Division Q2 - Week 4

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Finished Games

26.02.2017
12977265 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated German Warlords (m7)

27.02.2017
12843231 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Bear+orionaux) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)
12942442 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

28.02.2017
12843238 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese) defeated Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
12948269 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) defeated Preußen Garde (Naglfar)

01.03.2017
12931944 1v1 Guiroma: CORP (Tjoex) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)

02.03.2017
12868643 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeated 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife)

03.03.2017
12968947 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani)
12927777 1v1 Old Strat ME: CORP (mm3100) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)
12862277 1v1 Old Strat ME: Lu Fredd (MrJimmy) defeated Preußen Garde (Stirax)

04.03.2017
12921281 1v1 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Cait Sith) defeated Lu Fredd (moffel38)
12946138 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)
12963927 2v2 Guiroma: Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi) defeated Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien)

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Commentary

7th Heaven
Notes three wins, but also one loss. Yet another loss on 1v1 Volcano Island, but also finally manages to win a game on this template. Still far above the reach of their opponents: Sits at (3-0) on 2v2 Guiroma, (4-0) on 1v1 Old Strat ME (last game against Lu Fredd), finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (5-0) result.

CORP
Wins their first games on 3v3 ROR and 1v1 Volcano Island. Finishes 1v1 Old Strat ME with a good (4-1) and 1v1 Guiroma with a decent (3-2). No news from 2v2 Guiroma, where we wait for Ven to come back. I feel I won't be objective enough talking more about CORP's results, so I'll leave it at that.

Dutch Forever
Another bad week, with 3 losses and no wins. This includes one 3v3, one 2v2 and one 1v1 (Volcano Island). Clan's just one game away from finishing 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 Old Strat ME each, being at (3-1) and (1-3) in them, respectively. They have yet to win a team game((0-3) on 2v2 Guiroma, having matches remaining against CORP and German Warlords), and we all know how precious team formats are.

German Warlords
Now they are only 2 points away to be mathematically eliminated from contest for 1st place. Another bad week, losing a 3v3, two 1v1s and winning only one 1v1. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (2-3) result, which is the most wins they have on a single template. They are also first to finish two games on 3v3 Rome, unfortunately both are losses. (0-4) 1v1 Old Strat ME doesn't look likely to turn into (1-4), and (1-2) on Volcano Island is stil before playing both CORP and 7th Heaven.

Lu Fredd
Another good week, with four wins and one loss. Overally they do really well so far and are still vying for the 2nd place, and that might be decided by 3v3 games - which _will_ finish last and they are worth most.
Unfortunately they are (0-4) on Guiroma (remaining game against Dutch (the only template this clan does well at), and on all but one template they have a game remaining against 7th Heaven, although the current (3-1) on Old Strat ME and (3-0) on Volcano Island look very solid.

Preußen Garde
3rd of march is a black day for Preußen Garde - they finish three games and all three are losses. Abysmal week for them, winning 1 game and losing 4, which decisively puts them behind top three clans of the division. Finishes 1v1 Guiroma with (1-4) result.

Looking at the graph, there is a big dropoff between the three: 7th Heaven, CORP, Lu Fredd and another three: Preußen Garde, Dutch Forever, German Warlords (all the worst nationalists, one would say). Actually 7th Heaven is very much ahead of the other two as well.

1v1 Guiroma will likely be the first format to finish, as it's only two games away from completion. Next up is 1v1 Old Strat ME as it has all games already created.

Edited 3/9/2017 16:28:37

hey you have wrong LuFredd player in guiroma template :) first four games (those that are finished) were played by moffel38, after he got booted from his first two games we replaced him with Double D. but sadly Double D. got only the last game in guiroma, so the games finished last week were still played by moffel38

Thanks, fixed that.

also i think you're right in that the 2nd place will likely be decided in 3v3s, actually it's possible that LuFredd vs. CORP 3v3 might be the deciding game (well if we can keep up because as you said we have propably bit harder games than CORP left so it's possible that you can secure then 2nd position without that win too) as it gives the winner 5 points while lowering losers max points by 5

Division Q2 - Week 5

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Finished games

2016.03.05

12843235 3v3 Deadman's Rome: 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeated CORP (Baer+The Shots+orionaux)

2016.03.06

13034654 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) defeated German Warlords (Ulti)

2016.03.08

12843236 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde (Nina+Naram-Sin+cnxer) defeated Lu Fredd (Nobody+arrigal+ssese)

2016.03.10

13014467 1v1 Old Strat ME: 7th Heaven (Bahamut) defeated Lu Fredd (MrJimmy)
13028038 1v1 Volcano Island: 7th Heaven (Cloud Strife) defeated German Warlords (Janine)

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Commentary

Not a whole lot of games have finished this week - 1v1s are almost wrapped up and now mostly the usually slower team games have left.

