Do we really have the evidence to suggest that players from 2013 "haven't kept up with the times"?

Well, we have one of them saying he knows everything already and another acting like it by insulting people for trying to learn.

So...ya?

Well maybe Warzone isn't as complex or strategic as we make it out to be. If you look at predicted vs. actual win rates on the 1v1 ladder, you'll find that a rating advantage of 125 when your rating is 1600 is actually about as meaningful as a rating advantage of 200 when your rating is 1800 (I might have the exact numbers off, but in either case the closer your rating is to average the more meaningful a given rating advantage is).

This is the opposite of what you'd see in chess, where players closer to average (1500-1700) tend to underperform their Elo rating predictions while players higher up (2300-2500) tend to be pretty close to matching them. In other words, in chess gaps near the average are exaggerated and gaps close to the edges are underestimated- and this suggests that there's actually higher kurtosis in chess; the distribution of skill is taller/wider than the Normal distribution. E.g., the kurtosis of this blue line distribution (the logistic distribution) is higher than the kurtosis of the big red one (the Normal distribution):



If we see the opposite trend in Warzone, then perhaps that suggests the opposite- the Normal distribution overestimates kurtosis, and the tails are smaller than Elo ratings assume. Maybe players at the edges aren't really all that far from the average player- at least not as far as their rating suggests. Maybe Warzone isn't a skill-driven as we assume and after a certain point of avoiding relatively fundamental flaws + doing some advanced optimizations that exploit the choices given to you by game settings, it becomes more of a rock-paper-scissors-style crapshoot where the biggest advantage is in figuring out your opponent's mind instead of taking advantage of a strategic feature of the game.

It's clear to see Wally Balls has a advanced theology about the fundamentals of the game. Though it's ironic you are calling him a "dinosaur" when he has played MDL , Quickmatch , Seasonal ladders. In all 3 he's sucessfully "crushed" or atleast played to not make him a "dinosaur" like someone Szewenigen.

Even so.. What does your advanced theology have to do with the thread topic? What you are describing sounds to me like the use of an AI which has been explored and it's at a low level at the moment because of the complexity of the game mechanics.

There's just so much misunderstanding going on here...

"Playing qm a lot gives you an advantage to a certain point. Once you exceed that and you lose almost 10 points to anyone if you lose, no matter the rating, it's kinda hard to keep up. You should play again and try it out. Qm is a lot of fun currently. Great competition there unlike ladders."

Yeah, I understand there's a point where people will be unable to raise until the average rating rises and everyone's ceiling goes up.

1 L65 master of desaster 683.9
2 L61 alexclusive 680.7
3 L63 AWESOMEGUY 615.7
4 L61 Wini 569.2
5 L54 Jeff " Not a supreme leader" Erspin 513.2
6 L61 {{NeRo}} 511.4
7 L39 Othello 507.5
8 L55 The Endless Zero 495.1
9 L62 sloppyfatginger 482.7
10 L37 Hallbergs härskare 474.7
11 L55 IHateEverySinglewarlightPlayerOnTheEntirePlanet 466.9
12 L62 Swisster 462.8
13 L58 machine-washed bliss 460.8
14 L62 Nemo 426.0
15 L59 Octane 421.0
16 L60 CONQUISTADORS 411.8
17 L64 Timinator • apex 411.5
18 L63 Vendetta 408.8
19 L63 rakleader 407.0
20 L60 Xenophon 400.3
21 L62 Muli 392.0
22 L57 wrongdoer 389.3
23 L37 TheUberElite 379.4

But as an example, there's a lot of people there who could still raise their template rating a lot if they played more. Some have hit their "cap", others could still rise substantially, and it's not always easy to know which are which.

Sloppy told me he can't rise any higher, I imagine that's true for muli as well as I know he plays a lot, but beyond those two I'm not sure anyone else has hit their cap. I hadn't played WZ in about 3 months, but was rank 33, and after winning 6 games I got up to rank 23, I'm sure I can keep raising, but I'm not sure how high Id be able to raise without it turning into a struggle.

I'm guessing alexclusive as played a lot more than you actually as I beat alexclusive very close to 50% across a decent sample size and I don't think he's anywhere near as good as you are.

Similarly my global rating is like 530 atm, I struggled to pass 500 3 months ago, yet am guessing I can it 800-900 now. QM ratings seem to inflate a lot wit the average players ratings.

Edited 2/25/2018 22:58:03

"Well, we have one of them saying he knows everything already and another acting like it by insulting people for trying to learn."

which are thise 2 players your refering to?

Theology? I think you meant theory...

I don't think we can dismiss Wally Balls' assumptions offhand. Maybe it's actually worth exploring how much of Warzone strategy there is left to discover. It might be the case that Warzone has been essentially figured out (in terms of inherent strategic features, not opponent prediction) by a small subset of players and we're just stuck in an era where there's N players who can beat just about everyone else (e.g., MotD, mod, Timinator, Buns, timon92, and QB) but this group doesn't get substantially better over time and the elite strategic community as a whole stagnates too, 'cause we've already found some sort of local (or global) optimum.

I'm of course nowhere near that level, so I can't really speak with insight about this... but I think the case could be made that maybe this game isn't all that comparable to chess. Maybe if you train a deep RNN to play Warlight it won't find a better optimum, 'cause there isn't one or it's rather elusive, and it'll just hit maybe 2400 on the 1v1 ladder. It could just be the case that most of what we perceive as growth in this game has come from:

1. More players joining

2. Old players retiring to get replaced by a new strategic class

So we have the impression of skill-level growth but it's really just change.

Edited 2/25/2018 23:05:48

Nauz the template ratings are clearly still defined by how much you play cause as long as you're below 400 you win double the points than you lose. So eventually every average player should hit 400 at some point.

Wally i didn't say i have a solution to the game. I just know what there is to know about gameplay. If you want to prove me something else, i dare you to do so.

I'm glad this thread brought Nauz out of retirement, just in time for clan league too.

I started playing QM two days ago, nothing to do with this thread.

I welcome everyone asking questions. The funny thing is when someone doesn't know a lot but pretends he does in the next second. You ARE funny wally. Solving a game has nothing to do with what i said. Are you maybe a politican in murica? Your debating skills are just right for that.

which are thise 2 players your refering to?

buns and master of desaster

when someone doesn't know a lot but pretends he does

Asking a question you consider basic doesn't mean that person doesn't know a lot.

For example, if I ask what is the capital of California, that doesn't mean I do not know the capitals of the other 49 states and a million other things, it just means I don't know the capital of California.

Many people do this on Warlight, they think 'if you don't know THAT then you suck'

That's not always the case.

Especially when that person is not interested in looking smart on the forum and is interested in learning.

I'll continue asking what others consider stupid questions, while being able to crush nearly all of those who insult me for it.

Edited 2/25/2018 23:16:51

Great counter argument. I'm speechless.

did buns pm this to you?

What does your advanced theology have to do with the thread topic?

As much as people using this as an opportunity to share their thoughts on how 'not good' I am, I guess.

I don't have all the answers for what perfect gameplay looks like. But I know the best theoretical players are far better than anyone who plays today. And I'll keep learning to try and get there as long Fizzer doesn't change the name to WarMAGA.

Edited 2/25/2018 23:24:39

Any list that doesn't have Quicksilver at number 1 is automatically disqualified

did buns pm this to you?

No. See roughly 100% of the questions I've asked in the strategy forum. He always responds insulting me for asking questions. It's the same attitude master of desaster has. 'Good' players (all 2 of them), don't need to ask questions, they already know everything.

Thanks Xeno.

But you were the one who won CL9 for Masters.

So, I'll take second place after you.