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When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 03:01:26

smileyleg 
Level 61
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BONUS       	TOTAL	T 1	T 2	T 3	T 4	T 5	T 6+	AVG
Scandinavian Pe	24.5	6.0	5.8	2.0	2.1	1.9	6.7	4.4
Southeast Asia	18.9	6.7	3.5	1.5	1.2	0.8	5.2	4.4
Central Russia	12.5	1.1	1.2	0.6	0.9	1.1	7.7	7.5
West Africa 	12.3	1.6	1.9	0.6	0.8	1.0	6.4	6.4
Antarctica  	12.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	1.0	0.9	2.7	3.9
South America	12.0	0.2	2.2	1.3	1.0	1.4	5.8	6.4
Central America	11.6	4.7	2.0	0.9	0.7	0.5	2.9	4.2
East Africa 	11.1	0.8	1.4	0.6	0.8	1.2	6.4	7.2
West Russia 	10.7	1.5	1.6	0.7	1.1	1.2	4.7	6.2
Indonesia   	8.9 	0.2	2.3	0.7	1.0	0.9	3.9	6.3
South Africa	8.6 	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.7	6.7	8.7
North Africa	8.5 	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.6	6.5	9.4
East China  	7.4 	0.7	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.4	2.4	5.4
Caucasus    	7.2 	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.1	5.2	8.4
West China  	2.5 	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.9	9.3
Australia   	2.4 	0.0	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.1	6.2
Middle East 	2.0 	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.7	10.9
Greenland   	1.8 	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.9	7.0
West US	        1.3 	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1	10.2
Canada	        1.2 	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	11.1
Europe	        1.1 	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0	9.8
East US	        0.7 	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	10.1
East Russia 	0.4 	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	11.8

TOTAL = % of games bonus is taken (ever)
T 1   = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 1
T 2   = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 2
T 3   = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 3
T 4   = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 4
T 5   = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 5
T 6+  = % of games bonus is taken in Turn 6 or later
AVG   = When bonus is taken, average turn number



Analysis is from 10,000+ recent 1v1 ladder games.

(I was pretty bored...)
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 03:14:32


almosttricky 
Level 61
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Interesting, I am suprised by some of the rankings here.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 03:44:21


Dublin Warrior 
Level 49
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cool analysis. :)
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 05:46:49


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Australia and Greenland are less popular than Caucasus? I love those 2 bonuses though..
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 05:49:59


Sephiroth 
Level 60
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im only surprised by greenland < middle east and aus < caucasus and west china
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 06:36:57


Krzysztof 
Level 66
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@Lolo an Sephiroth - there are almost 300 randked players in 1v1 - wierd things happen in some games between low-rated players
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 07:35:32


hedja 
Level 58
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I see what others think are odd, but South and North Africa both higher than East China? Wut?
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 07:44:16


Master of the Dead 
Level 63
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I'm assuming you wrote some code to calculate this. Would you mind sharing?

Also would it be possible to run this on all non-expired games of the top 50 ranked players on the ladder?
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 07:56:48


knyte 
Level 58
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^ Also back that request to view the code. Is there any part of it I could use without being a Member? I can't tell whether you used the WL API to do this or some other scraping techniques.

It'd be really cool if you could share it as a Gist on GitHub.

Edited 6/9/2015 07:57:13
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 12:06:38

smileyleg 
Level 61
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Sure, I will post the code on GitHub later.

It's basically in two parts: some Groovy code to pull the histories from the API, parse the JSON, and insert it into a SQL database, and then some SQL code to turn it into something useful.

MotD: I will do a run with the top-ranked players. I will have to manually make a table of players to include or something because as far as I can tell there's no way to get player info through the API. (The histories unfortunately do not include the lobby message like "Player 1 ranked 12th with a rating of 2000 versus ...")


I am surprised that Caucasus is completed 3x more often than Australia.

Also that a FTB is captured in about 20% of games. (This is somewhat less I'm sure as some of those games both players would capture one.)
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 15:12:28


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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@Krzychu: So weird that Caucasus is finished 3x more often than GL and Aus? o.o
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/9/2015 15:52:44


Beren • apex 
Level 63
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I know when I first started playing I like Caucasus a lot. I initially played mostly on the Earth map, not Medium Earth, and on that map Caucasus is 6 income for 6 territories.

