It's very tight right now in the top. Most games up there are decided by luck IMO. Every now and then the bots make an obvious mistake that a human player wouldn't, but most of the time they are competent.
I'd be surprised if anyone can take their bot to a next level.TREMBLE.
Sometimes I see games where the winning bot just got plain lucky but the vast majority of defeats aren't necessary. Let's point out some easy to fix mistakes and skip those more tough ones:
Pedrito vs SupremeDalek:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/5367642c4b5ab235189fc55bTurn 4: Supreme Dalek takes Australia in one turn instead of defending South America
Turn 7: Unnecessary risk taking with taking Africa in one turn by Supreme Dalek
--> SupremeDalek got lucky in this game.
Trogabot vs psWarlighter:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/536746814b5ab235189fc2cdTurn 4: An 8v2 neutrals attack should happen before an irrelevant transfer move.
Turn 10: Same problem with psWarlighter doing his transfers first and then attacking the neutrals. Didn't have any effect though.
--> Trogabot lost because of his turn 4 mistake.
Trogabot vs KewaKareban:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/5366e7744b5ab235189fba6bDuring the whole game Trogabot reveals his problems with expanding efficiently. If the opponent had been smart enough to move towards the known opponent spots in Australia Trogabot would have lost. Turn 4 it was an easy win for KewaKareban.
--> Game not won on luck
pedrito vs RaptorBot:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/536746124b5ab235189fc2c4Pedrito knew the opponent had South America. The current version of SupremeDalek would have walked around the stack.
--> Unnecessara stalemate.
pedrito vs Trogabot:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/5366b2114b5ab235189fb5d3Unnecessary stalemate. If Trogabot had attacked that Africa spot he would have won.
Gadzbot vs Trogabot:
http://theaigames.com/competitions/warlight-ai-challenge/games/53673bd14b5ab235189fc1e0Gadzbot is the only bot pulling off counterpicks at present.
I don't have a game at present but most bots just deploy to the opponent border instead of deploying to a bigger stack in the background and moving the big stack first order to the border.