This is my ranking of relative "power" in East Asian countries:

1. China (Economic boom, people rapidly becoming richer, manufacturing)
2. Japan (Fully modernized, cutting-edge tech, high life expectancy)
3. India (Beginning to industrialize, manpower, but marred by crowding and disease)
4. South Korea (Wealthy population, high HDI)
5. Micro-states Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and Brunei (Dense, wealthy population)
6. Russia (Economic boom, immense amount of natural resources)
7. Taiwan (Democratic nation, wealthy population, high HDI)
8. Thailand and Malaysia (Decently wealthy population)
9. Philippines (Western connections, population avoids poverty)
10. Vietnam and Laos (Communist economies beginning to transform into a mixed economy)
11. Burma and Cambodia (Government difficulties, poor population)
12. Indonesia and Bangladesh (Have potential that hasn't yet been reached)
13. Nepal, Sri Lanka, East Timor (Low population and land area)
14. North Korea, Mongolia, Bhutan (Low HDI, population distribution uneven)

Vietnamese still living in Vietnam here. Here is what I thought about the situation:

1 - The whole thing with the isles and the sea is just a plan made by the Chinese communist leaders to steer the focus of the Chinese in China into nationalism and forget about the real problems in China ( corruption, tyranny, economical disparity, injustice, pollution, human rights ...). The scheme of the Chinese Communists ( I mean the leaders here) is pretty simple, they want to tell the mass that: " Hey, of course there are problems in China and within the party but we have bigger problems to deal with. Therefore you (the mass) need us (the party) to fight against the evil Japan and the ungrateful Vietnam and make China become a powerhouse to restore our pride".

One thing you should notice is that these shits have always been happening right before some big political events in China (a big change is about to happen within the Chinese communist party and the Chinese leaders are fighting with each other. A high profiled Chinese communist - Bo Xi Lai - just got dethroned and jailed and the factions within the Chinese Communist Party are trying to re-distribute power). After everything is settled down, everything will be back to normal (or somewhat normal).

2 - IMO, there wont be a big war waged by China but small, transient ones can happen. This is because as I said above, the China communist leaders hate each other more than how a typical Muslim hates a Jew. These Commies are too busy to fight and compete with each other to care about fighting against other countries. And a real war against Japan or Vietnam or Taiwan can be a very risky move for any leader of China. If they win, thats good, the leaders still hold the power. But if they lose, it can cost the leaders everything, even their own lives. The battle inside the communist politburo is very fierce (Im talking about what I know in Vietnam) so a big mistake like losing a war can be very devastating to one faction and be a huge opportunity for the other ones. Thats why the Chinese leaders wont make such move.

But of course, whenever some political scandal happens or the Chinese mass become angry toward the party, China will trigger the problems with the islands, Tibet, China-vs-America ... again to redirect public opinion.

3 - Its very hard for Chin

I was never really made aware of any anti-Vietnamese sentiment in China. They certainly hate the Japanese, but I have never hear anything against Vietnamese.

Cont'd from above

3- Its very hard for China to surpass the US economically. America is playing a very subtle tactic here. They invest a lot of money into China but these money arent distributed evenly between Chinese, only a small number of ppl will get benefit from the economical growth in China, ie the rich. The rest of the population will suffer the consequences of the economical growth like pollution, stress, economical disparity ...

And when the US pours money into China, they are just investing. Because the rich Chinese (they are generally smarter than the rest of population) will start caring about other things than just money. So they will tend to move to other countries to enjoy things that they cannot have in China, ie: more kids, better environments, human rights ... and America is the most common choice. So the money that the US have invested into China will return to America from the rich Chinese who immigrate to the US or just come to the US to shop (conspicuous consumption is pretty traditional and conspicuous among Chinese and Vietnamese). Thats why China will still remain to be a factory.