7th Heaven maintains their insane winrate and wins 11 points from 3 finished games. Preußen has a nice week, upsetting Lu Fredd on DRoR and collecting a win on ME. Now it looks like that Preußen can fight for 3rd place in the division, as their max points still easily allow them to. Lu Fredd starts to take hits, although I already mentioned the worse of them. German Warlords continue to be everyone's punching bag, and Dutch don't finish any game this week. They seem locked on their current positions.

If I'm not mistaken, we are the first clan in all Q groups to secure a place in C. We are currently sitting at 62 points,while maximum points for Lu Fredd and CORP are 67 and 68 respectively. However, those 2 clans have yet to finish 3v3,2v2 and 1v1 game between them - which ammounts to total of 12 points. There is no theoretical variation of those results where both clans finish above 7th Heaven.

Congrats 7th Heaven!! You rock! :)


You were my favorites to win the whole division C anyways ;).

Edited 3/12/2017 22:46:55

Can add another two wins for 7th and a 2v2 guiroma sweep. We had our last two games finish just a bit ago.

That was quick! Congrats on the qualification to C.

Division Q2 - Week 6

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Finished Games

2017.03.12
12975054 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)
12975056 2v2 Guiroma: 7th Heaven (Alexander the Great+Cid Highwind) defeated Lu Fredd (max+kalati)

2017.03.13
1v1 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (surfpizza) defeated Lu Fredd (Double D.)

2017.03.14
3v3 Deadman's Rome: Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

2017.03.15
12843232 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde (Nina+Naram-Sin+cnxer) defeated Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
13097718 2v2 Guiroma: Dutch Forever (Master B+Lothorien) defeated German Warlords (Corvus5+Thoabear)

2017.03.16
13034653 1v1 Old Strat ME: Preußen Garde (Stirax) defeated Dutch Forever (Hendrik)

2017.03.17
12849655 2v2 Guiroma: German Warlords defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)
13098894 2v2 Guiroma: Lu Fredd (max+Kalati) defeated Preußen Garde (Olkani+Angi)

2017.03.18
13116377 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk) defeated German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

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Commentary

7th Heaven is now 2 points away from clinching first place of division Q2. CORP doesn't finish any games.

Lu Fredd has a so-so week, although they score two wins, they also lose two games, concluding 1v1 Guiroma with unspectacular 0-5 result. Being fifty-fifty on wins vs losses kind of widens the gap between 2nd and their 3rd.

Preußen has interesting week, because it has 2 wins against Dutch Forever and 2 losses on 2v2 Guiroma. As for tournament finishes they also deal in twos, because they finished two: 2v2 Guiroma with (2-3) (see? yet more twos) and 1v1 ME with... also 2-3. Pretty sure that their song of the week is this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSbBvKaM6sk

Dutch Forever finishes 1v1 Guiroma with good (4-1) result and wins on 3v3 DRome, but also gets a boot loss on 1v1 ME against [PG]. It seems that they are a one-template clan here having only won one game on each, except 1v1 Guiroma where they won as much as four.

German Warlords win their first team game (finally!), but they also lose 4 other team games, which puts them a whole tier behind other clans. They are now mathematically eliminated from finishing anywhere other than last place.

This week sees 1v1 Old Strat ME and 1v1 Guiroma wrapping up, while 1v1 Volcano Island and 2v2 Guiroma only now wait for CORP to finish (has 4 and 3 games to finish in them, respectively).

Overally the final results are more and more visible, clans are cementing at their positions, 7th Heaven as a clear winner, CORP with lots of unfinished games likely at second, Lu Fredd getting distanced from CORP, Preußen Garde only a bit worse than Lu Fredd, Dutch getting outclassed on all but one template and German Warlords handing out wins to anyone.

CORP with lots of unfinished games likely at second, Lu Fredd getting distanced from CORP

Is this you declaring that those unfinished games are expected to be wins for CORP? The stat sheet reads that Lu Fredd has won a higher % of points contested and will get 2nd at the current pace.

It is normal Onoma is biased in his analysis :P

haha gotcha :)

I think looking at contested points alone isn't enough, especially considering the actual matchups - which I payed attention to a few times in the updates.

Let's look at CORP's results so far:



As we can see, 7th Heaven - who are sitting at 91% in points contested and 90% winrate, being so far ahead everyone else it's not funny - is the only clan against which CORP played full set of games (or "played", since 2v2 Guiroma had 1 CORP player not joining, but that's not too weighty here). Here also CORP has 20% winrate against this clan - only 3 out of 18 dearly points gained.

