Don't be so sure the GOP won't try a coup to oust Donald on the Convention Floor. They know its political suicide, but the GOP establishment doesn't care. RNC and big money donors are hosting a rules conference to potentially change some of the rules for a contested convention. Cleveland is spending $50 million in riot gear for the convention. And if Kasich and Cruz get enough delegates, then Trump might not get a majority.

For the Democratic side its over. Just raise your right hand now and swear fealty to Killary Klinton.

I'm gonna sound overly optimistic, but I think Bernie still has a good chance to defeat Hillary. She's only got one or two states left that she should win, and if Bernie wins California and the Pacific, he's right back tied up. Hillary only has New York and one or two others at most the way it's looking.

The Donald on the other hand...we're all dead.

I think Trump has to win outright. Or they'll simply elect someone else. He has to make it to 1,279, that magic number.

nah, it's over.

I hope not Trump is a great man and it will be ever so amusing to watch America's downward spiral.

^ You'd want Sanders for a downward spiral.

As a fellow aussie, its funny how we seem to like China so much more than we used to

As a fellow aussie, its funny how we seem to like China so much more than we used to

Just curious...is this actually true? And if so, why?

Over the last few years we have signed a bunch of agreements with China and other countries in the area, and seem to be moving into being more of an Asia-Pacific country generally.

Good for you guys. All the wealth is moving to Far East Asia. Obama was supposed to turn America's economic and military focus to East Asia with the Asia Pivot, but that was a hopeless failure since ISIS came onto the scene.

since ISIS came onto the scene.

Yeah, since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere, with no foreign funding.

Since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere
http://buzzvirality.com/entertainment/no-ones-safe-from-the-rko-outta-nowhere-our-10-favourites/10/

Yeah, since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere, with no foreign funding.

Why are you so good at misrepresentation. Did I say "out of nowhere"? I was simply referring to the fact that the dissolution of Syria-Iraq and the entrance of ISIS onto the world stage as a credible and important global security threat caused the Obama administration to essentially give up its Asia Pivot plan.

Edited 3/17/2016 01:41:54

nah,

Sanders is a pipe dream on the democrat side. it's never going to happen. no matter what happens, there are still too many democrats who understand how money works.

Cruz has a far better shot at unseating Trump than Sanders does Clinton, but it's still not likely to happen. Trump has basically reached critical mass at this point. And the Republicans are not going to try any convention heroics to unseat Trump either mainly because the Republicans are by and large cowards.

The race will be between Clinton and Trump. I could not in good conscience vote for either of them, so I would have to vote 3rd party. I'm quite certain Clinton comes out on top and I believe that would probably be for the best because at least the Republicans will have the good sense to fight her. I would be worried that if Trump got in, the Republicans might go along with him just because he was one of their own.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

what the hell? Isil is the proper name

Shut up

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Why are you so good at misrepresentation. Did I say "out of nowhere"? I was simply referring to the fact that the dissolution of Syria-Iraq and the entrance of ISIS onto the world stage as a credible and important global security threat caused the Obama administration to essentially give up its Asia Pivot plan.

Was drunk; 10/10 word choice. Think you mean "misinterprestation", matee. But call it what it is, Obama supported it.

Trump's now at 96% of his delegate targets. This means that:

- if Kasich stays in the race, and
- if Kasich pulls substantially more voters from Trump than from Cruz, and
- if Trump's not able to get half of all delegates

OR

- if Kasich drops from the race, and
- if Kasich's voters migrate to Cruz substantially moreso than they do to Trump, and
- if Cruz gets a majority of all delegates

There's going to be a contested convention. Kasich likely won't come out on top here, but Cruz has a shot (right now he's the clear leader in endorsements- this lead will only substantially increase now that Rubio's gone) at getting the nomination instead of Trump as long as he's either got more momentum going forward or is just very close to 50% (maybe even closer to it than Trump, although that's unlikely) the party can pull this trick without fragmenting itself or having to worry about a third-party Trump bid.

But based on betting markets, a Trump presidency is about twice as likely as any other nominee winning- so this scenario isn't likely to happen.

what confuses me is why Clinton is running away with the African-American vote.. Especially considering Obama got 91% of their votes when running against her. I would have thought Sanders message would resonate well with them. Apparently not, anyone know what he said wrong? I've not found any reason why online

@indibob:

Clinton's 2016 coalition is Obama's 2008 coalition. Sanders' 2016 coalition is Clinton's 2008 coalition.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-who-like-obama-like-clinton/

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/clinton-south-carolina/471276/

That said, Clinton's lead among African-Americans might have been overestimated a bit (it was only 2:1 in Michigan when polls suggested 4:1 going in; then again, Michigan seems to be an isolated incident rather than a representative of the entire Midwest and certainly doesn't reflect the entire country).

But her lead can't be explained based on policy positions alone- as Killer Mike and Ta-Nehisi Coates would argue, Bernie's policies on issues like reparations are in many ways more African-American-friendly than Hillary's. There's an NPR segment you should check out:

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/01/468185698/understanding-the-clintons-popularity-with-black-voters

Personally, I just think it's because, well, Bernie's that guy. The one that happens every election cycle- that candidate whose voterbase is largely white, college-educated twentysomethings because their policy position/policy message as a whole isn't that fleshed out and their views are tilted far from mainstream but resonate a lot with the ideologies younger voters have begun to experiment with (the ones where they differ sharply from other demographic groups). And that guy usually has a big following among white twenty-something males while the official liberal candidate throws their weight behind better-known, more widely-accepted policy positions within their political group and just inherits the remainder- the mainstream of their party that's not too serious about ideology and whatnot but just trusts the general group.

Edited 3/17/2016 06:49:41