no matter what luck percentage I use in the settings, I am getting the impression that luck still decides virtually every game.

after hundreds and hundreds of games....

most every game I win, my cumulative luck is positive.
most every game I lose, my cumulative luck is negative.

When I have an at least minimally competent opponent, I find it rare to win if my luck is even slightly down. Likewise, it seems almost impossible to lose if your luck is positive.

I've been using 75% (default) and 16% (ladder default) and a few test cases in-between. Perhaps I should try setting the luck to 0%!

0% straight round with cycle move order... simple

0% sr should be the standard! But i don't think at all luck is deciding the outcome of a game more than max. 2/10times (i'm talking about 16%wr). I agree that it's worse with 75%

taxi, maybe you're just an average player. if luck decided the fate of all games, everyone's winning pct would be 50%

Luck only decides games for bad/mediocre players. Good players make their own luck.

That should be a warlight quote.

You need skill to get first order!!

Edited 6/25/2014 16:45:22

He's clearly onto something.

I haven't checked, but I am sure I've probably had positive luck in all 25 of my games.

I mean, there's only a 0.000002980232238769531% (1 in 335,544) chance that you will get luckier than your opponent 25 times in a row, but if I'm 25-0, and luck decides games than that must be what happened.

Edited 6/25/2014 18:45:50

I know how that feels, luck is an amazing thing.

Even with straight round 0% luck there is still getting your first pick.

1 in 335,544
I think you dropped a few digits there

"Luck" in those graphs doesn't always mean what you think it should. If you're on 0% sr, and attack with a 3v2, you'll get +.2 luck even though there's absolutely no luck in winning in that situation, since you "really" should have only killed 1.8 armies.

Edited 6/25/2014 19:52:23

I had this discussion with Piggy before. It's generally true that games "won because of luck" are because one player decided to play risky and the other player decided not to push luck.

Not pushing luck means not relying on getting 1st order/last order. Not relying on 3v2/6v4 working for your expansion to be good. Not relying on guessing where the opponents are.

You play in a way that would be good for the 3 scenarios above to be true, but not to end the game if it doesn't work. It's hard for all 3 scenarios to work in a game, and in those particular games where all 3 of the above work for someone, that game is decided on luck.

"1 in 335,544
I think you dropped a few digits there"

I think he didn't.

0.000002980232238769531%

Yeah, looks like 1 in 33,554,432, due to max being 100, not 1 when dealing with percents.

when I refer to 'luck', I'm talking about the cumulative luck graph under Statistics. Yes, there is also the luck of the initial territory distribution, luck of the cards, etc.

I check the cumulative luck (which I presume is combat luck only) after every game - it seems to be the prime determinant when playing against anyone who is at least half decent.

luck is far from the primary determinant. It very well could be in your case but as Lolowut mentioned if that is the case for you then you are likely playing to risky and relying on luck to win. If you rely on luck to win then you are at the mercy of luck. In other words you are creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

you have a 60% win rate so are you saying that on avg you are 10% luckier than the avg player?

If you picture the distribution of win percentages as a bell curve, I am saying that bell curve is kinda tall and skinny, perhaps due to luck.

a small standard deviation, to put it mathematically.

http://images.flatworldknowledge.com/shafer/shafer-fig05_006.jpg

"1 in 335,544
I think you dropped a few digits there"

I think he didn't.

0.000002980232238769531%

Yeah, looks like 1 in 33,554,432, due to max being 100, not 1 when dealing with percents.

1 in 335,544
1 in 33,554,432
He definitely dropped a few, unless you're saying 33 million and 330 thousand are the same

Edited 6/28/2014 18:22:06

Even with 75% luck, games aren't decided by luck. All luck does is define a range of possibilities. A good player is aware of this spread and makes tactical decisions.

For example, if it's very important to take a certain territory defended by 2 neutrals, then a smart player will commit more than 3 armies to take said territory.

Unfortunately I have to disagree Taxi. Yes if all things are equal luck determines the outcome. BUT all things are not equal. People have distinctly different skill sets and this can work to the advantage or detriment of another player. I would not say it is luck that prevents me from beating ottoman but rather his particular skill sets play out as an advantage against mine. There are far to many factors at play to suggest luck is the singular determining factor.

not the singular determinant, but the primary one.