yikes...this is a lot of information to process...

So, interestingly, my top suspect (clavicus) has now put out a list accusing my #5 suspect (kasparov) and my #2 suspect (kantos) as well as two others. Then he adds my #4 suspect (Arun) to his suspect list as an aside. Then he defends my #3 suspect (Lawlz). I don't entirely know how to take this. Add that to Arun's list seeming to become more and more mirrored to my own. I don't know if I should be flattered by this or worried that I'm getting played.

On the topic of JSA, I really would like to hear how we decided he was a confirmed villager in the first place. I will admit laziness on my part that when everyone started saying he was confirmed, I didn't research it myself and assumed it to be true(I'll look back again tonight), but now there is doubt about that? If there is seriously doubts about that, then JSA and his balls rocket to the top of my list, but I guess here's my two questions about that:

1. Why did we assume he was "confirmed"?
2. What leads us to doubt his status as "confirmed"?

Hopefully, I'll have some interesting data to contribute later tonight also. I've been meaning to look back through the chats to follow a certain thread backwards...hopefully it will yield something of value.

As a reminder, this is my previous suspect list. It only needs one update at the moment. The dead wolf needs to be removed. (yay!) I haven't really put much thought into whether I want to up-vote or down-vote anyone on the list after last turn though, so order is less important to me at the moment.
1. Clavicus
2. Kantos
3. Lawlz
4. Arun
5. Kasparov
6. Veigar - wolf

I am a confirmed villager because I am the idiot. I admitted I was the idiot on this thread after the second seer died. No one has counterclaimed me. Therefore, I must be the idiot.

3 reasons people have been unsure of my cleared villager status:
1) I am in favor of killing them (his balls)
2) Ska was the idiot, and if I was a wolf, I could possibly know that Ska was the idiot, and could claim it. This theory is proven false by the fact that Dom said that Ska was a villager that turned into a wolf.
3) The idiot role could potentially be hidden still. Reason that doesn't make sense: Logically, there was around a 70% chance that the idiot role was already out after the 2 seers died. If I was a wolf, it'd be extremely risky and unworth the risk to claim idiot. If someone counterclaims, I would die within the next two lynches almost certainly. Relying on the 30% chance that the idiot was a hidden role is not worth it from my perspective, and now there is an even greater chance that the idiot role had been given to someone more recently. So logically, there is an 80% chance the idiot is out, and I am the only one to claim it. Therefore, logic implies that I am the idiot and not a wolf.

Need more proof? I just led the lynching of a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have led the lynching of a villager.

So is his balls the only one who is accusing you (JSA) of not being village or are there others? (I looked back 4 pages and didn't see anyone else...)

Just quickly. I am not accusing jay of being a wolf. I was chatting to Arun and discussing why skunk might be holding back his information. I mooted the possibility that it might be because he doesnt beleive jay is confirmed a wolf. That is as far as it went. Discussion.

Arun immediately went to jay to tell him and between them, they have decided that I am a wolf now. Final confirmation that hes 100% village hangs on on the answer to my question to Dom above. Even then I will still believe he's village due to a post before ska's role change talking of being a seer or something. It is out there on my first list.

For the record I do not think jay is a wolf and I do not think Arun is a wolf. I asked Arun not to bring this idea to jay because I knew this would happen, obscuring any actual scum hunting and giving the wolves a very easy bandwagon. I'm glad to see many are already avoiding jumping on.

@lawlz: as I have said you are happy to put in the effort and give an explanation when the gallows are in front of you. Where is that kind of explanation about your voting? The only post i can remember you writing more than a line or two was defensive, and it used a real life excuse which I can't possibly believe. You are back again now being defensive.

My list
Lawlz
Hhh
Kantos

There is another wolf maybe but we Dont need to catch that one yet as they will be forced to vote with the village and offer up info with fairly regular posts.

Edited 2014-10-07 05:47:56

Kantos is wolf.
Ace Windu is wolf.
HHH is wolf.

Lawlz not sure.

Edited 2014-10-07 05:47:05

VOTE PULSEY

You can only lynch mere mortals.

Edited 2014-10-07 05:49:00

you are happy to put in the effort and give an explanation when the gallows are in front of you. Where is that kind of explanation about your voting?

Has it occured that some players are not well suited for the task of leadership? Certain people are natural born introverts. We don't need a group full of Alphas, we need the betas too, the sheep for the leaders to guide. This was my role, the humble sheep.

Theres your answer

Yet you have not been a humble sheep at all.

Anyway, no I disagree again, we need everyone to contribute (see above). The humble sheep is an ideal place for a wolf to hide.

Edited 2014-10-07 06:10:05

Being a sheep is a metaphor for follower. I have basically been a follower, except a couple times (I.E you for calling me a troll, Arun for his attitude).

In fact, part of my silence this game is to avoid unnecessary conflict and my ultimate lynch due to losing the popularity contest. Specifically I mean keeping my head down to avoid Arun, who is now a confirmed villager, who has in the past targete me for sounding "not village" despite my innocence. But then again, part of my silence is just....following and listening. Most of what you guys say makes sense so I don't think too much on it.

Lawlz, I realise it was a metaphore and that you are not actually a sheep. Keeping your head down and coming out only when accused is wolf like. That is exactly what I was saying.

Start thinking for yourself please.

You've never followed the village, Lawlz. However I'd urge people to not vote Lawlz this round. I'm happy for anyone in my top 3 to go, but I'd rather kill His Balls if he's a wolf.

I understand you would want to kill me if I'm a wolf. So please start again, prove to yourself that I am. You will find nothing even close to the the evidence you will find for lawlz or hhh or Kantos.

You have zero proof, except one mistake where I meant to say "I won't lynch them both unless I think they're wolves" v. "I won't lynch two wolves"

Has anyone looked at any voting patterns lately. I'm not just talking about who has been wrong. The wolves know who the wolves are so arent gonna just keep being wrong, being wrong the most is not really a tell at all. There is info there though, especially in things like timing of votes, story changed without reason, ingenuine votes, associations with known wolves, etc.

When I get home I might give it another try if my main defence doesn't stand up.

Also a question to those who want me lynched. My defence will rely on me putting a better case together for someone else. It will be aimed at those not contributing anything of worth which is what a wolf does. Do you accept this as the biggest scum tell in the game? Because if not it doesn't look like I'll get a bite and therefore I can't put any solid case forward except maybe vote analysis.

LYNCH ALL LURKERS

Lawlz I have no proof of course. I will make as good ancase as I can though. Please do likewise, for me, or for anyone else you believe might be a wolf.

You've never followed the village, Lawlz.

Really? Prove I didnt follow more times than I did.

Out of the goodness of my heart, here you go Arun <3


Majority:
http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=160

http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=540

http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=1100
(^^^No vote list. Lawlz 4, Viegar 6, No vote 1. Vote was cast for Veigar.)

Secondary Majority:
http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=340


Minority:
http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=960

No vote:
http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=55970&Offset=780

No more pure defence. Tell us who you think is a wolf and why?

ughhhh, I'm too lazy right now. I'll figure that out later, for now I'm just going to share a list

Dr. Stupid
His Balls
Arun