Apologies in advance for a very long post. Hopefully it makes a somewhat informative pre-season read...
Firstly, I don't want to confuse anyone when I mention slots. For example, a 3v3 Round Robin (RR) Tournament with 6 teams has 3 slots per team, not 15 slots; the RR format ensures every team plays 5 games.
As such, for this league and this post I count 11 player slots to fill, each to play 5 games (55 slots if you prefer) and each player predefined to play either 1 or 2 slots (5 or 10 games). Now that that's clarified, we can continue.
The league will comprise of 4 1v1s, 2 2v2s, 1 3v3 Round Robin Tournaments ... Each 1v1 will be worth 3 points, each 2v2 4 points and each 3v3 5 points. The club with the maximum total points at the end of the season wins the championship!!
Each club has a 'maximum attainable point value' over the season;
4*(5*3 pts)=60 pts to be won in 20 1v1s; (4 RR)*(1 slot) [1v1 Season Total: 4*15*3pts=180pts]
2*(5*4 pts)=40 pts to be won in 10 2v2s; (2 RR)*(2 slots) [2v2 Season Total: 2*15*4pts=120pts]
1*(5*5 pts) =25 pts to be won in 5 3v3s; (1 RR)*(3 slots) [3v3 Season Total: 1*15*5pts= 75pts]
Available points per club: 125pts
Available points, per RR Tournament, per club: 1v1:15pts, 2v2:20pts, 3v3:25pts
[Season Totals: Points Total of all 6 clubs combined. Calculated with knowledge that each six entity Round Robin tournament will have 15 games/winners/losers.]
This revealed a significant thing or two about the scoring system. The 1v1s hold almost as much 'maximum attainable point value' as 2v2 and 3v3 combined. It arguably enables individuals to carry their club, if a manager's choice is to prioritise their top players for 1v1 tournaments. Note how some of the best 1v1 players have been bought for well over base price. However if all managers invest so heavily in the 1v1 tournaments, then these players could well face the toughest opponents and are arguably
unable to carry their teams as well as managers may have hoped. How managers chose to allocate their players will no doubt be crucial.
Here, I look at certain elements of the concept at some length, wondering if certain changes may be considered for future seasons. Adjusting 1v1:2v2:3v3 games to score 1pts:2pts:3pts per win gives a maximum attainable point ratio of 20pts:20pts:15pts, and 1:2:4 gives 20:20:20. Compare this with the current 60:40:25. Would it be better to weight the scoring in a way that forces managers to value each tournament 'type' more evenly? Currently, it is clear that 1v1 is the greatest opportunity to win the club points and the potential 60 points at stake will not be low priority. A club that scores 63 of their available 125 points guarantees mathematical safety from a last place finish; more on mathematical safety later.
The current format puts higher value in team games but it's slightly diminished by having fewer of them, as the above ratios show. I'm unsure how this format was chosen, but for the 2nd season or at least the 3rd (when most players will be re-released into the market), I would prefer to see only three 1v1 tournaments and an additional 3v3 or perhaps 2v2. My reason is that it's currently rather predictable that the weakest players in a club roster will feature in 3v3 and possibly 2v2. It's a risky strategy to feature two or three of the club's most expensive players, all of whom thereafter limited to one other tournament (assuming players are of 2-slot availability). There's more sense in allocating top players to as many of the 7 RR tournaments as possible.
It would be nice to see 2v2 and 3v3 as fiercely contested as 1v1. This may well be the strategy of a gutsy manager, but I have my doubts, though I hope to be proven wrong. I suppose part of the challenge will be for the manager to handle the situation as best they can. For example, if a manager could secure players for 1-slot (5-games) near base price, they could reserve expensive players for priority tournaments (whatever they may be) and still maintain a strong enough presence for those tournaments that remain.
