Is Phobos an elite player? - 100% yes. You don't name yourself after the larger moon of Mars unless your penis size is at least greater than 6 inches.
Is Nauz an elite player? - No, for the reasons stated above.
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games - Nauz probably quits after 1 or 2 losses.
Who will win this challenge - Phobos
What will be the final score - 6-0 (Phobos)
Who will be crowned best picker? - Nauz. This man analyzes picks like no other.

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? - ;)
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? - Do participation trophies count?
Are Masters too arrogant? - Some of them are without a doubt. Others are not. Honestly, they only seem to have members on both extremes.

Edited 5/19/2021 03:27:42

Sorry, 6-0 predicts are spoiled.

1-0 my lead: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26949008

Edited 5/19/2021 03:34:35

Congrats on Nauz taking the first game. There's a reason I challenged best of 11 and not best of 1 :)

Second game has been created:

https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26962979

Oh, I'm not claiming that I've won the series, I just said any 6-0 prediction is spoiled. I still think it's very possible of going either way. Despite criticizing your picks and being blunt, I don't think you're a bad player.

If I were to group players into distinct tiers, I'd put you in Tier C, I'd also put myself in Tier C.

Tier C has no relation to Div C in CL to clarify.

Tier A are players I'd expect to beat under 25%. Tier B 25-40%, Tier C 40-60%. Ranking players vs each other when they're close-ish is hard IMO, but putting people into vague tiers isn't that hard usually.

I think the one error I probably made was taking Southeast Asia. It worked okay in the end, but I think hitting Tomsk turn 4 with a stack is probably the safer win. Otherwise turn 5 I gamble on having first order if he hits with a big stack.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:15:45

https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=26949008

Very interesting picks by Nauzhror and a very bold initial expansion. At least the expansion could also have easily backfired IMO. But then again I believe I might actually agree with both his picks and his expansion, go big or gome home.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:07:13

The game play here is not optimized for (using) information. See what I did there. I'll be here all day.

Phobos has no intel, but there can't be many places that Nauz can be - but Phobos doesn't really seem to have a plan in the middle turns.

On the other hand, I question Nauz going for WC first given the potential ftb pick in Pakistan.

Luckily I'll probably get a really long explanation.

IMGAINE 40 OF THESE GUYS GOING AT IN AN FFA! OMG THE INSANITY IT WOULD BE!

Pakistan's risky, I knew if he had it and hit WC turn 2 that the game was over, but I don't at all like Pakistan vs EC. As such I expected most opponents to pick EC as #1, and not pick Pakistan.

My explanation is simple. I had no intel but know Nauz has some combination of the Asia/Indo/Aus picks. If he has pakistan (roughly in my brain this was 50% chance) then a stack in georgia turn 4 is expected and I try to beat the stack, with the logic that if it doesn't show up I can probably recover (I couldn't).

I assumed Nauz didn't double pick west china because it's so easy to get a pick set with pakistan. If I 3-4-5 counter the FTB instead of 4-5-6 I win this game very easily. I didn't and Nauz's bold choice paid off. Without knowing he picked west china and immediately stacking to counter it, the game is lost.

I know several people will disagree with my expansion turn 5. I stand by it's a reasonable decision if you assume that Nauz did not start with West China.

Pakistan's risky, I knew if he had it and hit WC turn 2 that the game was over

That looks like an acceptable risk for me given that this would require Phobos not only sitting in Pakistan but probably having a clue about West China. Else there is no reason to not move already turn 1.

If Phobos was in Pakistan and Nauzhror had expanded more ordinary, Nauzhror would have 2 more income from his bonuses, some armies momentum and when in question could also expand. An ordinary expansion would have probably won Nauzhror the game then but his gameplay which he opted for probably not.

If Phobos was not in Pakistan, then Nauzhror could have guessed Phobos' last pick with a pretty high likelihood to be West Russia. In order to evaluate whether Nauzhrors expansion was a mistake you would have to evaluate whether an ordinary expansion would have won against West Russia as Phobos' third pick. I believe I would prefer Nauzhrors position over Phobos' with Nauzhor expanding in a conventional way however the game would certainly have been less of a clear win than with Nauzhrors bold expansion.

For this reason I see both Nauzhrors picks and expansion not contradicting optimal play but his expansion is maybe stretching it.

Edited 5/19/2021 04:45:14

Taking SEA instead of hitting Tomsk a turn earlier is IMO the most questionable thing I did.

I actually debated for a while whether to keep going full expansion and take Indonesia earlier than I did, but I decided it was risky, and not necessary to secure the win, as I knew turn 5 that the game was won (barring any huge mistakes on my part).

Edited 5/19/2021 04:54:40

Is Phobos an elite player? (Why?) no , for me only Master of desaster is an elite player
Is Nauz an elite player? (Why?) no, every player can beat every player
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games? yes, they ll play till the end
Who will win this challenge? Phobos
What will be the final score? tight
Who will be crowned best picker? if i see the 1st game , i d say no one!
Nauz strategy was too risky for me cause pakistan

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? timinator vs zev
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? yes
Are Masters too arrogant? it depends who!! there is a lot of good guys in Master, but Timinator is the king of arrogant player

Edited 5/19/2021 05:19:50

Worse than Johnny Silverhand?

different style
exemple : when you ask him why he doesn t say gg when he lose, his answer is " fuck off"

Edited 5/19/2021 05:31:15

FWIW, I actually agree with Zev, I would say neither Phobos or myself are "elite". Though I would also accept the answer that we both are. I think it largely depends on how high people would set the bar for such a term personally. In my eyes, elite is only the "Top Tier" of players, who have almost no peers, ie. top 10 or so on the site. Neither of us are that good. That said, others might consider anyone over 2000 or so elo to be elite by the standards of the playerbase as a whole, and in that scenario we'd both apply.

Edited 5/19/2021 05:36:52

be 1st on 1v1 ladder , with only 3 picks is an elite player

By my own personal definition of elite, I agree that neither Nauz or myself are elite.

To me elite players are players who are expected to light it up in CL A. Examples include: Beep Beep, Buns, Rufus, MoD etc.

I'm an upper tier CL B player, lower tier CL A player. I actually find Nauz's skill hard to estimate because his warzone profile is so weird, but I do think I'm better than him.

Is Phobos an elite player? (Why?) I am an elite player
Is Nauz an elite player? (Why?) Never heard of him
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games?
Who will win this challenge? Me
What will be the final score? 11-0
Who will be crowned best picker? Me

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? Arrow vs Joeydavis
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? Trophy of biggest walls of text
Are Masters too arrogant? I love Marcus Aurelius and he is a very nice person

I thought the definition of elite was to be a MASTER Clan player?

Is Phobos an elite player? No, Phobos is a decent player, but I wouldn't call him elite.
Is Nauz an elite player? No, Nauz is a decent player, but I wouldn't call him elite.
Can this challenge run its course, or will one player find an excuse or disappear before he loses 6 games? It'll finish. We'll make it finish.
Who will win this challenge? Nauz
What will be the final score? 6-5
Who will be crowned best picker? Phoebe

Any other challenges you’d like to see between Warzone players? Waddles vs Xenophon
Will Nauz ever get a trophy? Yes
Are Masters too arrogant? Yes, we are all very stuck up. It's kind of our thing.