C of course.

C

C also for me.

Denying the card piece seems pretty far fetched however we need income.

A looks like us losing by default and B hopes for a certain play from Rufus which I don't see happening. Playing like B is necessary when we are facing immediate defeat. As for B I would have probably preferred hiting 1 spot with 6 and the others with 3.

Edited 8/11/2020 16:38:19

IMO C is undebatable here. It is the only option that is playing for a win.

With everyone but one person voting for C, we committed this option. Here's what happened:




The World took Eastern Kazakhstan with 12 and lost 1 army.
The World transferred 2 from Moscow to Ufa
The World transferred 1 from Finland to Moscow
The World transferred 1 from Sweden to Finland
The World took Western Kazakhstan with 4 and lost 2 armies.
We see Rufus show up with a 6v2 in Colombia from Panama. He lost 1 army.

Expect a new thread soon!

Edited 8/13/2020 08:57:31

We would like to give The World the option to contribute to deducing Rufus' picks and play so far. What option allows him to capture with 6? What bonuses do we think Rufus has?

To help: this is the distribution:



Edited 8/13/2020 09:13:15

https://www.warzone.com/Forum/441344-rufus-versus-world-turn-3?Offset=30

A 6v2 attack is something which I have "calculated" for East Africa and China. That's why I was thinking about the option of hitting one spot in South America also with 6. I'm more happy with C however you should be open minded to crazy play, when you feel the situation is dire, @AI.

Ah yes, I see. So the first explanation for Rufus' move is:

Looking over the board I'd also like to assume East China however I'm not certain. East China + East Africa is pretty bad for us:
- Turn 2 Rufus took East Africa
- Turn 3 Rufus took Central America
- Turn 4 Rufus will now take East China. This leaves him with another let's say 5 armies or so which he can deploy elsewhere. Even if Rufus doesn't have any intel from picks I see very little reason for him now not to hit South America with, let's say 6 armies.

By Norman.

Yep. CA + EA + EC. Not great, not terrible.

Edited 8/13/2020 10:51:26

Alright, very sensible. We will surely come up with orders considering this. Any more pick theories we should consider?

@Norman: I am familiar with the concept of taking risks in bad situations

Central + East Africa + East China seems the most likely. But I don't think it's an ironclad guarantee. For example if I assume East Russia:

Turn 1: Set up East Africa
Turn 2: Set up Central, take East Africa, take one territory in East Russia
Turn 3: Take Central America take triple border with Central Russia
Turn 4: Set Up East Russia, Counter South America

Edited 8/13/2020 17:03:01

I bet he's in Malaysia just to flex

phobos the problem with the east russia idea is that you don't want to fight while in the middle of taking your bonus - since you either have to pause taking the bonus or risk losing the first engagement

so, that decreases the probability of east russia imo

---

also, I would a decent probability on rufus smashing brazil with a bigish army first move - since he knows we are a bonus behind.

Edited 8/13/2020 17:43:22

@Quick

I think Rufus is East Africa + East China. I'm merely trying to think of alternatives so we don't get caught in a myopic view of the board that *may* not be correct.

I agree Rufus hitting Brazil big seems likely.

Picking East Russia never was a thing back in the days. Also our own play not to contest Central America is something which Rufus couldn't have foreseen.

IMO the good thing is now that in the past Rufus had the intel advantage while now we know exactly where Rufus is. I'm certain that Rufus will expand into West China now while trying to slap us around in South America.

The question for me is how Rufus will take West China. He has 16 income.
- If Rufus deploys 12 against us, we can't tell whether Rufus is expanding through Inner Mongolia or through Tibet.
- If Rufus deploys 13 against us then this is a clear sign that it's Tibet. In this case we will have to hit Xinjiang relatively strong.
- If Rufus deploys less against us, he will try to take West China immediately the turn after.

By default I'd strongly advice expecting an expansion through Inner Mongolia and not through Tibet. Us playing razor sharp in China + us not getting destroyed in South America is our victory condition.

Edited 8/13/2020 18:14:09

er ... taking west china? maybe? probably not tho?

like, what intel does rufus likely to have on scan/west russia if he's in east china? good chance his only intel is south america. in which case rufus has to think that maybe we have, or will have, central russia - so he's going to either move up from east africa to georgia and/or move up from east china (which he has two routes possible)

--

also, unless rufus wants to hide his income he might just smash us full, given his income advantage - getting brazil secures west africa as expansion

Edited 8/13/2020 18:22:33

@Quicksilver: I mean that Rufus will now move to Central Russia through West China. He has 2 possible paths and the more obvious one is through the top.

like, what intel does rufus likely to have on scan/west russia if he's in east china?
Here is what Rufus knows / doesn't know:
- Rufus probably has direct intel on the Scandinavian Peninsula. The reason is that East China only works with a +3 bonus and he couldn't have build his strategy around him luckily getting Central America.
- Then Rufus guessing West Russia shouldn't be a hard guess.
- Rufus knows that we are taking a third bonus there which can either be Central Russia or Caucasus. Caucasus might surprise him.


However I believe you are right that Rufus shouldn't take West China. If Rufus shows up in Mongolia and he doesn't see us in Central Russia he shouldn't take West China because he then has to know that it was Caucasus. Even if you disagreed with me about the intel of Rufus it gets very easy for him then. There are 4 bonuses (Scandinavia, West Russia, Central Russia, Caucasus) there, he knows that we picked 2 of those bonuses and that we expanded into the third. If he doesn't see us in Central Russia, he knows all our 3 bonuses there.

Edited 8/13/2020 18:43:34

Hello guys,
I was really enjoying this match up, but what happened? Is it not continuing?
It's been over two weeks since the last update. I really hope this continues and we get to enjoy this classic game. :-)
Good luck to The World!

Vacation happened. The event will continue. A new thread should be up today or tomorrow; sorry for the delay :)

Stop trying to con decent and honest landlord folk out of their hard earned money and focus on your duties as a puppet of the hive!