@Orannis: Regarding playing "optimally", optimal WarLight play requires you to use a random number generator in some cases. I have also calculated how to set the RNG up for a certain restricted example in my guide here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NyhCpIQKShAbWGXicO_ph9whV_UyMS-3a7_re0C7R8Y/edit#heading=h.y6pv3soufztp
. So even if two players choose to play a certain situation out differently with 1 players choice causing him to lose the game it's still possible that both players have played optimally.
I'd like to formulate your question differently:
"Is it possible that I can send my opponent a screenshot of the board as I see it, including telling him my moves and there still is nothing he can do about it?"
Although this question sounds kinda "academic", the truth is that thousands of WarLight players solve this riddle on a daily basis since this is when you should press the surrender button if on the losing side. Practically you might still hope that your opponent throws away his win.
About whether this could be true for the start you haven't stated thegame settings (auto / manual picks, wastelands?). If believe such games should be exceptionally rare from the start. If it's with manual picks, the loser had to come into this bad situation despite picking optimally so you could also state your question differently again: "Are there small earth games which are totally dependant on picking luck?"