@QuickSilver, Norman, and l4v.r0v

The attack from Greenland turn 3, was in fact the decisive move. I internally realized that too, and was prepared if it didn't work out.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't 4th pick China. If I had 4th picked China, I could have moved west turn 1 and be threatening Europe turn 2. If I had done that, then I wouldn't need to do any "prediction" in Greenland. I could have just broken Europe before it even began, without much effort.

So why didn't I do that? There were 2 reasons. I thought that NA was unbelievably broken on this map, with the wasteland on the Asian border. I think the specifics of the map drove away interest in this area, because it wasn't as easily rushable as South America or Europe. I believed it was possible to take NA slowly and thought I could use the "threat" of losing Europe as a ruse to take it.

And the second reason? Small Earth is all about precision and anticipation. You have to be very good at both. You have to squeeze every last drop of juice out of each soldier you have and you have to get inside the other guy's head. But how can I anticipate Johnny if I don't understand him? All I learned Game 1 was that he doesn't really know how to play Small Earth. But I didn't see how he likes to allocate troops in a scrappy fight.

In other words, I needed data. Was I willing to lose a game just to acquire data? No. I bet that he wouldn't see the threat of Greenland (which was honestly a fair bet from what I saw Game 1 and what I knew of his picks). But even if he did and protected it, my 3 on S. Europe would have been enough to breach most likely. And in an even 7-7 game, I felt confident I win. Those games tend to go to the person who has more experience.

I agree with l4v.r0v. Game 2 was unlike Game 1 because there was a "possibility" Johnny could win. That possibility would exist if he could defend Europe at all 3 locations for 2 straight turns. If you think about it, I didn't have to get lucky at all; I just had to not get supremely unlucky. Rather than rolling bad dice that don't favor you, Johnny should have changed his strategy at that point imo.

Edited 5/24/2021 22:30:20

turn 3 has many ways to play it. i know i would have done something different than both players in this spot. 2 turn europe is best strategy when plan is to wield that income for only 1 turn, and move on from there. even when you know you will be contested on turn 3, you can outright win the game with small misplays on turn 3 from your opponent, even if they break you

Is there a game 3 yet?

Currently on a vacation, but there will be when I'm back :) I don't get back till June 2nd tho

sanmu the shamu - is he based?

He’s clearly a shaman

@Quicksilver, you arnt the best SE player no offence.

Best of 11 Arrow vs Quicksilver when?

Sure, but SE1W

Btw, i never said i am the best player in SE, but all ik is that Quicksilver isnt the best as he is claiming to be...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

Arrow, I think you missed Quicksilver's joke lol.

That being said, his analysis was good here imo.

Game 1 [...]
Intel is a wash: Nauz has 1/4, sanmu 2/3 but sanmu only needs to for Nauz being in Europe. If Nauz isn't in Europe, sanmu has ample time to react to a North America or Asia gamble.

About picks:
If you have the same first pick as your opponent and some similar other picks, you are probably going to get either 1st and 4th or 2nd and 3rd picks. It happens even if your opponent gets the first pick and has picked 2nd where you picked 3rd. If the 1st pick has gone to him he never gets both 1st and 2nd picks: I was quite surprised when I discovered that in that case your 3rd pick has priority on his 2nd.

If you pick both Oceania and South America on that board as first picks, you're most probably not going to get 1st and 2nd pick so you must have 1 between the 1st and the 3rd pick if not both in some cases.
When you want to pick both the 2 armies per turn bonuses, a good strategy imo can be to pick as second pick a counter of the bonus you're not picking as 1st pick and as 3rd pick the countered bonus. (This game would have been harder for sanmu even if Nauz picked 1st Oceania and 2nd Africa as they both picked Africa as 3rd.)

Noone has picked it but I'm not that sure about North America being a so terrible 4th pick, if you get both South and North America and your opponent gets Australia and Africa, you aren't in a very bad situation probably. You should be careful because your opponent can try an attack with 9 on North Africa and if you have completed South America on turn 1 and he has the first move on turn 2 you have already lost. To play safe you should complete your bonus on turn 2 If he has not attacked North Africa with 9 on turn 1 or on turn 3 If he has, saving 3 armies in the spawn in north America to get a reinforcement card piece on turn 4 if you have to play defensively.

My picks would probably have been: 1st Brazil, 2nd Africa, 3rd Oceania, 4th North America.

Returning to the played game: sanmu can't be 100% sure about his opponent being in Europe if Nauz doesn't move as he can also be in North America, which was quite tricky as 4th pick (even with Oceania as 1st) since it was risky to complete Africa very soon with a probable danger coming from Europe. This is one of the reasons why that move on turn 1 is a mistake in my opinion. The other is that it may already give to your opponent an intel about the move order, but in the game the fact that sanmu has not attacked North Africa as first move avoided it (Nauz should instead know from turn 1 that he moves first on even turns and as second in odd turns since the 4th attack by sanmu arrived after his 4th attack). If I was in that situation I would have attacked South Europe (to take Western Europe is a mistake imo since you do not have a double border with Africa and you are wasting armies that your opponent should use for that neutral) taking it with 11 armies on turn 2: samnu is probably going to enter Europe to block it or he is going to try to complete Africa, in both cases an attack there on first move is quite dangerous for him.

Verdict: Decided on picks. After picks, it was sanmu's game to lose.

I do not completely agree with that. Returning again to the actually played, I think that another main mistake from Nauz has been the fact that he has tried to attack North America from Asia while Europe was probably far better for that purpose. In his position I would try to take Greenland very soon and use the 6 australian armies to get Middle East trying to put further pressure on Africa if sanmu tries to get it. If he manages to block North America and Africa it is still a 7v7 game, hard to play but not impossible to win. In the moment North America was completed and safe, the game was over of course.

Game 2 [...]Verdict: 90% decided on picks.

Here I completely disagree. The game is decided by the misplay on turn 3, not by the picks. Once again Nauz has not understood the importance of blocking early North America and in that turn he has tried to defend everything, which resulted in a full disaster. With that position you just can't hold Europe without a huge amount of luck, and all becomes about playing safe and understandig that if you lose Iceland you're probably going to lose the game, thing that does not happen if you lose one of the other 2 borders. The attack with 3 by samnu was very risky, anyway the misplay by Nauz was quite huge so that risk did not matter that much.

Good luck for the other games.

Edited 6/1/2021 14:03:38

Excited for game 3 ... these games and more importantly the resultant discussions on them are educational. We should keep this going! Always have a spotlight best of 11 series with post analysis going on.

Appreciate all the analysis! I think it's great for so many people to discuss Small Earth strategy :) and I hope it continues.

I just got back from my vacation and am ready for game 3 whenever Nauz is! (but it appears he's also on vacation?)

Ercole, you have insulted me by questioning my analysis. We must now play a best-of-11 Small Earth 1 Wasteland series to settle this question of honor.

(Just kidding, I agree with your points. I just threw out a sloppy analysis just to have something. I'm glad it's inspired others to offer their own better analyses.)

Speaking from experience, I fully endorse doing a best of 11 series. Ercole v. knyte 2021 (jk lol, but maybe not ;) )

I challenge you (shanmu) to a bo11. to boring to just watch nauz get destroyed.

i would love to see y'all play nomercy, he is probably the best SE player on the site (or one of)