Fizzer what's your opinion on all of this?

"If one hundred people buy a membership I won't vote for Trump" - Fizzer 2016

Lol dude, Obama and liberals was calling it obamacare back in the days when it was a high tech advancement idea. Now that's it's falling apart and nobody wants it, liberals and Obama are desperate to get it back to the ACA ( Affordable care act )

http://www.gallup.com/poll/187607/donald-trump-known-not-liked.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Based on favorability ratings, Rubio seems to have an edge over Cruz. He hasn't even drifted negative yet.

LOL I swear if Rubio wins by playing the card "I'm the least hated" the DNC is gonna have a field day with him come general election time. Republicans are right when they call him the Republican Obama. He's got a winning smile and a good voice. That's not the qualifications for a man in the white house. If Rubio wins the GOP nomination and then the general election (almost always the party that's controlled the White House for 8 years loses) we will have another war in the middle east with US ground troops. That's a full proof bet. Rubio still thinks foreign policy is a game of warlight. He's too young and too full of noise. #StandWithRand #NoMoreNeocons

And lol screw Gallup....they don't even include Rand Paul in their polling!! He's still a candidate you know!!

Edited 1/5/2016 01:41:46

Rand Paul's chances are pretty low TBH. He had a good run early on but much like what happened with his father's campaign he's now running out of steam.

At this point only Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson have high enough poll numbers to pull through (And Carson's spot is extremely shaky).

Everyone else is so low in poll numbers it's hardly worth mentioning.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/

This is also a super-worthwhile read- especially the very first part. Not strictly relevant to the primary, of course- but Hillary vs. Rubio could totally rek the Democrats' complacency this time and force them to try again instead of acting like their having the presidency puts the GOP on some path to extinction.

Knyte you may also like this (idk if you already linked it): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

The simulator is pretty cool (I can't judge the accuracy of it though). According to the article minority votes are being way overvalued, since the voting electorate is largely made up of Whites. Add to that the historically low voter participation of Asians and Hispanics (pre-Obama years) and you have a pretty open door for a Republican win. Although the Republicans have made huge strides with Asian-American voters with the Republican Hindu Coalition vowing to spend up to $10 million in battleground states with Asian-American swing vote coalitions. I think there are a ton of variables that could throw this race into total confusion...I have a feeling the white voter turnout may also reach record highs in 2016 (maybe near 67% or above).

Cruz. I'm voting Sanders but he won't win. Cruz wins it all is my prediction.

@Jai: FiveThirtyEight's version is way cooler: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

^^I saw that one yesterday. You're way better at stats...I have no idea which one is more accurate in methodology (actually I don't even know if you could check that...I think Real Clear Politics linked their methodology).

it would be +13 votes for the republicans, but Fairfax is still being Washington's bitch.

Both list their methodology, but I haven't read either one. I'm just a sucker for FiveThirtyEight- and realistically, anyone in the Statisticians clan is way more qualified to comment than I am.

You were in Statisticians clan no?? Well your main account was!