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When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 13:14:29

smileyleg 
Level 61
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BONUS	        TOTAL	T 1	T 2	T 3	T 4	T 5	T 6+	AVG
Scandinavian 	59.3	5.8	35.9	22.2	11.7	7.0	17.4	3.9
Antarctica	57.8	4.2	34.9	23.5	11.4	5.7	20.3	4.1
Central America	56.1	5.8	32.9	20.4	12.2	6.2	22.5	4.3
South America	52.2	0.3	24.3	13.1	15.0	10.2	37.1	5.3
Southeast Asia	51.1	7.8	21.4	17.7	11.1	9.6	32.5	5.2
West Russia	46.6	1.3	18.9	12.3	13.7	11.0	42.7	5.8
West Africa	43.0	1.0	22.1	10.4	11.5	10.7	44.2	6.0
Indonesia	42.7	0.3	24.1	14.3	13.0	9.3	38.9	5.7
East China	41.0	1.2	21.0	16.7	11.7	9.4	40.0	5.8
Central Russia	40.1	0.8	29.4	15.4	10.1	9.0	35.3	5.4
East Africa	33.1	0.6	21.3	13.3	12.5	8.5	43.8	6.4
Australia	29.4	0.1	17.4	6.3	8.1	12.0	56.1	7.1
Greenland	22.9	0.0	11.4	9.1	11.0	10.0	58.6	7.5
Hawaii	        22.6	0.0	0.1	1.2	4.7	9.0	84.9	9.9
Caucasus	20.9	0.1	7.4	3.7	8.1	8.4	72.4	9.0
South Africa	18.3	0.3	1.1	2.0	5.0	6.1	85.5	9.9
West China	15.5	0.0	2.6	2.7	6.1	6.5	82.1	10.2
North Africa	14.8	0.7	6.0	3.4	5.7	4.4	79.9	10.2
West US	        13.8	0.0	0.5	1.3	4.5	6.5	87.3	10.5
Japan	        11.6	0.0	0.0	0.9	2.4	6.0	90.8	11.5
Europe	        11.3	0.0	0.7	0.7	1.3	5.3	92.1	11.4
East US	        8.8	0.0	0.8	0.6	3.9	4.8	89.9	12.0
Canada	        8.3	0.0	1.2	1.2	3.0	3.9	90.7	12.4
Middle East	7.6	0.0	0.7	1.3	2.9	3.9	91.2	12.0
East Russia	4.9	0.0	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	89.9	12.2
Alaska	        3.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0	14.6
Korea	        1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0	15.0


TOTAL = % of games bonus is taken (ever)
T 1   = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 1
T 2   = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 2
T 3   = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 3
T 4   = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 4
T 5   = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 5
T 6+  = When bonus is taken, % of games in Turn 6 or later
AVG   = When bonus is taken, average turn number



You can see the original numbers were quite off (stupid mistake). I have also added Hawaii, Japan, Alaska, and Korea. The data comes from about 4,000 games in the last 18 months between players who were in the top 100 at the time I ran it.

Also, I posted the code on GitHub. Be warned it's very messy!

https://github.com/dbellandi/warlight-stuff
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 14:42:23


knyte 
Level 58
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Thanks for adding Japan/etc. I was curious about those.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 14:47:30


Benjamin628 
Level 59
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How can Korea be taken in 1.4% of games when its taken 100% of the time in turn 6+ ?
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 14:57:38

smileyleg 
Level 61
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I changed those columns to be: of the games this bonus is taken, it is taken in this turn this percent of the time.

So all the T columns should add up to 100% for each bonus (sans rounding errors).
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 14:58:44


Ace Windu 
Level 56
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100% of the times it's captured, it's captured after turn 5. It is not captured 100% of the time.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 15:03:42


Benjamin628 
Level 59
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I understand now.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 15:08:04


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Interesting, SEA is the most common FTB. I guess that makes sense with 4 different bonuses to make it with. I suppose this it what really raises Indonesia and East China's value as a turn 2+ bonus.