Against everyone else though, there are very few matchups, out of which only two don't come from 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 ME! One is an auto-loss on 2v2 Guiroma (from the same player on the same template not joining), other is win against German Warlords on the DRome. This kind of speaks nothing about CORP players' skill there, however we know much more about other clans (since they have much more games finished): there is a one loss against Dutch Forever on 1v1 Guiroma - for [NL] it's the only template where they have more than 1 win after 4 out of 5 templates finished (except CORP matchup on 2v2 Guiroma). I do not expect them to break out from it, and I feel fairly safe to predict three losses against CORP incoming (assuming Ven will join and play his games). The one loss against Preußen Garde comes from Ven not joining his game, as said before, otherwise it's all wins. German Warlords do very poorly in this division, and CORP already has 3 wins against them, any CORP loss in remaining two games against [GER] would be a massive upset. Lu Fredd deserve their own write up - see below.

Templates-wise: we see a very good 80% winrate on 1v1 ME and decent 60% winrate on 1v1 Guiroma - the two finished templates. Other templates however, are super scarce in games. 1v1 Volcano Island has a lone game finished, which is CORP's only win against 7th Heaven. I sure expect more wins here. 3v3 Drome has loss against the best clan and win against the worst clan, which says nothing, but I do believe in CORP team doing well here. Just take my word for it. :P



One thing we immediately notice is that Lu Fredd has many more games finished than CORP. Second thing is: while CORP had all matches against 7th Heaven already one, Lu Fredd already has all matches against the "weaker" clans of the division done, only waiting to play CORP and 7th Heaven! Seems obvious that DD will have higher points contested if they have less games against the winner. ;P

Winrates aren't perfect against any of the clans there: 80% against [NL], 60% against Preußen, 80% against German Warlords. Although that's due to problems on 1v1 Guiroma, where one player got booted in 4 games and the replacement lost the last one, against [NL] (already said it's [NL]'s only "good" template), otherwise we would see two perfect winrates! It's much worse against CORP and 7th Heaven: a whole zero games won against those clans. It doesn't even look like a competition. But maybe there's a chance for DD: 1v1 Volcano Island is the only template where 7th Heaven has as many as two losses. Maybe Lu Fredd will score 3 points there? I don't expect destroying them on 3v3 DRome. CORP is a bit more volatile, since there's the Ven factor. I'll be, however, biased and say that CORP will win at least one remaining game against Lu Fredd. (:



Overally my prognosis for CORP results is as seen below:



I'm gonna be pessimistic and predict 0 wins for CORP on 2v2 Guiroma. Hopefully it won't happen though. Wins at Volcano Island are a no-brainer, and loss against Lu Fredd on it is here to spice things up. As I said, I believe in Dror (#trustMOTD). Overally 53 points.

Prognosis for Lu Fredd:



I don't know if Lucien Müller will win his games against both Cloud Strife and The Shots. That's an optimistic variant (pessimistic for my clan). No mercy at DRor though. So we can see 50 points there, which is just a bit less than what I predicted for CORP.

Actually you are right that my wording in update was biased, since it's actually a bit closer, as seen in this post. But possibility of DD overtaking CORP is not that big.

Division Q2 - Week 7

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Finished Games

13017791 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
13028037 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeats Preußen Garde (Naglfar)
13070395 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde defeats German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

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Commentary

Most games are behind us, so we're off for slow mode. This week seen only three games finishing.

CORP has a good week, scoring wins on VI (against Preußen) and DRome (against NL). Unfortunately we also see Ven taking his last, 7th vacation for period of four days. Not an efficient use of vacation if you ask me, and it still throws a big shadow on CORP's CL future.

Preußen Garde finished 1v1 Volcano Island with (2-3), losing against CORP and scores third win on ROR, against Germans.

Lu Fredd and 7th Heaven don't finish any games this week.

[NL]... as mentioned, a loss against CORP on 3v3 DRome.

Finally, German Warlords finish 3v3 DRome with (0-5) result this week, after game against Preußen Garde with predictable outcome.

Edited 3/26/2017 15:49:03

Division Q2 - Week 8

I changed clan so my updates aren't biased anymore. :) :)

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Finished Games (by template)

3v3 Deadman's Rome
13111040 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair)
13070394 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux)
13193130 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)

1v1 Volcano Island
13153790 CORP (The Shots) defeats Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)

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Commentary

(ok so listen up @Oh, this is for you!)

