Actually, thinking about it, I'll need to reveal now to give them a chance to vote, and you all a chance to attack them!
Phulesdorp had his role pre-drawn for him, and since Gnuffone & Hermes have asked since then, I will make exceptions at let them join. For those concerned about the balance of the game, during sign-ups I actually pre-planned how many roles I'd have with specific numbers, so it won't upset the balance at all.
Doublelynching makes no sense at all, since we have a seer.
And we want that seer to gather as much information as he can. For doing that he needs time. Losing one villager per night is bad as it is, but increasing the risk of losing additional villagers if we dont have to, is utterly stupid.
So if I advocate you, Silver (and hisballs for the same reason) to be lynched, I do that because of a logical conclusion. Your own claim of making us believe how smart you are gives me no choice as to assume that you are aware of what i just said before. If you are really that smart you would know that we need to give the seer time. So if I wrongfully accuse you of being a villager and getting lynched, it comes down to your own hybris of not being as smart as you claimed to be.
So for the moment only hisballs and Silver give me logical evidence on supporting my claim of them being wolves. Evidence on the others is too thin to justify any course of action for the time being.
Hold on a second, myhand. If we're both wolves, why would we target each other? In this specific case if I'm a wolf as you claim that I am, why the hell would I target a fellow wolf?
Your conclusion that it makes no sense is a fallacy. You could accuse each other and in the case of one dying and being revealed a wolf it would appear to the village that the other one is a villager.
I ask myself to be seered tonight. Dom can you perhaps put that up somewhere that the seers can see this? If there's more than one seer, please all of you seer me and only me, just to avoid confusion in the night report. A lot will be revealed, trust me and a lot will start to make sense.
I am not shady, I am making sense. Maybe you are just not able to see the logic in it. I still believe this to be a possibility. If you turn out to be a villager, I promise you I will really slap you around for your ignorance.
If you would be a villager and open minded, you could still admit to see the logic in it now, since I explained it to you. Do I need to bring sze here to give you a mathematical quotation that proves my point or can you see it on your own?
So I give you a chance to rethink what you said and comment on why the logic of mine is supposed to be flawed. If all you will bring up is "this is shady" then i will not be convinced.
The Wolves here have the advantage. They know who the villains and the good people are. From reading the previous posts I have found out that they have their own form of private communication. This means they will be much more organized. They can choose to all cast their votes towards someone, either to kill someone or save themselves.
There are about 22 players player. From my experience there are usually about 3 to 5 villains. This means you have a 23% chance of killing a wolf and a 77% chance of killing a villager. If you try to kill two at a same time, the probability that you will kill two villagers is greater than killing one villager, one wolf.
The less villagers left, the more the wolves can use their advantage of numbers. 5 votes towards anyone can completely sway the votes. It is soon possible that players become aware who the wolves are but are unable to form any action as the wolves form a coalition and veto any kills towards them
Do not try multi-ikilling, not unless you are absolutely sure. The more people remaining, the more time you get to guess who is a villain and who is not.
Silver you ask for all seers to seer you??? Ridiculous waste of seers surely! We need His Balls seered because some players will not believe he is a wolf. I am 100% sure he is a wolf.
EDIT: It makes sense for all to seer same target to avoid confusion if Angel + other role are seeded (we don't see names). I still want His Balls seered though; I'd rather know he is a wolf and we lynch him next turn while Silver protects himself in the night. If after we lynch His Balls there is still doubt, then we can seer Silver. But for now, let's expose a wolf.
Okay i just recounted the number of players and I agree that in this situation its better to doublelynch to maintain an odd number of players.
With my own post i started to work myself in to the mathematical side of the game.
Our problem here is that we dont know how many special roles we have exactly, the more seers we have the better it is to not lynch to give those roles more time for investigation.
On the other hand, every night we lose a villager without the chance of killing a wolf. So every turn we dont lynch we lose the propability of not killing a wolf.
We can safely say that we can not for certain say who is and who is not a wolf until tomorrow. Why? Well tomorrow people will have been seered, giving us information, someone will have been lynched, giving us information, someone will have been killed (or attacked) by wolves, giving us information. Right now we have no physically facts, only what people say.