The top 4 are not shocking at all. I'm a little surprised Alaska > Korea, but can kinda see why that would be the case. The most common 5 is Australia. Yay. Totally makes sense. Australia is a wonderful 5 and everyone should use it more often.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 15:27:06


Krzysztof 
Level 66
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Just wondering who dared to take australia or caucasus in first turn
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 15:33:55


Sephiroth 
Level 60
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i would like to see the statistics from games among people who have never been in the top 100

btw, in how many games exactly was caucasus taken in the first turn?

Edited 6/23/2015 15:38:21
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 18:05:12

JSA 
Level 59
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4,000 games taken into consideration. Australia taken 29.4% of the time. Caucasus is taken 20.9% of the time. So Australia was taken in roughly 1176 games. Caucasus was taken in roughly 836 games. Both were taken in the first turn only .1% of the time they were taken. Basically, for every game that they are taken, they are taken in the first turn 1 out of 1000 games. Since each was taken only around 1000 games, we can assume that they each were only taken one time in the first turn.

To actually take a 6 territory bonus first turn requires a great deal of luck. To break it down: 4 3v2 attacks, and 1 2v2 attack. 80% of the time, a 3v2 will work. A 2v2 works 12% of the time. We can just do .8^4 * .12 to find the probability of taking a 6 territory bonus first turn. This comes out to 4.9%, meaning that for every attempt to take Australia and Caucasus first turn, they will be completed 1 in 20 times.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 21:12:11


Sephiroth 
Level 60
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i know the theory behind it, and since i saw the % of caucasus being taken on first turn isn't 0 i would like to know the exact number just to have an idea of roughly how many times people have triple picked it in 4000 games
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 21:35:08

smileyleg 
Level 61
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There was exactly one game each of Australia and Caucasus being completed in the first turn.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/23/2015 23:41:32


knyte 
Level 58
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^ Makes sense. For Australia to be a viable FTB, you need Indonesia's start to be in Papua New Guinea or Malaysia (2/5 of the time), Antarctica's start to be in Scott (1/4 of the time), and Australia's start to be in New Southwales or South Australia (2/6 or 1/3 of the time). Even ignoring the facts that you can't have a wasteland in Australia, that you need the Australian start to be in South Australia if the Indonesian start is in Papua New Guinea, and that you need a certain bit of luck to make this work, that's just going to be possible 3.2% of the time.

But factoring those in:

125/131 * 124/130 * 123/129 * 122/128 * 121/127 * 120/126 * 119/125 = 71.5% chance that none of the 7 wastelands end up being in Australia

25% chance of your Antarctica start being in Scott

20% chance of your Indonesia start being in Malaysia

20% chance of your Indonesia start being in Papua New Guinea

33% chance of your Australia start being in New Southwales or South Australia

16.7% chance of your Australia start being South Australia

Also, you won't have a single 4v2 possible unless you want to increase the # of 2v2s you have to make. On top of that, you have to make at least one 2v2 attack because you only have 17 armies possible (that's 14 mobile armies) in the first turn and you need to attack at least 5 territories with them. Assuming you take the path of highest probability:

P(3v2) ^ 4 * P(2v2) = .81 ^ 4 * .12 = 5.2% chance of getting the FTB even after you got the lucky starts.

That comes out to a total probability of:

.712 * (.2 * .33 + .2 * .167) * .052 = .0036, or about 4 in a thousand. So you need to play about 250 games on that map in Strategic 1v1 settings for an Australia FTB to even be possible. And then you need to worry about colliding picks with your opponent. Damn.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 00:09:00

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Here is the game with the Australia FTB: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=8774607

konglaide took the bonus but lost to Motm (who captured a Southeast Asia FTB).


