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UK General Election 7th May 2015: 4/29/2015 17:17:39


OxTheAutist 
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What d'you think?
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 4/29/2015 20:36:23


Жұқтыру
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Polish Presidential election, I'm interested in, though these ridiculous "Christian" state politicians will win again.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 4/29/2015 20:50:47

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Don't care, I've already voted by postal vote.

But if you are interested, a company that correctly predicted the last US presidential election in every single state has made a prediction for our election.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

Edited 4/29/2015 21:04:39
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 4/29/2015 21:01:24


OxTheAutist 
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Notice how most of the counties of Scotland are voting for the right party.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/1/2015 12:42:48


[WL] Colonel Harthacanute
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The SNP proves that Scotland should be banned from voting in general elections.

Plaid are alright, but Labour and UKIP are more popular than them.

Conservatives are the most popular all over the South.

Labour will win Wales and the Midlands but nothing much else.

UKIP will take over much of the North.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/1/2015 23:21:37

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The SNP proves that Scotland should be banned from voting in general elections.

Do you understand the concept of democracy?

Plaid are alright

No, Plaid are just silly, but not many people in Wales vote for them, so I don't really care what they have to say.

but Labour and UKIP are more popular than them[Plaid Cymru]

Well, UKIP and PC will probably win a similar number of seats. But yes, Labour are going to win more seats than PC, that is pointing out the obvious.


Conservatives are the most popular all over the South.

Although, yes they will hold a lot of the South of England. However, the Lib Dems should be able to hold onto some seats in Cornwall, Devon and Somerset and Labour should be strong in the cities. For example, Southampton has a strong Labour presence.


Labour will win Wales and the Midlands but nothing much else.

They'll win about half of London and the Northern Cities as well, along with various other cities.

UKIP will take over much of the North.

No, UKIP will only get a few seats (most likely in south east England) because of first past the post.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/2/2015 06:11:20


[WL] Colonel Harthacanute
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They'll win about half of London and the Northern Cities as well, along with various other cities.


I doubt it. Labour haven't spiked in specific constituencies and their support is spread out.

No, UKIP will only get a few seats (most likely in south east England) because of first past the post.


Don't be so sure... UKIP's polls were a lot less than they are now before the European elections, and the vast majority of their support is in the north, not the south. The south is mostly Conservative.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/2/2015 08:43:31


skunk940 
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South is conservative, north is labour, Scotland is SNP, east is UKIP, west is Lib Dem.

Already voted by postal vote, voted Lib Dem
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/2/2015 10:44:10


Ska2D2 
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UKIP might get 3 seats. They'll be overjoyed with two South Thanet and Mark Reckless' seat. I predict they will get one.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/3/2015 15:41:18


[WL] Colonel Harthacanute
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C'mon. Mark Reckless, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage are safe seats. We can bet on David Coburn, Suzanne Evans and Nutall getting their seats. I am betting on a minimum of four and a maximum of eleven seats for UKIP.

Liberal Democrats are getting the necessary spikes. Maybe they might even take the Midlands from Labour?
Doubt it though... I'll give them an minimum of sixteen seats and a maximum of twenty seven seats.

Conservatives I am giving anywhere between two hundred and three hundred.

Labour between one hundred and fifty and three hundred and fifty.

DUP will win between seven and ten seats.

Sinn Fein will win between three and six seats.

Plaid will win no more than four or less than two.

SNP will get about sixty seats.

...and each of these parties might be able to get one each: SDLP, Greens, Alliance, Respect.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/3/2015 16:54:37

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SNP will get about sixty seats

Lol. They're only standing candidates in 59 constituencies.

Sinn Fein will win between three and six seats.

Well, they might win in a few constituencies but they'll end with 0 seats because they refuse to take their seats.

Edited 5/3/2015 16:56:04
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 04:44:13


Ska2D2 
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C'mon. Mark Reckless, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage are safe seats. We can bet on David Coburn, Suzanne Evans and Nutall getting their seats. I am betting on a minimum of four and a maximum of eleven seats for UKIP.

There not polling anywhere near enough in the constituencies for that number of seats. Check out Lord Ascrofts polling. Carswell might have a better chance than Reckless though as he is more popular an MP in his constituency.

David Coburn, Suzanne Evans and Nutall ... Not happening.

I'll take your bet though - I say 1 or 2 anything over that and you win.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 07:36:11


skunk940 
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Bring on the Conservative - Lib Dem - UKIP coalition!
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 08:01:26


Genghis 
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English government
(Noun)
Definition
1. Parliamentary Republic, democratic republic.
2. People with top hats and pipes and fancy suits
3. What American government should be like.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 10:54:43

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Bring on the Conservative - Lib Dem - UKIP coalition!

Hmm, UKIP unlikely, they'll win 3 seats max. However, The SNP are unlikely to be part of any deal after the election, since both Labour and the Tories keep saying they'll refuse to do a deal with the SNP. the Lib Dems will work with either, but are unlikely to win enough seats to make up the last few seats needed for a majority. It's the Northern Irish parties that might have to help form a government, and for all the anti-SNP media hype, the DUP and Sien Fien are not both worrying propositions as a 3rd party in a post-election deal. Sien Fien don't take their seats, so there's no need to bother with them, but the DUP are not a nice bunch of people, but would do better with some voters than the SNP.

Also, Genghis, since when did a democracy have to be a republic?

