6 from 24h ago)
5 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1246 - 3 on MA MME LF LD, 17 on COMBOMB (total: 20, -15 from 24h ago)
4 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1252 - 11 on Strat 1v1, 2 on Strat 2v2 (total: 13, -7 from 24h ago)
3 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1258 - 20 on SE1W, 3 on Strat 1v1 (total: 23, +10 from 24h ago)
2 days ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1264 - 11 on Strat 2v2, 21 on COMBOMB (total: 32, +9 from 24h ago)
1 day ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1270 - 3 on MME Commanders LD No Cards, 17 on COMBOMB (total: 20, -12 from 24h ago)
Today: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1276 - 9 on Strat 2v2 (total: 9, -11 from 24h ago)

Or if we go week by week to account for day-of-week seasonality:
4 weeks ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1108 - 8 on MA MME LF LD (total: 8, -6 from 1wk ago)
3 weeks ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1150 - 17 on Strat 2v2 (total: 17, +9 from 1wk ago)
2 weeks ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1192 - 29 on COMBOMB (total: 29, +12 from 1wk ago)
1 week ago: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1234 - 10 on SEAD, 19 on SE1W (total: 29, +0 from 1wk ago)
Today: https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1276 - 9 on Strat 2v2 (total: 9, -20 from 1wk ago)

The biggest day-to-day increases (1258, 1264) and week-to-week increases (1192) are associated with SE templates getting added. The biggest day-to-day declines (1246, 1270, 1276) and week-to-week declines (1108, 1276) seem to happen when MA MME LF LD or MME Commanders LD No Cards get pulled into the rotation or when Strat 2v2 becomes the only option.

Proposal (just for the community to chew on, I'm not delusional):
- Remove MA MME LF LD and MME Commanders LD No Cards from the CW rotation
- If Strat 2v2 is selected for a time slot, also include a 1v1 template in the mix
- Guarantee at least 1 SE template (SEAD, SE1W, or COMBOMB) is in each time slot

Otherwise we get a vicious cycle effect where a Strat 2v2 or MME LD template depresses participation, resulting in fewer templates for the same time slot 24h later, resulting in a higher likelihood of having a single unpopular template (i.e., no SE), and it goes on until luck brings SE back into the mix. SE is clearly overwhelmingly popular and should be in every timeslot, especially since setting the # of templates in a time slot based on the time slot 24h earlier assumes that time slot sign-ups are an accurate measure of interest, but clearly the selection of templates has a major impact on how that interest translates into participation.

Edited 10/9/2021 04:41:51
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 04:42:49


riskboy88 
Level 62
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should add duel lotto 1.0 to the mix
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 05:18:58


krinid 
Level 60
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+1 l4v's recommendations
Key highlight is that the algorithm bases # of templates on activity under the assumption that "all people active and wanting to participate will do so" but in reality, we will actually skip the timeslot entirely if the templates are really not what we're looking for. Really wish there were a button to indicate "I'm here & ready to play but don't like these templates so am skipping this timeslot".

-1 Riskboy's recommendation
(That's crazy talk!)

Edited 10/9/2021 06:19:24
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 05:23:00


Jacob the Restless 
Level 63
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i suggest 3v3s where no one gets turned down, and clans get mixed. imagine the drama
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 05:23:27


riskboy88 
Level 62
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clan war 2v2v2
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 05:43:04


l4v.r0v 
Level 59
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Really wish there were a button to indicate "I'm here & ready to play but don't like these templates so am skipping this timeslot".
You don't need a button for this. The site already knows you navigated to the Clan War page for the time slot. It can figure out interest from that.
i suggest 3v3s where no one gets turned down, and clans get mixed. imagine the drama
This is actually very doable with TrueSkill, although it's likely to lead to funny behavior when you have one rating for the entire clan. But TrueSkill was originally designed for Xbox multiplayer, e.g., getting put on random large teams with players of varying skill and then updating everyone's skill ratings as a result of the outcome. So if you got paired with a much weaker player and lost the game, that's going to be a relatively small rating update.

You could plausibly have a Clan War system with the following UX:
- You see checkboxes next to every template available for the time slot and can pick which ones you're available for
- You see a single total sign-up counter and a list of your signed-up clanmates only (maybe with templates selected)
- Min-weight network matching matchmakes players into teams with some other combinatorial optimization managing template assignment so that unpopular templates don't get totally neglected (this would leave much fewer spares)
- Players get rated at the team level so individual match quality is universally high except at the edges, with most players having close to 50% win rates (this solves the Ursus problem, where only clans with high average skill actually benefit from high-skill players' elevated win rates)
- For team templates, you could get paired with players from another clan (but the system would prefer matchmaking within a clan)

Clan Wars would functionally remain a contest of clan participation, with small bonuses for participation by high-skill players. But it would be a lot more rewarding to play in, imo, mainly due to higher match quality, higher likelihood of getting a match, and more variety in matchmaking and template assignment.