Here is the game with the Caucasus FTB: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=8341531

Orang Mutan took the bonus and beat Général Charles De Gaulle.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 04:43:22

Cornucopia
Level 31
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I don't see how this is helpful. Games vary too widely.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 04:47:16


Benjamin628 
Level 59
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Just curious, does the Australia FTB game count as completing the Australia bonus twice, since Green took it on the second to last turn of the game?
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 05:29:52

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Benjamin628: No, for these numbers I am only county the first time per game a particular bonus is captured.

Cornucopia: Sorry, maybe my next post will be as helpful as yours.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 06:01:25

Cornucopia
Level 31
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Yeah I doubt that, you don't seem to post anything helpful. Take this topic for example. It's just you flaunting your skills with compiling data; it has no real application.

EDIT: If you want to do something helpful, maybe give out some game tips. All this is is a list of irrelevant numbers. How about you try harder.

Edited 6/24/2015 06:06:52
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 07:54:17


Sephiroth 
Level 60
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I find these irrelevant numbers quite interesting

btw the first game linked by smileyleg is just EPIC
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 11:33:11


Timinator • apex 
Level 64
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If you don't like this thread, don't read it Cornucopia. There are enough people who are interested in these numbers.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 14:27:04

Brotherdan 
Level 58
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cornucopia down, trminator up! I like these numbers, though I don't play the 1vs1 ladder. And I liked watching those two games linked. Good job!
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 15:20:57

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Thanks. Now if only I could impress Cornucopia...
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 19:19:53

DanWL 
Level 62
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@ Cornucopia: If nobody cared about these numbers and data, this thread wouldn't be notable. Who wouldn't want to do analysis of the 1v1 ladder?
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 20:38:26

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
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I've been playing a bit with the numbers.
Unless I did something terribly wrong, I got:

On average how many bonuses are captured in given turn:
T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6+	total
0.1565	1.5085	0.9484	0.7608	0.6087	3.4061	7.3889

Which frankly I find that a bit odd. Surprised so few bonuses captured turn 3+, so many few total, especially considering those numbers are joint for 2 players. Maybe some games simply ended early, but still, only 3,37 in first 4 turns?
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 21:20:00

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Widzisz: your averages look correct.

I think it may seem a little low at first, and it's definitely possible I made another mistake, but the more I think of it the more it makes sense.

This is among better players and better players will often have countering picks and picks which border each other immediately, etc.

As it stands it shows each player has an average of 1.7 bonuses after turn 4, which seems about right to me. Often you can't safely complete your 3 bonuses in the first 4 turns--doing so typically requires almost all of your armies to be used for expansion which often isn't an option.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 21:32:46


timon92 
Level 62
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Widzisz, you included Hawaii, Japan, Alaska and Korea in your calculations. Excluding these we get the following numbers:
T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6+	total
0.1565	1.5082	0.9446	0.7474	0.5814	3.0569	6.9950
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 21:32:56


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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They seem right. Turn 2 is common for 2 bonuses, then turn 3 is 1 bonus, turn 4 would have to be an outside expansion or bad luck or just bad expansion. By turn 5 you've usually met your opponent on a border, so outside expansion is low. 3.37 sounds correct.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 22:19:33

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
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Widzisz, you included Hawaii, Japan, Alaska and Korea in your calculations.

Yea.

Lolowut, it's for both players total. I always thought typical strategy is to capture 1st bonus 1st/2nd turn, and the rest before turn 4, 5 if unlucky. So for first 5 turns it should be close to 6 bonuses, while on average it's below 4 (3.93, this mean on average not even 2 bonuses per player).

Edited 6/24/2015 22:21:35
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/24/2015 22:20:40


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Ah. I see what you mean now. Consider that the majority of players on the ladder don't play it correctly in the first place.
When bonuses are captured? Fixed Analysis + Code: 6/25/2015 12:29:33

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
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Small request, any chance to get games duration? I mean "how many games ended turn X".
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