TL;DR: Free wins, in-clan team-matching, and matchmaking order appear to be deterministic and consistent across time slots, and I think it's somehow based on a relatively stable and persistent property of user accounts. 1000 coins to whoever figures out exactly how all this works!
Not entirely sure what dictates who gets the point, but likely it's either the first person, or first two people in the 2v2 template
I don't think it's this. Afaict, the free win goes to the first team in the clan for which matchmaking is attempted [or maybe the last], so it depends on the way players are sorted internally within a clan during matchmaking time. (The Clan War time slots list players within clans alphabetically, but that's not the same ordering that Clan Wars uses when ordering players within clans for matchmaking.)
We can figure out this sorting logic (within a clan) by looking at the outcomes of time slots where one clan (usually M'Hunters, MASTERs, or yolo) has a bunch of sign-ups on one template. E.g., if M'Hunters has 3 people sign up, one of them gets matched up with MASTER clan, one gets matched up with CORP, and another gets matched up with Cats, then we can infer the matchmaking-time sorting between the 3 M'Hunters sign-ups (i.e., that the one who got paired with a MASTER got sorted before the other two). If this sorting is consistent across time slots, we can further infer that sorting within clans is deterministic and likely not a property of sign-up times (since that would behave more randomly).
Here's the rough implied sorting for M'Hunters in a few recent time slots, based on the current CW ratings of the clans they got paired with (which likely aren't the same as when matchmaking occurred, but the rough ordering is likely preserved):
1270: Gudberg > Son of Gib, Juan, TFK > Smahik > Sanguinius
1269: Hazlenut > AJ Chiller > Magician Reversed > Grandpa Richard, Stonewall > Jacob the Restless
1263: Gudberg > TFK > Gincompetent > Hector > forksandwich > Wonkier
1251: Gudberg > Emeffer > Gincompetent > forksandwich > Grandpa Richard > Jacob the Restless > Stonewall
Notice the patterns? Gudberg consistently gets paired eariler (with higher-rated opponent clans). Same players show up in roughly similar places (Jacob/Richard/Stonewall near the bottom, TFK near the top).
Here's more patterns:
slot 1270's game ordering, in terms of M'H players: Gudberg, Son of Gib, TFK, Juan, Smahik, Sanguinius
slot 1269's game ordering: Hazlenut, Magician Reversed, AJ Chiller, Stonewall, Grandpa Richard, Jacob the Restless
slot 1263's game ordering: TFK, Gincompetent, Hector, forksandwich, Wonkier, Gudberg(???)
slot 1251's game ordering: Gudberg, Ugly Emeffer, Gincompetent, forksandwich, Stonewall, Grandpa Richard, Jacob the Restless
There's some rough correspondence between the ordering of these games and my inferred internal sorting at matchmaking time of M'Hunters players. In fact, these games might be roughly displayed in the order they were paired at matchmaking time. For Slot 1263, here's the various orders of the M'Hunters games (in terms of players):
in display order: TFK, Gincompetent, Hector, forksandwich, Wonkier, Gudberg
in game ID order: Gudberg (28469941), TFK (28469942), Gincompetent (28469943), Hector (28469944), forksandwich (28469945), Wonkier (28469946)
I don't know why display order puts Gudberg's game last when it was the first created. It may be due to some quirk of something (hashing?).
But anyhow, the ordering of players within clans during Clan Wars matchmaking (and consequently allocation of stuff like free games) appears to be deterministic. I can't tell what drives it, though- doesn't seem to be player level, QM rating, win count, game count, or win rate. It may be based on username or player ID hashing or just some quirk of whatever sorting algorithm the system uses to sort by clan war rating.
If anyone wants to figure out exactly how Clan Wars sorts players within clans at matchmaking times:
1) I'm offering a 1000 coin reward to anyone if you can work out (in pseudocode) how Clan Wars matchmaking works (including how it allocates free wins and sorts players within clans)
2) Here's the rough ordering hints of players within M'Hunters for the time slots I looked at, based on the order in which their games showed up (probably more accurate than going by current ratings of their opponent clans):
Gudberg > Son of Gib > The Forbidden Koala > Juan > Smahik > Sanguinius
Hazlenut > Magician Reversed > AJ Chiller > Stonewall > Grandpa Richard > Jacob the Restless
Gudberg > The Forbidden Koala > Gincompetent > Hector_of_Troy > forksandwich > Wonkier
Gudberg > Ugly Emeffer > Gincompetent > forksandwich > Stonewall > Grandpa Richard > Jacob the Restless
So whatever deterministic sorting there exists, has to be roughly consistent with the above ordering at the times those time slots were created. What would cause Gudberg to be consistently sorted before all those other players, and Jacob to be consistently sorted near the end? My working hypothesis, given the lack of any contradiction in the above 4 orders, is that it's based on some property of a CW player that stays relatively consistent during a single season (prior season performance?).
More evidence that:
1) In-clan team-matching is based on the same player ordering logic that is used for general CW matchmaking
2) In-clan team-matching is based on some relatively stable property of accounts
In time slot 1267 (https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1267
), the following MASTERs players signed up for 2v2:
Grizzlis, Timinator, Master USA, Black Dragon
Grizzlis and Timinator got paired and got a game, while Master USA and Black Dragon did not.
In time slot 1171 (https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1171
), the sign ups from MASTERs were:
Black Dragon, Grizzlis, Master Ryiro, Timinator
Grizzlis and Timinator again got paired and got a game, which was created earlier (and is displayed before) the game for the Black Dragon/Master Ryiro pairing.
In time slot 1135 (https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=6&Timeslot=1135
), Timinator ranks highly in the implied sorting of MASTERs based on game ID (2nd after Widz):
display order: Widzisz > Timinator > Sephiroth > MWL > Dirkules > Crazy > adrenaline
game ID: Widzisz (28251024) > Timinator (28251025)
> Sephiroth (28251026) > MWL (28251027) > Crazy (28251028) > adrenaline (28251029)
> Dirkules (28251030)
Here's the implied ranking one season earlier (https://www.warzone.com/Clans/War?ID=5&Timeslot=1009
display order: Motoki > Forsaken > Rufus > Dirkules > sloppyfatginger > Timinator > adrenaline
game ID: Motoki (28033444) > Forsaken (28033445) > Rufus (28033446) > Dirkules (28033447)
> sloppyfatginger (28033448) > Timinator (28033449)
> adrenaline (28033450)
Something interesting happened between slots 1009 in season 5 and 1135 in season 6- Timinator and adrenaline overtook Dirkules in the internal ranking. I wonder what happened.
Edited 10/8/2021 22:47:35