1st ANT: Very strong bonus like this 2nd: SA: Secures ANT and has a very strong position. Important to have a counter to Africa. 3rd: Scandi: Quick bonus that gives access to Greenland. Could also be used to counter Greenland. 4th: Greenland: If I miss scandi I still want to be in the area. Plus it is imo pretty likely I'll miss either my first or second pick, so this makes sure I either get both Scandi and Greenland or I have info on one of the two boni 5th: East Africa 6th: West Africa.
I'm not entirely happy with these picks, but I haven't found a nice set yet. :/
1,2 SA,ANT is good, but can it beat 1,2 West china, Russia? The latter has a decent chance of +7 (West China) after turn 2. If that lands then there's a chance of +6 (Russia) after turn 4. That's 18 to deploy on turn 5, and a chance nobody is near the income. Nasty.
Turn 1 you need 2 times to lose only 1 army on the attack (60% chance to lose only 1. If you take the 3rd chance in account that percentage is slightly higher) gives 36% for that already. Also, you need a 3vs2 to work first turn (80% chance). Turn 2 you need another 3 attacks of 3vs2 to work (80% each). That all vombined gives 14.7%, which would be slightly lower than the true value since i just calculated the first turn with 2 attacks who have both to lose only 1 army instead of 3 attacks of whose only 2 lose min armies.
Edit: it's not 75% wr or something, just 0%wr i think, so the suggested percentages for 4, 5 etc armies are wrong
Yes, I think the true odds are much closer to 15% than 41%. So the West China combo is probably no good.
I like the way you described your calculation: it's practical. However, for the sake of math (not practicality), I think the figures I gave are correct? They assume 0% WR and three attacks of at least 3 on turn 1. In each attack, the 2 neutrals kill an expected 2*.7(defensive kill rate) = 1.4 armies. The WR setting resolves this to 1 whole army 60% of the time and 2 whole armies 40% of the time. So in each attack either 1 or 2 player armies are lost.
So in 3 attacks the possible outcomes are 3,4,5,6 armies lost, right?