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Estimate the remaining time of a level: 2021-08-07 14:57:57

functor
Level 56
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***WARNING***
Warzone has a major update on Aug. 9, 2021. Below is the changelog.
https://www.warzone.com/ChangeLog/5.14.0.htm

All information below might be inaccurate.

Assume that, at some point of a level, we do not do anything but:
* selling items,
* conquering territories (but ignore the assets on them).
I will share a method to estimate the time needed to finished a level.

You are free to use this to create some tools to share with others, as long as you give the credit in a suitable way.

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Application
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Once we have an accurate estimate on remaining time of a level, we can determine the optimal action (such as upgrading) at any given time by comparing the remaining time before the action and after the action.

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Assumption
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* No modifiers. You may need to change the formula slightly to take techs, advancements, and artifacts into consideration.
* Have Statistics 1.
* Assume that the fixed portion of drafting is 0, and assume that we can exhaust the sliding portion of drafting.
* Ignore the resource cache and money cache. (You can convert them to current money if you need a more accurate estimation)

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Notation
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The data can be seen directly in the game is put in brackets.

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Step 1. Estimate remaining territory cost
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Total territory cost: This can be found in Z's spreadsheet.

Conquered territory cost = [Total armies earned] + [Total armies saved by Joint Strike] + [Total armies saved from hospital] - [Armies].

Unconquered territory cost = [Total territory cost] - [Conquered territory cost].

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Step 2. Estimate armies needed to be earned
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Total number of territories: This can be found by clicking the abort level button.

Number of conquered territories: Same as above.

Number of unconquered territories = [Total number of territories] - [Number of conquered territories].

Future hospital saving = [Hospital saving per territory] * [Number of unconquered territories]

Future Joint Strike saving = (Unconquered territory cost - Future hospital saving) * 25%

Future armies earned = Unconquered territory cost - Future hospital saving - Future Joint Strike saving - [Armies]

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Step 3. Estimate armies needed from army camps and mercenary camps
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Armies caches: We do not have complete data on Armies caches yet. I usually use the following approximation.

Armies caches ~ Total territory cost * 10%.

Future armies from caches = Armies caches - [Total armies from caches].

Future armies from drafting = ([Total armies earned] + Future armies earned) * 15% - [Total armies from drafting]

Future armies from army camps and mercenary camps = Future armies earned - Future armies from caches - Future armies from drafting

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Step 4. Estimate money production
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Money production from territories and bonuses = [Money per second]

Money production from selling ore = a sum over all mines

Money production from selling alloys = a sum over all smelters

Money production from selling items = a sum over all crafters

Total money production = Money production from territories and bonuses + Money production from selling ore + Money production from selling alloys + Money production from selling items

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Step 5. Estimate army production
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Army production from army camps = [Armies per second] = a sum over all army camps

Average mercenary cost: We need to guess, or you can check my thread "Level Information".

Army production from mercenary camps = Total money production / Average mercenary cost

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Step 6. Estimate mercenaries
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Total mercenaries: This can be found in Z's spreadsheet. Or, we can simply use the following approximation.

Total mercenaries ~ Total territories cost * 20%

Mercenary left = Total mercenaries - [Total mercenaries purchased]

Mercenaries that could be purchased immediately = min(Mercenary left, [Money] / Average mercenary cost)

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Step 7. Estimate remaining time
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Remaining time when there are sufficient mercenaries = (Future armies from army camps and mercenary camps - Mercenaries that could be purchased immediately) / (Army production from army camps + Army production from mercenary camps)

Remaining time when there are insufficient mercenaries = (Future armies from army camps and mercenary camps - Mercenary left) / Army production from army camps

Remaining time = max(Remaining time when there are sufficient mercenaries, Remaining time when there are insufficient mercenaries)

Edited 8/10/2021 02:59:53
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