Mmph I don't know whether to trust you or not -_- at least now we have something to work with. For now vote Frank.

Oooo draw for first match of WCC 2014. I can tell I'm gonna get absolutely no sleep this month...

Ok. I'm following Viegar's lead here, but considering he is high on my suspect list, if we find Frank is not a wolf, I will immediately push for a Viegar's lynch.

Vote: Frankdeslimste

I dunno, We gotta find out.

Ok I've thought about this a little bit more. The way I see it there are 4 possibilities. First, Veigar and his seer are telling the truth. Second, Veigar is telling the truth, but his seer informant is a lying wolf. Third, Veigar is a lying wolf, and there is no need for a seer. Fourth, Veigar himself could be a seer.

Gonna do another little statistical analysis here. (keep in mind that this doesn't take into account anything anybody has said)

Let's check out both best and worst case proposed scenarios, 5 and 8 wolves. There are 20 people left (if I've been keeping track correctly), so that means that, respectively, there are 15 and 12 villagers/specials left.

Best case:
Veigar + Seer both are villagers/specials: 15/20*14/19 = 55.3% chance.
Veigar is a wolf: 5/20 = 25% chance.
Veigar is a villager but his seer is a wolf: 15/20*5/19 = 19.7% chance.
Veigar being a seer is just a special case of the first scenario.
In this case, 55.3% of the time we should follow Veigar's advice, and 44.7% of the time we shouldn't.

Worst case:
Veigar + Seer both are villagers/specials: 12/20*11/19 = 34.7% chance.
Veigar is a wolf: 8/20 = 40% chance.
Veigar is a villager but his seer is a wolf: 12/20*8/19 = 25.3% chance.
Veigar being a seer is again just a special case of the first scenario.
In this case, 34.7% of the time we should follow Veigar's advice, and 65.3% of the time we shouldn't.

Given these 2 cases, and the fact that this is the only lead, I am going to stick with Frank for now. If Frank is a villager, then we can assume that either Veigar or his seer is a wolf. I might change depending on who Veigar points out the second wolf to be.

Yeap.
Vote Frankdeslimste

I'm happy to go along with this. If Frank isn't a wolf then we'll get a wolf anyway.

Edit: Forgot this: Vote: Frank

Edited 2014-11-08 18:44:00

Was there a need for all those numbers? They really mean nothing considering the game isn't just a chance-based probability game. It's confusing and fluffy, perhaps even Wolfy

That said, yes Frank might aswell go, and if he's a villager we'll demand a confession as to who the fake seer is or just lynch Veigar. This is reminding me of Arun's Charade though so don't try and be clever, Veigar.


Vote: Frank

No not really, but remember I'm numbers guy. I do the numbers. Also, there isn't much we can know for absolute certain right now. Right now it's more of whether you trust Veigar.

I'll vote for Frankdeslimste

I would like to join in on voting Frank, but I don't want to be responsible for murdering another innocent. I will continue to abstain. Seeing as there is no other lynching target, and Frank is our best bet anyway.

Gennghis, why did you join the game if you're going to always abstain from voting?

I don't always abstain.... I usually make up my mind half-way through the lynching round. But there aren't many other theories out there that are being preached right now, meaning Frank is pretty much everybody's target. If he turns out villager, then I don't want to be responsible for that.

Only a wolf should be worried about looking suspicious. You're not protecting your reputation by refusing to vote, you're just proving you care more about what people think of you than what you can do for the village.

Ouch, this is not what I wanted to read. It already seems way too late, but I'm still going to try to prevent you guys from making a mistake.

I have no clue how or why Veigar said my name, but I'm not a wolf. I am the Vigilante.
If you guys would let me live I could proof it by shooting the target of your choice. Maybe I should just shoot Veigar for spreading lies.

Edited 2014-11-08 21:02:41

Frank, does this mean that you're the retarded vigilante that wasted a bullet trying to kill Arun?

Interesting defense I must say. What say you villagers ? Trust Veigar or Frank ? If Frank's being honest, we lose a bullet or two. If Veigar's right we get a wolf.

I am going to stick to John Smith in line with my reasoning. Hardly contributing and simply voting. Be more active man ! One could argue this is wolfish behavior.

Retarded isn't the word I would want to use, but yes I shot Arun.

Unless this seer really doesn't like cooperating with our group (and im pretty sure he is cooperating, since he has told everyone in our chat) and wants to make us lose the game, im positive Frank is one of the wolves.

So far, nobody has come forth claiming to have shot Arun, but perhaps the reason why is because the one who did shot him is dead (bdh).

Even if frank isn't a wolf, im probably gonna get killed by the wolves anyways, since im one of the few people organising a group to find them.

Edited 2014-11-08 22:14:19

Hmph I think this is all a big ploy by Factio Aurea. They have the best opportunity to win with only 2 casualties, and it seems that most votes are won with 6 - 7 voters....
Notice how they jump at the opportunity to kill one wolf, but not the second wolf. Of course, this is going with the 2 Wolves theory, but seeing as how only Frank is being persecuted, they obviously both seered the same person ( Frank ). I'm sure Aurea would get giddy over that yes, thinning the wolves herd so that when the wolves becomes redundant, Aurea can just vote them off. I say we should focus efforts to give Aurea more of a cripple then focus on the wolves. For now, I will go with voting Kellen, no matter how futile the gesture is.

Edited 2014-11-08 22:16:36