Because it is not a good play on his side, huge risks for basically no benefit (we just break back in the next turn and he wasted more on neutrals than he gains from +4). Also, it is kinda covered by the prediction to blockade Brazil and option 4.

I vote option 2

Why is there no option predicting Rufus to OD and grab SA bonus in one go rather than blockade?

@MasterMeldarion:
Option 1 and to a lesser degree also option 2 covers that possibility.

I've added the OD card to option 1. It makes sense.
Also, I forgot about Rufus' potential leftover in CA. I adjusted option 2 to an attack on Cuba with 3 instead of 2.

As long as it's not option 3. I guess I'll vote option 2

with option 2 would it be better to hit cuba first move? vs the potential leftover?

increases our chances that we break cuba?

There can also be 2 leftovers guys...

Tough one.
Option 1 doesn't get us Tomsk which is a major problem and worst case leaves us disadvantaged in SA vs CA. Best case though is a great position, putting considerable pressure on Rufus countering SA while on 13 next turn Upside in any scenario with this moveset is us either breaking Cuba OR having Colombia both of which will affect his Chinese stack vs Tomsk.
Option 2 worst case is hitting a wall in Brazil, unlikely as it is. The other bad, more realistic scenario is leaving us with smaller stack in Brazil not threatening any of his actual income at all. Bad that. But best case is Rufus on 13 and a very good position and some pressure on Rufus to prevent SA.
Option 3 worst case is being cut off from Africa entirely if he does blockade. Extremely bad that long term. Best case is Rufus being on 13 income 100% and that's real upside no other option has.
Option 4 is counter against something unlikely ( I think you guys are right about north path). Downside is losing footing in SA and an awkwardly positioned stack in China. Worst case is SA wipe which is unacceptable and best case is countering the stack and giving us momentum in Asia. Both can happen at the same time, weirdly. But again, this is playing against an unlikely moveset.


I am gonna vote for Option 1 here, upside is really good while betting on Rufus' most likely moveset ; berserk move is kind of a my style anyways; it uses OD which increases our chances of success and if it goes ok-ish we can still smash Tomsk next turn with OP whilst being ahead on income if we choose to do so instead of focusing on CA/SA cleanup. Option 2 is very close second pick for me.

nice analysis by cloud strife!

I go with option 3 though, let him do his trickster thing, I prefer more armies, more income, more momentum for the following turns. I do see the potential benefits of the other options tho, and they could work just as well/better maybe.

i dont see why we would want to hard strike CA. he will either stack SA to defend africa and possibly expand in it or go all in for the counter attack in asia.

i could only see him defend with max 3 as anticipation of us not going full but thats it.

i personally like option 1 the most. its quiet daring, would secure us SA if he ends up countering asia / stops him from expanding into africa.

option 2 is safer but not as fun if it works as option 1.

i dislike option 3 a lot.

option 4 meh.

i take option 1.

OK, let me look over the options so I can also cast my vote:

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Option 4: We have calculated last turn that Rufus either is playing sneaky with his deployments or he is in fact coming from Inner Mongolia. Opton 4 isn't "that" bad if Rufus indeed comes from Mongolia since we can use the armies to attack China, however it's not so great in that case.

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Option 3:
I like that we are delaying our moves here. However as I see it, option 1 and 2 build upon option 3 and they are, with me simplifying stuff here, just plain better.
- If Rufus plays fancy, option 1 and 2 are better than option 3.
- If Rufus hits us strong instead, the way option 1 and 2 play out default to the same behavior as option 3 (in a simplified way).
--> If Rufus hits us strong first order with option 3, we perform a weak attack to Cuba.
--> If Rufus hits us strong with option 1, we also perform a weak attack to Cuba and our other orders don't get executed.

Also I disagree about Rufus sneaking South America being a non option. If Rufus sneaks South America we won't be able to break the bonus back and Rufus will win the game when he breaks us from China. Of course Rufus sneaking South America involves the majority is his stack moving to Venezuela.

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Option 2:
This is almost the same as option 1 however option 1 with the main difference of option 1 also taking Colombia. Since I like to view WarLight as a "game of pressure", for me taking Colombia is a huge deal. If we don't take Colombia then next turn we have to worry about the following aspects:
- Rufus moving from China
- Rufus taking West Africa
- Rufus taking back Central America
(- Rufus performing some fancy play in South America by throwing us out of the bonus)

However if we take Colombia then the pressure situation for me swings in a huge way:
- Rufus taking back Central America has less pressure since we also have the option to attack Central America from Colombia.
- Rufus has pressure of us sneaking South America or alternatively he has pressure of us getting into a situation where we could safely sneak South America.
(- Rufus has enhanced pressure of getting into a situation where he risks getting eliminated from Central America.)

So yeah, for me Colombia is a relatively huge deal, pretty much independent of how Rufus decides to play his turn.

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Option 1: The deployment in Bolivia might be a bit questionable, but for me this is also a part of the mentioned pressure swing of us threatening Rufus with South America.

Also I have to disagree about option 1 being more risky in case of Rufus hiting us full force. With option 2 we perform a small attack to Central America and our remaining stack will then crush into his bigger stack. With option 1 however we hit Central America stronger, then hit Colombia and there won't be any remaining stack which we crush into Rufus' bigger stack.
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--> I vote for option 1.

Edited 9/29/2020 23:23:09

Interesting analyses, everyone. Voting ends soon, so if anyone wants to put in their vote, options one and two are close!

I vote for option 1.

I vote option 2.

I forgot to mention I changed option 2 as per Quicksilver's suggestion, as it's strictly better. Voting ends in an hour and with the new votes it's even closer

2....

option 3 is too boring..... only a true german would pick that

Edited 9/30/2020 13:01:21

So the votes are tied between option one and option two. I will wait with committing until one of two things happen to break the tie:
1) Someone who hasn't voted for option 1 or 2 speaks out their preference
2) We get a new vote in

Whatever happens first.

Booh.
I will change to option 2 then, since I do not see any benefit in taking Colombia. To me it is not a game of pressure but a game of armies, and I don't want to spend armies on this territory. Also, I really would want to see Tomsk.

Edited 9/30/2020 13:51:12

The World voted for option 2!

Here's a screenshot of the board as it looks now:

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The following happened:

The World:
Deploy 17 to Venezuela

Rufus:
Deploy 4 to Cuba
Deploy 6 to Brazil
Deploy 2 to Colombia

The World:
3 armies failed to take Cuba from Venezuela

Rufus:
2 armies captured Bolivia from Brazil
0 armies transferred to Colombia from Brazil (Original order sent 23 armies, Mode: Attack Only)
7 armies captured Xinjiang from Tibet

The World:
Farah♦ plays an order delay card
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Tadschikistan
1 army transferred to Ufa from Moscow
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Turkmenistan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Ufa
1 army transferred to Tadschikistan from Kyrgyzstan
1 army transferred to Eastern Kazakhstan from Kyrgyzstan
4 armies captured Tomsk from Eastern Kazakhstan
26 armies failed to take Brazil from Venezuela

I would have prefered to play option 3/4 and not to panick, but panicking moves are fun. Let's goo