4 - Asia has always been full of hatred between each other. Koreans always hate the Japs. Chinese has been butthurt by Japs for centuries. Japs are xenophobic toward every other countries in Asia. Pakistan and India will still hate each other. Cambodians always hate Vietnamese and Thais. And Vietnamese always detest anything from China ( that of course doesnt apply to every individual, but this observation is still right in the big picture scale.)

5 - And there will be no winners and losers here. Many ppl tend to analyze politics as a game between nations and countries. I myself tend to see politics as a game of individuals. Just like a game in Warlight, its a battle between you and me instead of between the red and blue armies.

And in the current political game, you (everybody here) and I are just troops to be forced to deploy or move into a territory and die. And if you think you are free, then you are a neutral territory then, you still have a lot of chance to be killed anyway. Just check your stats after every game to see how many troops (yours, your enemies's and neutral) have been killed.

Perhaps the best thing is to be an abandoned neutral territory, but you still can be in trouble if you are holding a strategic point.

6 - Meanwhile, there is a huge fighting between communist leaders in Vietnam. Within a month, several super rich guys and medium-profiled communists in Vietnam have been jailed. Shits are so entertaining to watch :D

I do not really trust future projections of other countries that news sources provide. I know that a few years ago it was predicted that Japan will have a larger economy than the US, but that never happened. The same type of predictions are being made for India and so far they do not meet expectations. If anyone will win out over other asian countries I think it will be China. Does anyone else feel the same way?

As someone who has lived in Shanghai for 4 years, I would say that visiting certain parts of China honestly blows peoples minds. Whilst there are the rural areas of beauty, these are expected by people who visit. They do not expect Shanghai to be as modern as it is. Wealth has turned it into one of the most impressive cities in the world. The night skyline looks like something out of a cyberpunk movie like Bladerunner or one of the great anime cyberpunks like Ghost in the Shell or Akira.

For someone who wants to see what I mean, just look at shanghai at night across the bund:

http://www.chinatourguide.com/china_photos/shanghai/attractions/hrc_shanghai_huangpu_night_view.jpg

To put it in perspective, the three biggest buildings, the one in the foreground that looks like something out of a 1980s scifi (the pearl tower), and the sharp looking building (Jin Mao Tower) and the bottle opener at the back are amongst the tallest buildings in the world. The bottle opener (or the SWFC) is the tallest building in mainland China and is 494 meters, making it in the top 5 biggest buildings in the world, incidentally also has the highest observation deck in the world.

I don't think people realise to the extent that China has modernized, but it is obvious, especially when you go to Shanghai or Hongkong, how China passing the US can easily be a reality.

Just saw this as well:

And when the US pours money into China, they are just investing. Because the rich Chinese (they are generally smarter than the rest of population) will start caring about other things than just money. So they will tend to move to other countries to enjoy things that they cannot have in China, ie: more kids, better environments, human rights ... and America is the most common choice. So the money that the US have invested into China will return to America from the rich Chinese who immigrate to the US or just come to the US to shop (conspicuous consumption is pretty traditional and conspicuous among Chinese and Vietnamese). Thats why China will still remain to be a factory.






Unfortunately as someone who knows some rich chinese people well, they don't care about living in the US that much or human rights or democracy a huge amount. This is often a flaw of people who live under democracy, that people who don't want to be under it too. The one party state does things well in China and whilst they are protested by a small minority over certain issues (mainly corruption and discrimination of certain minorities and freedom of speech), most people are content to live under the state.

The American lifestyle is also inferior to that a rich chinese person can have (a quite rich chinese person can live like a God in China, only to be slightly rich in the US) and this is also the same for US expatriotes. Stuff is more expensive, they get taxed more. Itis a misconception made by people who don't know the lifestyle too well.

Similarly, people don't understand the one child policy and why it doesn't really apply to the rich chinese, who can essentially have as many kids as they want. They just have to pay for their kids education (which is cheaper than paying US tax). Most rich chinese will send their kids to private schools anyhow, which will negate this completely. Whilst the rich chinese may go to the US on holiday, most of the richest Chinese make their money within China, selling to Chinese people.