Edited 5/4/2015 10:57:14
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 12:23:08

(retired)
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Do you think that Great Britain will finally leave the European Union?
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 12:38:02

(retired)
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I mean in France I watched the news people said UK is likely to leave EU after those elections.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 14:59:13

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Do you think that Great Britain will finally leave the European Union?

Unlikely in the near future. First, that would require a referendum and a referendum would require the support of the majority in the House of Commons. I can't see that happening after this election.

Edited 5/4/2015 14:59:40
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 16:25:53

[NI] Lord eKell
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Speaking as possibly the only Northern Irish person on Warlight, and considering that Norn Iron is completely ignored in the whole election debate, I'll give a quick run-down of our parties and their chances

8-10 Seats; The DUP; think UKIP except without a charismatic leader or an attempt not to sound racist. (similar to the BNP)
5-6; Sinn Fein; claim to be radical left but will say/do anything for a vote, and don't take their seats anyway.
2-3; SDLP; Labour economically, but very conservative socially.
1-3; UUP; the old-fashioned Tory right
0-1; Alliance, basically the Lib Dem's, and the only relevant, non-sectarian party in the North.
(My party, but I'd be Labour in England)

I'd rather see UKIP in coalition with the Tory's, they're much less bad than the DUP.

UKIP will get 2-3, Reckless is in a marginal seat, don't read too much into by-election results they have low turnouts and usually go against the gov.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 16:27:54

[NI] Lord eKell
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Based purely on vote%, UKIP should do better than that and Labour should get at least 20 seats in Scotland, but FPTP is stacked heavily against them.

PRSTV is a much better idea
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 18:49:47


OxTheAutist 
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Labour should get at least 20 seats in Scotland

With Gordon Brown no longer leader of the Labour party, many many people have stopped voting for Labour in Scotland. The popular choice in Scotland now is SNP, and they will get almost all of Scotland's seats.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/4/2015 18:52:05

[NI] Lord eKell
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The SNP will get 50+, I meant that Labour would get over 20 seats if the result was even vaguely proportional, which of course it isn't
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/5/2015 07:19:56


[WL] Colonel Harthacanute
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To be honest even though I do not vote and I am politically neutral, I have much common ground with the Cornerstone Conservatives Jacob Rees-Mogg, William Hague, Boris Johnson, Peter Bone kinda guys.

There not polling anywhere near enough in the constituencies for that number of seats. Check out Lord Ascrofts polling. Carswell might have a better chance than Reckless though as he is more popular an MP in his constituency.


Lord Ashcroft is a Conservative and it is in his interest to poll UKIP low. If he can cause people to think UKIP have no chance in their constituency, he can convince many Ukippers to vote for the Conservatives.

I think many people underestimate UKIP's support in the North. I also think UKIP might get one seat in Scotland.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/5/2015 08:59:51

[NI] Lord eKell
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Nonsense, Ashcroft releases a publicly available database with every poll and so far no one from YOUGOV, IPSOS-Mori, or any of the other pollsters, have said his system skewed in anyones favour.

He just funds his polls, he doesn't do the actual maths in them.

UKIP would have to almost treble their national average to get a seat, they have no generational links and they have very little experience of a running a big general election campaign (The EU election was easier case turnout is low, no one cares and everyone votes against the Gov.)

And then there's the disaster of FPTP to get through, UKIP will get between 2 and 4, anymore than that and they'll have had a very good day
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/5/2015 09:48:50


Ska2D2 
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Well said eKell.

Like I said Harth I predict 1 to 2. And none in Scotland. Lol Farage gets ran out of Scotland everytime he goes there.

http://news.sky.com/story/1475174/farage-ukip-faces-obliteration-in-scotland

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/ge2015/nigel-farage-admits-chance-of-ukip-seat-in-scotland-is-a-little-remote-1.870910
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/5/2015 10:22:59

[NI] Lord eKell
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I hadn't noticed his prediction on Scotland, they'll be lucky to get over 5% up there! The SNP will get 50-56 of the 58, the Tories will get 0-2, 1-3 Lib Dem and maybe 5-6 Labour. UKIP didn't even get an MEP up there last time out
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/5/2015 17:47:38

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^Actually, there's 1 UKIP MEP from Scotland. However, he might not he healthy enough to last it to the end of the current term of the European parliament.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/6/2015 04:48:24


[WL] Colonel Harthacanute
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^Exactly. He is kinda popular up there.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/6/2015 05:20:45


Ska2D2 
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If I remember rightly they took the last slot? Anyway UKIP support has tailed off even since then. And it's definitely not concentrated in any area where they could get past the post first.

Even Farage admits Scotland isn't returning a UKIP MP. If their lucky they will get 3 across the UK. I still think 1 to 2.

On an aside it is a difficult situation where the Greens can poll 5-10% and return 1 MP in 650. UKIP poll around 12% and will return 2 MPs (Probably but anywhere between 0-6 is possible). Lib Dems also poll around 12% and they will return around 25 from 650.

Labour and Cons poll 32-34% and 32-36% and they will return in the 250-300 range each.

We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.
UK General Election 7th May 2015: 5/6/2015 08:20:30

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We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.


That's true, but when he had a referendum on AV, the no to AV campaign put out a bunch of lies to win. This was the sort of crap they put out in their political broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-obZ9OG_XKA

Guess what? There were enough people dumb enough to believe that. Of course AV isn't perfect, but it's better than FPTP, but I would prefer single transferable vote.

Edited 5/6/2015 08:21:38
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