How is it luck when tris wins 90% of them, while most are with 5+ people? If it was random, and not rigged, he wouldn't have won more than 30-35%!

Oh, those are just my comrades. I instruct them to hack rafflebot to gain more coins to further our terrorist goals.

My new raffl0r.exe hax0r does the magic.

Did Fizzer intentionally make the rafflebot hackable, or is this just people cheating the system and being jerks?

Not bed bet money kids UwU

True. Luck is depending on different factors. If A won a lot, A’s luck will decrease while the others increase, if B never won a raffle, B would have a higher chance of winning, then the process repeats, depending on the people joining.

Since tris wins the most, his luck will gradually decrease but he is getting very lucky like tris is cheating. If ever he still wins a lot, it would mean that the raffle gets rigged by tris. If tris continually lose at raffles, it means that his luck is steadily decreasing a lot, which would make others increase and if they win a lot, their luck would gradually decrease. If there are less winners, the reward will gradually get bigger and bigger until someone gets it. That is the time where the reward will decrease. Raffles can be rigged, depending on all graphs presented who wins the most or least.

Im assuming the rafflebot hosts independent events, not dependent ones, CB. I would not think that winning the first raffle would at all affect the chance of winning the second raffle. Meaning that, winning either raffle has an equal chance, but winning both has an exponentially lower chance as the odds are multiplied together.

According to your argument, for example, flipping a coin the second time would favor against heads if on the first flip you get heads, which is simply not true. You have 1/2 a chance of flipping heads on the first flip, and 1/2 a chance of flipping heads on the second flip. But flipping heads on both flips would be (1/2)*(1/2) which is 1/4.

You can try it yourself. Flip a coin, record if it is heads or tails, then flip it again, and see whether or not it is more likely the coin lands on a different side than the same one. I guarantee you that a large sample size will net you that it only happens 50% of the time.

Don't think it is intentional, but I bet you need just a little technical knowledge to make a program that could rig it.

Aura, results from the first won't change the chances on the second, but you can't win 9 in 10 unless you rig it. It is a chance that is virtually impossible. Assuming in each raffle participated 5 people, because it is usually arounnd 5, you have 0.2^9*0.8. You can calculate that...

"virtually impossible."

dont think you know what "impossible" means.
also so far in the post there have been no proof that that what you're claiming is actually happening.

How do you know if the person that supposidly riggs it is winning or losing if you are not online? If someone gety rly lucky and wins 9 out of 10 times he will probably experience a losing streak for the next few raffles. And since you werent there when he got it you think he riggs it.

Edited 7/13/2019 07:49:17

Aura, your talking about a 1v1 luck. If I have 2 dices that has 12 sides, do you think that I can get a double more than a non double? It possibly can’t be since there is a 1 in 144 that I can get a double. Sometimes, you get lucky, but look at it farther, you can see the cumulative luck gained and lost.

uwu it’s anime tiddies! Lightning is blessed by anime tiddies! Goddamn those tiddies!

I keep on missing them and if I miss them, I won't have a chance of getting coins.

Joi, we're on at similar hours. He's German just like you. I see him winning about 9 of 10. Every day. Every time.

You cannot completely rig the raffle, but you can increase your chances to win. Here are some ways how to do it, based on and empirical observations and statistics.

• RaffleBot prefers name starting with a certain letter. L is great, M is another choice. I've won once 10 coins after changing my name to "Mr Kris", despite no luck for a long time. However, offensive, pretentious or very long names do the converse.
  
• Be active in chat. The RaffleBot was added to make the chat more vivid and it analyzes how much people talk. It counts words (only real ones!), but be careful - a series of monologue chats drops your chances. RaffleBot does not like this.
  
• Use the legendary raffl0r.exe. It was a secret weapon of some riggers, but it leaked some time ago. You can find it here: https://tinyurl.com/raffl0r
  

You're welcomed :)

"Aura, your talking about a 1v1 luck."

Its a simplified example. My logic applies for three people as much to two people as it does to 7 people.

The odds of getting consecutive rolls when one person is chosen from a group is always (1/x)^n where x is the number of players and n is the number of rolls. On any one roll, the odds are always 1/n. So the odds of a prior roll will not influence the odds of any subsequent roll, which is what you are claiming in your first statement, unless there indeed is some built in dependency with rafflebot.

"If I have 2 dices that has 12 sides, do you think that I can get a double more than a non double? It possibly can’t be since there is a 1 in 144 that I can get a double. Sometimes, you get lucky, but look at it farther, you can see the cumulative luck gained and lost."

I never at all claimed this. But to humor you:

Even with two dice rolled simultaneously, the events are independent of each other over a long series of time. Lets use two 6 sided dice since this is more common of an example. There are 6 possible combinations out of a total of 36 combinations where you can roll doubles. (or 3/18). The odds of rolling doubles on any one throw is 3/18, and does not depend on previous or subsequent throws. however, rolling doubles twice in a row is (3/18)^2.

Your idea of "cumulative luck" is simply the misunderstanding that over a large sample size the true odds of independent events are realized. You are mixing the ideas of theoretical probability (probability based off an infinite number of attempts) and experimental probability (probability based of a finite number of attempts), and then slapping the idea that probabilities are dependent because experimental probabilities change as an experiment progresses. That doesn't mean the events are dependent of each other, that means that the sample size of your experiment is too small to give you numbers close to a theoretical probability.

Aura, results from the first won't change the chances on the second, but you can't win 9 in 10 unless you rig it. It is a chance that is virtually impossible. Assuming in each raffle participated 5 people, because it is usually arounnd 5, you have 0.2^9*0.8. You can calculate that...

0.2^9, but yes, it is statistically improbable for this to occur. I never said that I disagreed with this statement (nor was I in any means intending to address you with the second comment of the thread), but if you actually saw this occurring than rigging or, more likely, some other non-traditional odds would be at play. But it would be nice to see evidence that shows this actually happened.

You cannot completely rig the raffle, but you can increase your chances to win. Here are some ways how to do it, based on and empirical observations and statistics.

RaffleBot prefers name starting with a certain letter. L is great, M is another choice. I've won once 10 coins after changing my name to "Mr Kris", despite no luck for a long time. However, offensive, pretentious or very long names do the converse.

Be active in chat. The RaffleBot was added to make the chat more vivid and it analyzes how much people talk. It counts words (only real ones!), but be careful - a series of monologue chats drops your chances. RaffleBot does not like this.

If this is the case, than it could be very well that no rigging is going on even if someone wins nine times in a row from a pool of five. That person might just be simply be either extremely social or manipulating the bot's algorithm, without having to even code to hack or rig it.

Id be curious to see what fizzer says about how rafflebot functions.

Edited 7/14/2019 17:25:11

Do not insult the Rafflebot.

I can't provide evidence because chat history is only 100 messages. Everyone can follow it while it lasts. He isn't usually talking in the chat either.

Why does RaffleBot rarely end raffles with "You are all ruthless!"?