This brings me onto 1-slot (5-game) players. The concept stated that 1-slot options would have lower return on investment but I have not yet seen how. Base prices are 50% and so two 1-slot players have equal value to a 2-slot player. Salaries are derived as a percentage of price and income is unaffected. Unsurprisingly, many players available for 1 slot, have been snapped up. Some of these prices however are very surprising. Whether 2-slot or 1-slot, every Tier 3 player and above deserved a bid at base price (which is clearly below true value). In doing so, some clubs have scooped some absolute steals from the top tiers.
With a season comprising of 375 points to be divided between 6 clubs (see 'Season Totals' near beginning), every club should target 63 of their maximum attainable 125 points to guarantee mathematical safety from relegation (assuming only one relegation place);
A club that scores 63pts is safe from relegation: 63+63+63+63+63+63=378
Every club cannot score a final total of 63 points; in order to achieve the total of 375 available points, 3 points must be deducted from at least one club. As a result, there will be at least one club with fewer than 63 points and this club would be relegated.
A club that scores 62pts is at risk of relegation: 62+62+62+62+62+62=372
If every club has scored a total of 62 points, 3 points of the available 375 remain to be allocated, and the possibility remains to be in joint last place with 62 points.
It would not be outside of reasonable possibility to speculate the season end league table will look something like the example below.
Club A: 75 With 125 points available to each club, there are numerous variations of the table finish. The season
Club B: 73 will likely establish 'top-medium-low' club levels. It should provide a sufficient range in total points
Club C: 65 to determine two well earned places for promotion/relegation; the very unrealistic worst case
Club D: 57 scenario is 3 clubs tie for the championship with 63 pts and the bottom 3 clubs tie with 62 pts, thus
Club E: 53 resulting in unclear 'deserving' places. Whether we promote/relegate one place or two, it will be just
Club F: 52 as likely to encounter level points in the league table, so it should not affect the decision.
Promoted clubs will always fight to avoid relegation the following season, and relegated clubs will look to bounce back. With only one place available, it could feel more restrictive and difficult for second division clubs; a promoted club would have a tough task surviving relegation the following season if completely outclassed by all other clubs. Two promoted clubs would at least offer each other a more equal opponent in the top division. The league may become slightly lopsided if both promoted clubs are outclassed, but I would argue it's still better than one club alone being outclassed which would be miserable. Due to separate auctions, I suspect second division teams will always be at a fairly moderate disadvantage after promotion, at least until the next major auction post Season 2, after which the distribution of ability will hopefully be more even. Of course the second division was never initially planned for, so for now, its fair to expect a fairly rough campaign for the season after promotion.
I personally see little downside to the proposition of two promotion/relegation places; more evident are it's benefits which add more opportunity and motivation for the second division and more drama and concern for the top division. A boost in all-round excitement and determination is more than welcome. I don't see any new,
long-term complications that would arise.
Club A: 75 With two relegation places, mathematical safety is affected. The target points total for each club
Club B: 75 should be 76 points. Assuming the extreme case that one club loses every game, and the remaining
Club C: 75 five clubs share the Season Total of 375 points, we then have the following scenario on the left. This
Club D: 75 scenario shows how 75 points is not necessarily enough to avoid relegation. Also note that it is
Club E: 75 impossible to score 76 points and finish in the bottom two places. As soon as you attempt to adjust
Club F: 0 one of the scores to 76, two clubs inevitably will have scores lower than 76 points and be relegated.
There is still yet to be clear information on how the league position of clubs who are level on points will be decided; something that should be announced before managers submit their lineups. Logically, I had assumed we would inspect the total number of individual games won, but I fear the setup arguably already encourages prioritising the numerous 1v1s. Total wins being the tie-breaker would only further encourage this. Perhaps in the event of level points we could inspect the sum of the total 3v3 and 2v2 wins, and if still tied, only then the total 1v1 wins? This order of scrutiny would help somewhat in countering those clubs who may have under prioritised the team games in favour of 1v1.
Disclaimer: Try as I might to not be, I may well be wrong about all of the above :/
Edited 3/2/2016 21:51:54