I bet that Spain will win. From Google Translate of Spanish newspapers it seems that Spain is pushing businesses to leave Catalonia. This is just the first step.
Not all Catalans hate Spain or want to leave it. More importantly non-Catalan Spaniards are getting really mad at Catalans for hating Spain and Spaniards. And...there are a lot more non-Catalan Spaniards than Catalan ones.
Edited 10/6/2017 19:59:37
Spanish Cops Are Brutalizing Citizens For Voting: 10/6/2017 20:26:31
^^^What Spain will probably try is forced assimilation, not genocide. Without assimilation the "Desafio Independentista" isn't going to improve. So Spain will probably take over the schools so that kids grow up as Spaniards instead of Catalan independence supporters.
@Njord Yes. However whenever there are more than two tribes genocide can be unprofitable.
Edited 10/6/2017 21:07:37
Spanish Cops Are Brutalizing Citizens For Voting: 10/6/2017 21:03:44
you've absolutely failed to prove why repression works. On the one hand, there's the evidence of the Soviet Union falling, as well as Western Imperialism. Your argument is "there's this one town in this one country that's not exactly Serbia, but it's in the part of another country that's sympathetic to Serbia and the town has a lot of Serbs in it, but not quite the majority".
which side holds more weight?
Spanish Cops Are Brutalizing Citizens For Voting: 10/6/2017 21:09:21
@Ox Genocides are possible. However they are usually not profitable. Through genocide a tribe has basically removed the international norm of not commiting genocides. That can haunt them in the long run even if they actually manage to kill everyone else.
BiH is a messed up state. Republika Srpska is basically a semi-state. Serbs have in fact partly won in the Bosnian War through ethnic cleansing even if they completely lost the Croatian War of Independence.
Edited 10/6/2017 21:11:48
Spanish Cops Are Brutalizing Citizens For Voting: 10/6/2017 21:15:19
@Njord They won't. Instead they will arrest the pro-independence leaders, put someone like Rivera in charge of Catalonia and Hispanize it through education and immigration (Spaniards from other parts of Spain settling in Catalonia which is what happened naturally under Franco for economic reasons).
Spanish Cops Are Brutalizing Citizens For Voting: 10/6/2017 22:05:18