Current status of the election (~15min). TL;DR: Biden landslide is obviously out of the picture. We do not know who has won. It comes down to the wire.
The rest are just notes I'm taking while listening to the podcast, so this is mostly Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot)'s analysis.
Arizona has been called for Biden by Associated Press and Fox News but not yet ABC.
Wisconsin: we expect results to be mostly in Wednesday morning, mainly waiting on Milwaukee
Michigan: we expect results results to come in sometime Wednesday
Pennsylvania: expect to take until Friday to report all results
Georgia: expect rough results @ noon on Wednesday
Likely blue shift coming from not-yet-counted mail-in ballots + urban areas (Milwaukee, Atlanta, etc.).
"Tea leaves" from Upper Midwest states:
WI - lots of absentees left to count in Milwaukee, Trump ahead by only 3-4 pts at time of podcast, so WI deficit is not particularly daunting
PA - suburban and urban counties (e.g., Harrisburg and Scranton area) bode will for Biden to some extent as he's outperforming Clinton by about 5pts; but this isn't happening consistently across the rest of the state, so cautious optimism for Biden thereSenate is not going to go Democratic
, most likely. They have lost in AL (predictable), likely ME, AZ not called, NC looking good for Tillis, IA projected for Ernst (R), so Dems do not have the opportunities they need to get a majority. Still too soon to call but unlikely that Dems get Senate.
and of course, House has been called for Dems
In other news, CA passed Prop-22 (which reclassifies Uber/Lyft/etc. drivers back as independent contractors, undoing the changes from AB-5) and three states have voted tonight to legalize weed.