The main draw of the west for China (though it is different for India and other countries who do not yet have a similar lifestyle to the west in big cities), is not the lifestyle, but the education. The rich chinese want to send their kids to US and UK universities. Ivy league and Oxbridge are big draws for them as that kind of higher education system does not yet exist in China.

What i am learning in AP Economics may have some relevance here, Humans are a natural resource, because China has such a large supply of natural resources (humans) and land there economy will surpass America, especially because of the lack of regulations. In China it is much easier to start a business than it is in America due to the lack of regulations. In China you do not need to provide health care for your employes or have a minimum wage. In America both of these are required, which for someone working for a business is good, but for those starting businesses is bad. Due to the trouble with starting businesses and the lack of people, the economy in America will fall to that of China.

Also the American Military is the highest employing corporation in the world. China is the second, while China's economy flourishes so will the government, due to taxes, and with the government getting more money they will have a larger military. Also there is the Guns of Butter, the idea that a country can produce so much good, when they produce more military strength, there will be less consumer goods. This is the reason that America won the Cold War with Russia, Americas economy was bigger so while still being able to produce enough consumer goods, it still out produced Russia in Nukes and other military items. When China's economy surpasses America's they will be able to out produce America, currently the most powerful nation, and become number one.

Japan lacks the most important natural resource, humans. Along with this they have very little land compared to many nations. There interest in robotics is not completely for fun but also for necessity. With there small population, they require robots to make up for the work that there people can't. Due to their robots, they will remain a player in the world economy for now.

This is all from the point of view of a 16 year old American so some of it is probably wrong, please let me know what is so i can better educate myself

Some very interesting observations here.

I am in South Korea and like people have said about the modernity of some cities in China. Seoul and South Korea can definately not be considered 3rd world or developing it is the 12th largest economy in the world Seoul is one of the biggest in the world and everything is very modern.

Park Chung-hee set Korea on the road to it's current status developing the economy and also the rural areas (No need to go into his controversies here). So South Korea does not have the poor rural areas in the same way that China does the economy is more evenly spread - though it still has East - West disparities. But then it is smaller. South Korea also has it's own soft power as Ironheart touched on in music (K-pop) it is exceeding Japan as an exporter also in gaming and T.V and film it exports culture. So I think it will continue to do well, utilising soft diplomatic power and real economic power. Whilst it certainly has problems - low birth rates and the North Korean issue. Which places it in the American camp, though this drawback also gives it access to high end military hardware and training and a firm alliance with the U.S.

But like a lot of Asian countries this century it will struggle with inflation, as the populace gets richer wages go up and goods cost more. China is buffered from this to a large extent by it's large labour force but I still think we will see a relative rise in Asian wages compared to Western wage rises making it harder for an export driven economy to thrive.

Alababi mentions drum beating in China to distract attention from any internal problems and I do think he makes a pertinent point. The presumed new Chinese leader is no where to be seen and China sends ships to Sensaku/Diaoyu this is a tactic that probably all governements use to an extent - Americans will no doubt remember how terror warnings would coincide with elections not so long ago. And like other states with a similar structure a war is a dangerous thing to fight if you cannot command an immediate and comprehensive victory. So China will probably avoid full blown war with Japan, South Korea or VIetnam etc. Much easier to focus on countries like the Phillipenes who lack a navy.

(Ironheart the Vietnamese see the Chinese as historical invaders due to history and see their northern neighbour as a dangerous threat, as the threat only goes one way it''s understandable that the Chinese don't care so much.)

And I am wary of seeing the Chinese system as only positive for it's economy there are some correlations between it's rising super-power status and differing ideologies threatening America as with the U.S.S.R - American cold war. And the totaliatarian state of the U.S.S.R eventually imploded - taking many observers by surpries at the completeness of the collapse. Whilst China is certainly plotting a different course we can never be completely sure what will happen over the next decades.