There's no realistic chance such a Clan War system would ever get implemented first-party, so maybe we could build a RT CLOT event that solves the RT participation problem by taking a cue from CW and only being joinable at select times (maybe just once a week to begin with).

Edited 10/9/2021 06:00:44
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 06:17:24


Shin
Level 59
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@krinid, i did not recommend anything at all
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/9/2021 06:19:58


krinid 
Level 60
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+1 Shin's correction
lol, My bad, it was RB pushing that ridiculous duel template again.

Edited 10/9/2021 06:20:08
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/12/2021 16:27:18

[GW] Rob
Level 62
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lol why join 2v2 if you have no teammate?
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/12/2021 16:54:41


l4v.r0v 
Level 59
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lol why join 2v2 if you have no teammate?
This happens fairly often. I just started checking time slots counting down from 1135 to see which ones had 2v2s and solo 2v2 sign-ups.

Of the first five I found with 2v2's, all had at least one solo/spare sign-up that couldn't get paired with someone from their clan:
https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1133
https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=5&Timeslot=1129
https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=5&Timeslot=1128
https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=5&Timeslot=1127
https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=5&Timeslot=1123

I think there should be a warning or informative message telling players they need a teammate from their clan or, better yet, warning them when they will not be matched with a teammate and letting them pick up a back-up template so they can sign up for 2v2 without having to monitor for clan-mate sign-ups. This could reduce the risk and coordination involved in Strat 2v2 sign-ups and maybe increase Strat 2v2 participation in CW.

If you support this idea, please vote for the Uservoice: https://warlight.uservoice.com/forums/77051-warzone-features/suggestions/44274852
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/12/2021 17:51:56


Rick Sanchez 
Level 59
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lavrovs clear and precise forum posts which would help drive effective decision making are a threat to warzone.

we should obviously wait because this is a new feature and thing will even themselves out slowly. /s
Best clan war timeslot ever: 10/12/2021 17:54:52


JK_3 
Level 61
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Curious how we got here, so let's go back a few time slots:

When the server crashed or got moved and the CW activity history got reset, it took multiple weeks for CW to return to normal. I'm not sure how CW calculates the expected activity for a slot, but it might be worth looking into a longer timeframe.

Proposal (just for the community to chew on, I'm not delusional):
- Remove MA MME LF LD and MME Commanders LD No Cards from the CW rotation
- If Strat 2v2 is selected for a time slot, also include a 1v1 template in the mix
- Guarantee at least 1 SE template (SEAD, SE1W, or COMBOMB) is in each time slot

I dont think MA MME and MME Com LD need to be completely removed, but there should always be a more casual slot. I usually only the SE templates, unless its the last slot of the day and no SE is available. On the topic of SE CW templates, the Combomb is too slow. I would like to see it with a 2+3 boot time instead of 3+5. But maybe I'm just too noob to need 3 minutes per turn for calculations and planning.

Otherwise we get a vicious cycle effect where a Strat 2v2 or MME LD template depresses participation, resulting in fewer templates for the same time slot 24h later, resulting in a higher likelihood of having a single unpopular template (i.e., no SE), and it goes on until luck brings SE back into the mix.

I love feedback loops that ruin everything 🙃

You don't need a button for this. The site already knows you navigated to the Clan War page for the time slot. It can figure out interest from that.

Sure, the site keeps track of it, but would anyone ever (get a chance) to look at that number?

You could plausibly have a Clan War system with the following UX:
- You see checkboxes next to every template available for the time slot and can pick which ones you're available for
- You see a single total sign-up counter and a list of your signed-up clanmates only (maybe with templates selected)
- Min-weight network matching matchmakes players into teams with some other combinatorial optimization managing template assignment so that unpopular templates don't get totally neglected (this would leave much fewer spares)
- Players get rated at the team level so individual match quality is universally high except at the edges, with most players having close to 50% win rates (this solves the Ursus problem, where only clans with high average skill actually benefit from high-skill players' elevated win rates)
- For team templates, you could get paired with players from another clan (but the system would prefer matchmaking within a clan)

+4

There's no realistic chance such a Clan War system would ever get implemented first-party, so maybe we could build a RT CLOT event that solves the RT participation problem by taking a cue from CW and only being joinable at select times (maybe just once a week to begin with).
The problem with doing that is that it splits participation across 2 events. And I'm not sure how much players would even be interested in that. I wonder how much players play CW for it being a cool RT game system and how much play CW cause it either has idle rewards or just helps their clan.
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