I also think a lot of beginners don't realize the value of having a bonus that's hard to get to. They think in general more about getting high income, rather than in terms of winning the game. Caucasus is good for getting a high income, since it's adjacent to several bonuses with good income-territory ratios. The problem, of course is that it's almost impossible to defend.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/10/2015 17:18:42


NinjaNic 
Level 58
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How did you analyze this? Did you go through hundreds of games, or do you have a program to do this for you?
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/10/2015 19:10:58


[REGL] Pooh 
Level 60
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A different take... What bonuses did the Winner take? The Loser?
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/10/2015 23:41:52


ℳℛᐤƬrαńɋℰ✕
Level 57
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@NinjaNic

For the love of Warlight, read the thread. Its not even past a page and you can´t skim 14 posts? Read few posts before yours.

A few questions about analysis? If you count the turns taken and average of captured bonuses - do you include these games as well when neither of player chose particual bonus as their starting point. If i am not mistaken then current average shows the one where bonus were not picked as starting as well.

If 1vs1 ranking would not be with wasteland and random warlords there could be possibility to carry a full analysis about bonuses-territories which lead to most victory. Current settings has too big blind factor calculated in. But in general good idea.

Edited 6/10/2015 23:53:41
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 00:27:25

dannyB
Level 60
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What a fun sampling. Thanks for doing it!
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 03:17:37

smileyleg 
Level 61
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I plan to break it down by starting bonuses, and also winners and losers.

Also I realized there was an error in the calculations--I will post a corrected one soon.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 08:10:27


Pink 
Level 60
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A NEW CONSPIRACY BY FIZZER


I har replied to this thread and i cant find my post now, fizer deleted it, its outrageous.

Or perhaps i forgot to press submit
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 09:11:06

DanWL 
Level 62
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^ That's happened to me 4 times before.

What did you post earlier?
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 12:38:06


ps 
Level 60
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I will have to manually make a table of players to include or something because as far as I can tell there's no way to get player info through the API. (The histories unfortunately do not include the lobby message like "Player 1 ranked 12th with a rating of 2000 versus ...")


you should mail this to fizzer, he might be able to add some extra meta data or api call for you on the next update.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 14:15:55


Genghis 
Level 54
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I was not expecting southeast Asia to surpass scand in first turn bonus!

Like all else, Caucasus surprised me too.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/11/2015 16:35:57


Punching Bag (^_^;)
Level 57
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well, if you look at the placement of those two bonuses, scandinavia has 3 adjoining bonuses. Southeast Asia has 5, which apparently more than makes up for the slightly reduced connectivity between its bonuses.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/13/2015 10:03:55

GZ1A
Level 40
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wow
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/13/2015 21:50:47


[ESP] Pablo García
Level 58
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Why do you see strange Caucasus? In the Earth map it's one of the best ones, and in the Modified Earth it comes really soon after West and Central Russia, two bonuses I really like. On the other hand I hate Australia xD

But those likes and dislikes probably are influenced by the Earth map and its 4-per-7/8 Aussie bonus
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/13/2015 23:31:09


Master Miyagi • apex 
Level 59
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North and South Africa before East China? Why/....
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/14/2015 07:30:37


wakanarai 
Level 58
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africa is before east china in the lower ranks i think since some of them just go for the double or even triple in africa there
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/14/2015 21:07:29

Kantos
Level 60
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can u use that code to look at Alaska, Hawaii, Japan and Korea?
Canada before Europe O_O
Europe is a better bonus in my opinion.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/14/2015 21:26:50


his balls. 
Level 60
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West Africa is so rarely better than south America.

This data just shows how bad so many players are.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/15/2015 00:42:57


knyte 
Level 58
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Hmm, you might also want to rerun this and account for wastelands if you didn't already do so the first time.
When are bonuses captured? Analysis of 1v1 Ladder: 6/22/2015 21:01:24

Hennns
Level 58
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This was really cool to see :D

You said you'd post a corrected version soon and post the code on github, I'm eager for an update :)

Also, can you use this for other cool stuff, like which territories are blockeded when? - I'd love to see that
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