Like master of desaster said, get a bonus by turn 2. I wasn't even thinking about a bonus on turn 1. The only possible bonus I could have gone for was East China but even there I was worried about him being in Thailand, so I didn't even move that turn 1.
I'm not a huge fan of how your picks ended up, but as others have said before you need to plan on getting that 2nd turn bonus.
You knew he couldn't take crussia since you have double border + 4 armies there already, he can ftb camerica (but you hadn't thought of it so should have made you even happier about leaving it alone 1st turn).
If he does have ftb he must hit cuba with 5 1st turn and take the other 2 with 3vs2s, you have 1st order so can either go for dodge into Colombia for info (you will see him take both and good guess he has ftb) and for positioning next turn so he doesn't clear you next turn since he will play defensively and hit venezuela last order on 2nd turn
If he doesn't have ftb he probably knows you are in samerica so risky for him to try and finish it in 2 turns in front of you, especially since he can't finish camerica + another bonus in 2 turns given where the starts are, apart from sea + middle east combo which is impossible (since you know crussia) In which case you want info on if he moves into Panama and it makes him think you might be trying to finish samerica which is good.
Therefore I would go Colombia 1st turn with 3 (he wont see you move since you know you have 1st order on turn 1) as my first choice of the move.
Now concerning your income you need to be in a position to take echina turn 2, so you need to deploy 3 there 1st turn which you can use to check Hong Kong to see if he is in Thailand and also take Shanghai.
This is safe if he is in SEA because he cannot finish any bonus if he is as you have full intel now about all armies picks and turn order. If he is not in SEA then 2nd turn you want to deploy 5 to Echina to finish it (but can decide not to if you can see he won't get a 2nd turn bonus either).
With the other 2 income you can either deploy it in Echina turn 1 so you can deploy it wherever it is needed turn 2, or you can deploy it to smaerica so you have a larger stack which he sees so goes less aggressively and changes tactics.
I would go 5 into Colombia first, then 3 to shanghai then 3 to hongkong as my turn 1 move. Will take Echina 2nd turn with all, if he takes camerica turn 1 then I transfer only armies back to venezuela 1st order, and finish Echina.
If he doesnt take both in camerica then I put armies in samerica on the border I do have with him (if he isn't in either I move them back to look like I didnt move into colombia) then move towards scan 2nd order (only feasible other bonus) then finish echina.
After that all moves are depending on the situation, will probably have borders in crussia and camerica, maybe scan if he didnt ftb. Then it's about predicting and staying alive. Slight income advantage make sure he doesnt take camerica if he has scan ake sure he doesnt take crussia if he ftb'd.
EDIT: The 1st turn move into camerica isn't my favourite choice, I would go last order with 8 if I was to do it, more of a fan of letting them kill neutrals than me, since I assume he wont stack as large.
Edited 4/27/2016 13:24:34