i know the theory behind it, and since i saw the % of caucasus being taken on first turn isn't 0 i would like to know the exact number just to have an idea of roughly how many times people have triple picked it in 4000 games

There was exactly one game each of Australia and Caucasus being completed in the first turn.

^ Makes sense. For Australia to be a viable FTB, you need Indonesia's start to be in Papua New Guinea or Malaysia (2/5 of the time), Antarctica's start to be in Scott (1/4 of the time), and Australia's start to be in New Southwales or South Australia (2/6 or 1/3 of the time). Even ignoring the facts that you can't have a wasteland in Australia, that you need the Australian start to be in South Australia if the Indonesian start is in Papua New Guinea, and that you need a certain bit of luck to make this work, that's just going to be possible 3.2% of the time.

But factoring those in:

125/131 * 124/130 * 123/129 * 122/128 * 121/127 * 120/126 * 119/125 = 71.5% chance that none of the 7 wastelands end up being in Australia

25% chance of your Antarctica start being in Scott

20% chance of your Indonesia start being in Malaysia

20% chance of your Indonesia start being in Papua New Guinea

33% chance of your Australia start being in New Southwales or South Australia

16.7% chance of your Australia start being South Australia

Also, you won't have a single 4v2 possible unless you want to increase the # of 2v2s you have to make. On top of that, you have to make at least one 2v2 attack because you only have 17 armies possible (that's 14 mobile armies) in the first turn and you need to attack at least 5 territories with them. Assuming you take the path of highest probability:

P(3v2) ^ 4 * P(2v2) = .81 ^ 4 * .12 = 5.2% chance of getting the FTB even after you got the lucky starts.

That comes out to a total probability of:

.712 * (.2 * .33 + .2 * .167) * .052 = .0036, or about 4 in a thousand. So you need to play about 250 games on that map in Strategic 1v1 settings for an Australia FTB to even be possible. And then you need to worry about colliding picks with your opponent. Damn.

Here is the game with the Australia FTB: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=8774607

konglaide took the bonus but lost to Motm (who captured a Southeast Asia FTB).


Here is the game with the Caucasus FTB: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=8341531

Orang Mutan took the bonus and beat Général Charles De Gaulle.

I don't see how this is helpful. Games vary too widely.

Just curious, does the Australia FTB game count as completing the Australia bonus twice, since Green took it on the second to last turn of the game?

Benjamin628: No, for these numbers I am only county the first time per game a particular bonus is captured.

Cornucopia: Sorry, maybe my next post will be as helpful as yours.

Yeah I doubt that, you don't seem to post anything helpful. Take this topic for example. It's just you flaunting your skills with compiling data; it has no real application.

EDIT: If you want to do something helpful, maybe give out some game tips. All this is is a list of irrelevant numbers. How about you try harder.

Edited 2015-06-24 06:06:52

I find these irrelevant numbers quite interesting

btw the first game linked by smileyleg is just EPIC

If you don't like this thread, don't read it Cornucopia. There are enough people who are interested in these numbers.

cornucopia down, trminator up! I like these numbers, though I don't play the 1vs1 ladder. And I liked watching those two games linked. Good job!

Thanks. Now if only I could impress Cornucopia...

@ Cornucopia: If nobody cared about these numbers and data, this thread wouldn't be notable. Who wouldn't want to do analysis of the 1v1 ladder?

I've been playing a bit with the numbers.
Unless I did something terribly wrong, I got:

On average how many bonuses are captured in given turn:

T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6+	total
0.1565	1.5085	0.9484	0.7608	0.6087	3.4061	7.3889

Which frankly I find that a bit odd. Surprised so few bonuses captured turn 3+, so many few total, especially considering those numbers are joint for 2 players. Maybe some games simply ended early, but still, only 3,37 in first 4 turns?

Widzisz: your averages look correct.

I think it may seem a little low at first, and it's definitely possible I made another mistake, but the more I think of it the more it makes sense.

This is among better players and better players will often have countering picks and picks which border each other immediately, etc.

As it stands it shows each player has an average of 1.7 bonuses after turn 4, which seems about right to me. Often you can't safely complete your 3 bonuses in the first 4 turns--doing so typically requires almost all of your armies to be used for expansion which often isn't an option.

Widzisz, you included Hawaii, Japan, Alaska and Korea in your calculations. Excluding these we get the following numbers:

T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6+	total
0.1565	1.5082	0.9446	0.7474	0.5814	3.0569	6.9950

They seem right. Turn 2 is common for 2 bonuses, then turn 3 is 1 bonus, turn 4 would have to be an outside expansion or bad luck or just bad expansion. By turn 5 you've usually met your opponent on a border, so outside expansion is low. 3.37 sounds correct.

Widzisz, you included Hawaii, Japan, Alaska and Korea in your calculations.

Yea.

Lolowut, it's for both players total. I always thought typical strategy is to capture 1st bonus 1st/2nd turn, and the rest before turn 4, 5 if unlucky. So for first 5 turns it should be close to 6 bonuses, while on average it's below 4 (3.93, this mean on average not even 2 bonuses per player).

Edited 2015-06-24 22:21:35

Ah. I see what you mean now. Consider that the majority of players on the ladder don't play it correctly in the first place.

Small request, any chance to get games duration? I mean "how many games ended turn X".