Well, this is a week of surprises. Firstly, Lu Fredd wins as many as two games on 3v3 Drome on last burst, scrapping 10 points off CORP and 7th Heaven!! Overally winning the most valued template with (4-1) result. This means that window of promotion for CORP is now way narrowed. Secondly, Ven came back and CORP's remaining 2v2 Guiroma is safer now, although - obviously - no new games finished here yet.

7th Heaven wins one and loses one, but at this point it doesn't mean anything for them anymore... except finally dropping below 90% points contested (were a bit below it after week 4, but that was just a fluke). Also, right now they have only one game left to finish stage 1.

Lu Fredd right now definitely picks up second place, with winrate and contested points higher than CORP's after their DRome finish. They now need one more win against CORP to assure promotion spot.

CORP falls to third, going 1-1 this week, losing on DRome and winning on VI. Now they need to perform very consistently to avoid relegation. And still lots of games before the end...

Preußen Garde and German Warlords don't finish any game this week. Currently they have mainly only games against CORP left.

Dutch Forever go (0-2) this week and now they have reverse clinched 5th place (have lower max points than 4th place's points gotten).

go go power-corps!

thanks Onoma for the updates. biased or not, they are realy good and informative updates. (i personaly like them to be a bit biased)

tth Heaven have the spot.
now it a run between Lu Fredd and CORP. for Nr.2 .

i'm excited to se the first results from corps 2v2's.

it'll be more interesting this way though, would've been boring if this group was as straighforward as ppl predicted, much more interesting to have close fight for the 2nd spot till the end

Division Q2 - Week 9

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Finished Games:

03.04
12868641 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) defeated CORP (The Shots)

08.04
13210246 1v1 Volcano Island: Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller) defeated CORP (The Shots)

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Commentary

So only two games finished, but what games these were! CORP tanked their two remaining games on Volcano Island - including important match against Lu Fredd, and a match against... German Warlords, for whom it's fifth win total in this season. CORP's max points are only four more than DD's total points.
So I was wrong in the previous update and actually CORP still has a tiny chance of promoting. However DD looks fairly safe on their promotion spot.

Overally, this is how results on each template look so far:

3v3 Deadman's Rome
(4-1) Lu Fredd, (3-1) 7th Heaven, (3-0) Preußen Garde, (2-2) CORP, (1-4) Dutch Forever, (0-5) German Warlords

Lu Fredd finished with an almost perfect score. 7th Heaven and CORP both play against Preußen Garden and these are the last two games remaining on the template. Preußen still didn't lose a game on DRome! If they try hard they might win the tournament...

2v2 Guiroma
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (3-1) Lu Fredd, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-3) German Warlords, (1-3) Dutch Forever, (0-2) CORP

Yeah... Ven held up whole tourney for a month, so there's a lot left to happen here. 7th Heaven and Preußen finished all their games, but everyone else has a match with CORP in advance. DD can go 4-1 and block CORP out of promotion. CORP can win the three games and finally promote. German Warlords might win their sixth game of the season. How it will finish, we will get to know in June!

1v1 Guiroma
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (4-1) Dutch Forever, (3-2) CORP, (2-3) German Warlords, (1-4) Preußen Garde, (0-5) Lu Fredd

It's long finished, so just a recap. It's one of three tournament sweeps for 7th Heaven, the template that makes up for 59% of Dutch points, and only failure of Lu Fredd (boots) - everywhere else they have at least three wins.

1v1 ME WR
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (4-1) CORP, (3-2) Lu Fredd, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-4) Dutch Forever, (0-5) German Warlords

The most "typical" results here, with 7th Heaven destroying their competition utterly, DD taking their three wins, Dutch and Germans on the same places as in the overall results. Long finished as well.

1v1 Volcano Island
(4-0) Lu Fredd, (3-2) CORP, (2-2) 7th Heaven, (2-3) German Warlords, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-4) Dutch Forever

The last game is DD against 7th ongoing, with very advanced psychological warfare on the game chat. ;) DD already won this tournament. It's the best template for German Warlords and weakest for 7th Heaven.

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Games Left to Finish Q2

3v3 DRome
Preußen Garde vs CORP
Preußen Garde vs 7th Heaven

2v2 Guiroma
CORP vs Dutch Forever
CORP vs Lu Fredd
CORP vs German Warlords

1v1 Volcano Island
Lu Fredd vs 7th Heaven

volcano is decide alrdy over a week , i even communicate with other ppls and in my ops ist a shame that a clan with so many top Player are such "bad losers"... after games decided stalling only as best as possible and boot out finally aswell can happens if the stall want to be on Maximum....

missing something there...., unlucky its even a represant of the whole clan but well its a game and free to do whatever everyone want... :/