I've said so much and yet I know I have missed so much. But a very interesting read so far. :)

In terms of biggest employers, believe top 10 goes according to wikipedia:

1.US: Department of Defense (3.2 million)
2. China: People's Liberation Army (2.3 million)
3. US: Walmart (2.1 million)
4. US: McDonald's 1.9 million (including franchises (about 90% franchises)
5. UK: National Health Service (1.7 million)
6. China: National Petroleum Corporation (1.6 million)
7. China: State Grid Corporation of China (1.5 million)
8. India: Indian Railways (1.4 million)
9. India: Indian Armed Forces (1.3 million)
10. Taiwan: Foxconn (1.2 million)

As expected, the list is dominated by the US (300mill), China (1.3 bill) and India (1.2 bill) as the three most populous countries in the world. However, the US DOD figure quoted includes civilian staff, the Chinese figure doesnt. Comparing the actual military sizes, the US slips down to 6th at about 1.55 million.

Also, Japan has a massive population proportional to the size of the Island (similar to the UK in that respect) and is just under 1/2 the size of the pop of the US at 130 million. Why robotics? There are several reasons for it. You could talk about the meiji restoration, but truthfully a lot of it is to do with mecha anime/manga, especially the Gundam anime and figurines and Astroboy.

Actually, Ryan, China does have minimum wage laws that vary from province to province (and in some cases city to city). According to Wikipedia, the low end of the spectrum is around 600RMB, or about $95, in poor provinces like Jiangxi. In richer areas near the South coast, such as Shenzhen, the minimum wage is much higher at around 1300RMB, or about $200.

Of course, that is merely the law. I am sure there are massive numbers of people who are cheated out of their wages.

Tsuguri is definitely right, in terms of the amazing lives of the rich Chinese. They truly can do just about anything they want, as long as they are relatively quiet about it. Still, I think they like to send their children to Western universities (for the bragging rights, at the very least), and I have heard that some of them have money stashed away in the West for quick escapes.

nice how the topic changes from islands to minimum wages. :)
i'm no good at politics, but of course i support my motherland's (China) claim to the islands. :P

The topic was not so much the islands as how the disputes highlight the at times fractious nature of Asian politics, they highlight the tensions between so many of the countries in the area. And allow other states like the U.S to get involved - by supporting it's former colony The Philippines and generally trying to shore up a pro-U.S block in the region to counter the growing influence of China - etc etc.

A thread asking who owns which island(s) would be a bit boring imo - "It's ours!" "No it's ours!"

But I introduced them in the topic title as they perfectly highlight that Asian international politics has fault lines.

To get back to the islands, are there "official" owners of these hunks of rock? Perhaps the UN has it's official opinion on the matter?

I think the U.N is too diplomatic for that John.

Ok then, if the islands are officially "owned" by no country, then why do Chinese nationalists get arrested by the Japanese Coast Guard, while Japanese nationalists are not interfered with?

Slow down John. You asked about the U.N and I said I doubted they would have an official position considering that body consists of member states who each have a different idea.

So let's begin with the first islands - Sensaku/Diaoyu islands. These are owned mostly by a Japanese business man who has recently agreed to sell his islands to the government of Japan to add to the island that the Japanese government already owns. The islands are currently administered / controlled by Japan which is why the Chinese were deported.

Dokdo/Takeshima this island is currently occupied by South Korean police, two permanent residents and some government staff. As such the South Korean prime minister and Korean swimmers were able to visit the island.

The Spratly and Paracel archipelago - not as familiar with this area but to the best of my knowledge it is mostly not occupied by China - more so China claims it and so asserts it's right to do things like fish in the area, this is what is mostly bringing China into direct conflict with the other states who occupy or assert their rights in the area. Such as the recent stand-off between the Philippine coast guard vessel and the Chinese fishermen and naval ships.

South Korean President of course! Not Prime Minister.

what a silly discussion, cabo verde is the biggest asian power

Heh myhand you were right - it took longer than you thought but the idiots have arrived.